Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

Bernstein SocGen Upholds Expedia Market Perform Rating After Strong Q4 Results

Analysts keep a neutral stance as Expedia posts margin gains, raises 2026 EBITDA outlook and flags AI investments

By Ajmal Hussain EXPE
Bernstein SocGen Upholds Expedia Market Perform Rating After Strong Q4 Results
EXPE

Bernstein SocGen has reaffirmed a Market Perform rating and a $256 price target on Expedia Group Inc. following the company's fourth-quarter results. The update comes amid accelerating B2B revenue growth, consistent gains across B2C brands, a near 90.12% gross profit margin, and raised fiscal 2026 EBITDA forecasts. Other firms likewise tempered enthusiasm, citing AI-related concerns despite the quarter beating expectations on EPS, revenue and EBITDA.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen reiterated a Market Perform rating and $256 price target for Expedia, implying about 20% upside from the $212.67 price used in the note. This affects investor sentiment in the travel sector and equity markets tracking consumer discretionary names.
  • Expedia reported strong operational results: B2B revenue growth accelerated to 24% year-over-year, all three B2C brands posted consecutive quarters of growth, gross profit margin reached 90.12%, and trailing twelve-month revenue grew 7.61%. This matters for travel industry revenue and margin benchmarks.
  • The firm raised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate by 7%, revenue guidance implied 5.5% growth at the midpoint excluding FX, and capex is expected to remain flat year-over-year - items that influence financial modeling for software-enabled travel platforms and investor projections.

Bernstein SocGen has reiterated a Market Perform rating on Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) and left its price target at $256 following the company’s fourth-quarter report. At the time of the note the $256 target represented roughly 20% upside from the then-current share price of $212.67, and InvestingPro data indicated analyst price targets spanned from $225 to $387.

The firm highlighted several operational positives in the quarter. Expedia’s B2B revenue growth accelerated to 24% year-over-year, an increase of 6 percentage points relative to the prior quarter. All three of the company’s B2C brands recorded consecutive quarters of growth, and the company’s momentum supported a 90.12% gross profit margin. Over the last twelve months, Expedia’s revenue rose 7.61%.

Following the results, Bernstein SocGen lifted its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate by 7%. Management’s revenue guidance pointed to 5.5% growth at the midpoint when excluding foreign exchange effects, and the company indicated capital expenditures would be flat year-over-year. The firm also noted management’s growing commentary around AI investment as part of its outlook.

Bernstein SocGen observed that the stock had fallen about 27% from recent highs and was trading at 12.6 times 2026 EBIT. Despite the operational and margin improvements and the revised EBITDA estimate, the firm maintained a neutral stance on the shares.

Other broker activity following the quarter was mixed. Expedia reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $3.78, ahead of analyst expectations of $3.25, and revenue of $3.55 billion versus a consensus of $3.41 billion. The company’s EBITDA beat prior street estimates by 11%.

Cantor Fitzgerald trimmed its price target for Expedia to $245 from $285 but kept a Neutral rating, citing concerns tied to AI. Citizens reiterated a Market Perform rating and pointed to improvements in Expedia’s execution of strategic priorities.

Operational metrics reported for the quarter included total room nights and bookings growth of 9% and 11% year-over-year, respectively; bookings were up 10% excluding foreign exchange effects. These figures were presented alongside commentary that Expedia continues to emphasize personalized, AI-driven features and promotions as part of its value delivery.


While the quarter showed top-line and margin strength, analysts remain cautious overall. Bernstein SocGen’s neutral rating reflects a wait-and-see posture despite the company’s raised EBITDA outlook, steady capex plan, and the potential tailwind from a strong U.S. event calendar in fiscal 2026.

Risks

  • AI-related uncertainty: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral rating and explicitly cited concerns tied to AI, signaling execution or investment risks in AI initiatives that affect the technology and travel-tech sectors.
  • Stock valuation pressure: The shares had declined 27% from recent highs and trade at 12.6 times 2026 EBIT, presenting market-driven downside risk if operational guidance or AI investments do not meet expectations; this impacts equity investors and valuation-sensitive funds.
  • Guidance dependence: Revenue guidance of 5.5% growth at the midpoint excluding FX and the upgraded EBITDA estimate create execution risk if macro or demand conditions deviate, impacting revenue-sensitive travel and hospitality segments.

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