Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Bernstein SocGen Marginally Lowers Palo Alto Networks Price Target After ARR Falls Short of Guided Range

Firm keeps Outperform rating as Palo Alto posts solid revenue beat, reports robust ARR and continues strategic acquisitions

By Avery Klein PANW
Bernstein SocGen Marginally Lowers Palo Alto Networks Price Target After ARR Falls Short of Guided Range
PANW

Bernstein SocGen reduced its price target on Palo Alto Networks to $209 from $210 while retaining an Outperform rating after the cybersecurity provider reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results that showed roughly 15% organic growth, a modest revenue beat, and next-generation security ARR that missed the top end of its guided organic range for the first time. The company continues to expand via acquisitions and new managed services while other analysts also adjusted their valuations.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen lowered its Palo Alto Networks price target to $209 from $210 but maintained an Outperform rating; shares were trading near $163.50 and flagged as slightly undervalued per InvestingPro Fair Value despite a P/E of 103 - impacts equity investors and security software valuations.
  • Q2 fiscal 2026 results showed about 15% organic growth, a $14 million revenue beat helped by hardware firewall strength, and trailing twelve-month revenue of $9.56 billion - impacts enterprise cybersecurity spending and hardware vendors.
  • Next-generation security ARR was $6.33 billion excluding M&A, missed the top end of the guided organic range for the first time but was $5 million above the midpoint; net new ARR grew 11% organically and net revenue retention stood at 119% - relevant to recurring software revenue models and enterprise SaaS valuation.

Summary of analyst action and market context

Bernstein SocGen Group trimmed its target price on Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) to $209 from $210 but kept an Outperform rating on the stock. Palo Alto shares were trading around $163.50 at the time of the update. According to InvestingPro Fair Value estimates cited in the report, the shares are viewed as slightly undervalued despite a high reported price-to-earnings ratio of 103.


Quarterly performance and ARR details

The firm pointed to Palo Alto's second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, which contained roughly 15% organic growth and incorporated the recent acquisitions of Chronosphere on January 31 and CyberArk on February 11. Revenue beat consensus by $14 million, with hardware firewall strength cited as a supporting factor. Over the last twelve months, the company recorded 15.3% revenue growth, taking trailing revenue to $9.56 billion.

Next-generation security annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $6.33 billion when excluding mergers and acquisitions. However, that ARR figure did not surpass the top end of the company's guided organic range - a first under the guidance framework - although it did come in $5 million above the midpoint of guidance. Separately, the quarter showed an 11% organic increase in net new ARR year-over-year.

Palo Alto reported 35% year-over-year growth in platformizations and a net revenue retention rate of 119%.


Corporate strategy and product moves

The company announced a planned acquisition of Koi, a firm focused on Agentic Endpoint Security, intended to bolster Palo Alto's AI security capabilities and help close security gaps introduced by AI tools on enterprise endpoints. Management intends to integrate Koi's technology into Palo Alto's existing platforms.

In addition to acquisitions, Palo Alto unveiled Unit 42 Managed XSIAM 2.0, a managed security operations center service that offers 24/7 expert monitoring and includes a Breach Response Guarantee. The service is positioned as a response to a market-wide cybersecurity talent shortage and to help customers manage security outcomes more effectively.

Following its $25 billion acquisition of CyberArk Software, Palo Alto Networks will add a dual listing on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, a move that will make it the largest company by market capitalization on the TASE.


Other analyst activity

Alongside Bernstein SocGen's adjustment, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for Palo Alto Networks from $245 to $223 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing the company's strong positioning in security trends. These parallel analyst actions reflect recalibration of valuation amid solid operational metrics and recent strategic transactions.


Takeaway

The quarter combined a modest revenue beat and healthy organic growth with a notable point: next-generation security ARR, excluding M&A, missed the top end of the guided organic range for the first time, even though it was slightly above the midpoint. Management continues to pursue acquisitions and new managed services to expand capabilities and address demand-side challenges in cybersecurity talent.

Note: All financial figures, dates of acquisitions, and analyst ratings are reported as provided by the company and the cited analysts.

Risks

  • Next-generation security ARR failed to reach the top end of the guided organic range for the first time, introducing uncertainty around growth momentum in the core recurring revenue stream - impacts investors in cybersecurity and SaaS sectors.
  • Integration and execution risk tied to multiple acquisitions, including Chronosphere, CyberArk (acquired Feb 11), and the planned buy of Koi, could affect near-term operating performance and capital allocation - impacts M&A-focused strategy evaluation in software and security markets.
  • Market reception to strategic initiatives such as Unit 42 Managed XSIAM 2.0 and the dual listing on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange could vary, creating execution and perception uncertainty for stakeholders - impacts managed services demand and cross-border listing considerations.

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