Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

Bernstein SocGen Lowers Molson Coors Price Target After Tepid Profit Outlook

Analyst trims target to $45 and keeps Market Perform as the brewer issues cautious 2026 profit guidance amid cost pressures

By Avery Klein TAP
Bernstein SocGen Lowers Molson Coors Price Target After Tepid Profit Outlook
TAP

Bernstein SocGen Group cut its price target on Molson Coors Beverage Co. to $45 from $50 while retaining a Market Perform rating, citing fiscal 2026 guidance that met revenue expectations but fell short on profit. The brewer reported mixed quarterly results, announced cost savings and increased share-buyback authorization, and flagged commodity inflation headwinds that weighed on investor sentiment.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen Group lowered its price target for Molson Coors to $45 from $50 and kept a Market Perform rating.
  • Molson Coors' fiscal 2026 guidance met revenue expectations but fell meaningfully short on profit, and Q4 fiscal 2025 results missed modestly.
  • Company announced $450 million in expected cost savings over three years, increased share buyback authorization, and presented its "Horizon 2030" strategy at CAGNY.

Analyst action and trading reaction

Bernstein SocGen Group on Friday lowered its price target for Molson Coors Beverage Co. (TAP) to $45 from $50 and kept its Market Perform rating on the shares. Over the most recent week, the stock declined 9.2% to trade at $48.35, sitting well below the analyst high target of $72 yet above the low target of $40.

Drivers cited by the research firm

The firm pointed to Molson Coors' fiscal 2026 guidance as the principal reason for the target cut. Management's outlook met expectations on revenue but fell meaningfully short on profit projections, the analyst said. The company released its fiscal 2026 results after the market close on Wednesday and also presented at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference.

Quarterly performance and medium-term plan

Molson Coors' fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results missed estimates modestly, though the company reiterated a medium-term growth algorithm that the analyst described as exceeding expectations. Management also announced an initiative aimed at $450 million in cost savings over the next three years.

During its presentation at CAGNY, the brewer provided an update on its "Horizon 2030" strategy and expanded authorization for share repurchases. A financial research platform flagged the company's buyback activity as aggressive, and the CAGNY slide deck included a reference—on slide 21—to portfolio transformation through mergers and acquisitions.

Valuation view and research access

Independent platform analysis suggests the stock appears undervalued at current levels and that a calculated Fair Value implies potential upside. Investors seeking deeper analysis can consult the company-specific Pro Research Report available through that research service.

Other recent analyst reactions and company results

In its quarterly earnings, Molson Coors reported adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.16. Revenue, however, came in at $2.66 billion versus a consensus $2.72 billion, a decline of 2.7% from the prior year.

Despite the EPS beat, the company issued a disappointing outlook for fiscal 2026, pointing to significant commodity inflation headwinds that have unsettled investors. UBS reiterated a Neutral rating with a $50 price target, noting that the earnings beat owed largely to lower selling, general and administrative expenses and a favorable tax rate. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $50 from $47 while maintaining a Buy rating; that adjustment followed mixed fourth-quarter results and fiscal 2026 guidance below expectations, with the firm citing a tough industry demand environment and elevated Midwest premium aluminum costs as key challenges.

Context and takeaways

The combination of cautious profit guidance, ongoing cost and commodity pressures, and active capital-return programs paints a mixed picture for Molson Coors as it navigates shifting demand conditions and input-cost volatility.

Risks

  • Commodity inflation headwinds could pressure margins and profitability - impacting the consumer staples and beverage sectors.
  • A tough industry demand environment may weigh on revenue growth and market share - relevant to beverage manufacturers and retail channels.
  • Elevated Midwest premium aluminum costs increase packaging expenses and could erode earnings - affecting beverage producers and metals-dependent supply chains.

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