Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated an Outperform recommendation on Hyatt Hotels (NYSE:H) and left its price target at $189.00, a level that implies about a 14% gain from the stock's then-current quote of $165.39. Analyst targets collected by InvestingPro span a range from $150 to $224, and the service indicates the shares are trading slightly above their Fair Value.
The brokerage pointed out that Hyatt has underperformed key peers so far this year - lagging Hilton and Marriott by 7% and 9% respectively - attributing the shortfall to company-specific factors, notably a weak U.S. dollar and weather-related impacts. Bernstein observes these idiosyncratic issues have been absorbed into the company's fiscal guidance.
Despite the year-to-date underperformance versus peers, Hyatt posted a 16.35% total price return over the past 12 months and a 17.42% return over the last six months, underscoring the stock's recent rebound.
At the center of Bernstein's positive stance is Hyatt's fiscal 2026 guidance, which targets 13-18% EBITDA growth - the strongest among its peer set in the broker's view. That guidance is framed around what Bernstein characterizes as a conservative RevPAR growth assumption of 1-3% and excludes any potential upside from portfolio-level transactions. Hyatt's trailing twelve-month EBITDA is reported at $846 million, and InvestingPro analysis cited in the note indicates net income is expected to return to growth this year after the company recorded a $52 million loss in the prior period.
Hyatt's pricing strength is highlighted by performance at its Park Hyatt brand, where average daily rates rose 10% in the fourth quarter despite a difficult comp - the company lapped a 7.7% increase in ADR in the fourth quarter of 2024. Bernstein points to a favorable luxury mix as a significant tailwind and notes that demand catalysts such as the Chicago Democratic National Convention and the World Cup are expected to provide further support to upscale pricing trends. This ability to lift rates comes even as InvestingPro assigns Hyatt a Financial Health Score of "FAIR."
On cash deployment, the firm reports that cash returns constitute 58% of free cash flow and 30% of EBITDA - metrics that are worse than the prior fiscal year and below peer averages. For valuation, Bernstein applied a 15x multiple to 2027 EBITDA assuming 15% EBITDA growth, producing a valuation consistent with a 15% upside scenario. By comparison, the market is pricing Hyatt at a 22.55x EV/EBITDA multiple, a premium multiple that InvestingPro flags as an important consideration for investors.
Other company developments noted in the firmwide coverage include a significant fourth-quarter 2025 earnings surprise from Hyatt. Reported EPS was $1.33, far above the consensus estimate of $0.37 - a 259.46% surprise - while revenue of $1.79 billion slightly missed expectations of $1.81 billion. In the wake of the results, Stifel raised its price target on Hyatt to $170 while retaining a Hold rating.
The note also records an immediate leadership change: Executive Chairman Thomas J. Pritzker announced his retirement and that he will not seek reelection, citing his historical association with Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Mark S. Hoplamazian, Hyatt's President and CEO, is slated to succeed Pritzker as Chairman of the Board.
Separately mentioned in the broader corporate roundup, Hydro One Limited declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.3331 per share, payable on March 31, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 11, 2026.
Context and takeaway - Bernstein's reaffirmation centers on Hyatt's top-line pricing power in the luxury segment and a fiscal 2026 EBITDA outlook that outpaces peers even on conservative utilization assumptions. At the same time, investors should weigh the company's premium EV/EBITDA multiple and cash-return metrics that trail peers when assessing relative value.