Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

Bernstein Reaffirms $298 Target on Boeing After Strong Q4; Flags a Complex 2026

Analyst keeps Outperform rating as Q4 results and large contracts underpin bullish stance despite near-term cash-flow complexity

By Hana Yamamoto BA
Bernstein Reaffirms $298 Target on Boeing After Strong Q4; Flags a Complex 2026
BA

Bernstein SocGen Group maintained an Outperform rating and a $298 price target on Boeing after the company reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Revenue and free cash flow topped consensus, driven in large part by Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security division. Management reconfirmed commercial production rates and provided 2026 free cash flow guidance of $1-3 billion, but Bernstein cautioned that multiple moving parts make the financial outlook complicated. The firm nevertheless called recent share weakness a buying opportunity.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating and $298.00 price target on Boeing after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results.
  • Boeing reported Q4 revenue of $23.9 billion and free cash flow of $375 million, both above consensus estimates; Q4 core EPS was $9.92.
  • The company confirmed commercial production rates (737 at 42/mo and 787 at 8/mo), provided 2026 free cash flow guidance of $1-3 billion, and secured major contracts and orders that bolster defense and commercial backlogs.

Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated an Outperform rating and a $298.00 price target on Boeing (NYSE:BA) following the aerospace manufacturer's fourth-quarter earnings report released on January 27.

Boeing reported fourth-quarter revenue of $23.9 billion, above the consensus estimate of $22.3 billion. The firm said the stronger-than-expected top-line performance was largely driven by its Defense, Space & Security (BDS) division. Free cash flow for the quarter reached $375 million, also topping the consensus projection of $272 million.

Management confirmed production rates for its commercial program, holding the 737 at 42 aircraft per month and the 787 at 8 aircraft per month. For 2026 the company provided free cash flow guidance in a range of $1 billion to $3 billion, consistent with prior disclosures.


In its note, Bernstein outlined the drivers that will influence Boeing's financial trajectory, listing delivery rates, inventories, advances, the integration of Spirit AeroSystems, defense-related charges and capital expenditures as the principal variables. The firm described this mix as creating a complicated financial picture for investors focused on cash flow dynamics.

Despite the complexity and a subsequent decline in Boeing shares after the earnings release, Bernstein characterized the pullback as a buying opportunity and said the case for Boeing remains strong even with what it described as a complicated 2026.


The earnings release also included a fourth-quarter core earnings-per-share figure of $9.92, a result that the note said significantly exceeded expectations. Revenue and cash flow outperformance were reiterated as core elements supporting Bernstein's sustained positive view.

Alongside the financial results, Boeing secured notable business wins and order activity. The company was awarded a $2.8 billion contract to upgrade F-15 fighter jets for the Republic of Korea Air Force. Announced by the U.S. Department of War, the contract covers the design and development of integrated aircraft systems with work slated for completion by December 31, 2037.

Commercial momentum was underscored by Air India placing an order for 30 additional Boeing 737 MAX jets to support its domestic and regional growth strategy, expanding its total Boeing order book to nearly 200 aircraft. Separately, Air India has grounded one of its Boeing Dreamliner aircraft due to a reported issue with the fuel control switch; that matter remains under investigation.

Additional activity in the defense supply chain was noted, with the U.S. Navy awarding Data Link Solutions a $248 million contract for tactical radio systems. Bernstein's coverage linked such industry-level contract activity to continued demand in defense and aerospace segments.


Overall, Bernstein's stance combines recognition of stronger-than-expected recent operating results with caution about 2026 cash flow variability. The firm has maintained its Outperform rating and $298 price target based on the quarter's results and the set of contracts and orders described above.

Risks

  • The firm highlighted several variables that complicate Boeing's financial outlook for 2026 - delivery rates, inventories, advances, Spirit AeroSystems integration, defense charges and capital expenditures - creating uncertainty for cash flow forecasts.
  • Shares declined after the earnings report, signaling potential near-term market sensitivity to the company's cash-flow trajectory and operational developments.
  • Operational issues such as the reported fuel control switch problem that led Air India to ground a Dreamliner are under investigation and represent execution and reliability risks to airline operators and manufacturers.

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