Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

Bernstein Lifts Lockheed Martin Price Target to $654 Citing Strong Backlog and Better Execution

Research house raises valuation multiple after the defense contractor beat Q4 expectations and issued robust 2026 guidance

By Maya Rios LMT
Bernstein Lifts Lockheed Martin Price Target to $654 Citing Strong Backlog and Better Execution
LMT

Bernstein SocGen Group increased its price target on Lockheed Martin to $654 from $586 while keeping a Market Perform rating, following a fourth-quarter performance that topped estimates and guidance for 2026 that exceeded both Bernstein and consensus projections. The firm pointed to improving execution, expanding backlog across divisions and a higher EV/EBITDAP multiple.

Key Points

  • Bernstein raised its price target on Lockheed Martin to $654 from $586 and maintained a Market Perform rating.
  • Lockheed Martin’s Q4 EPS of $5.80 and revenue of $20.3 billion beat Bernstein’s and consensus estimates; operating margin was 11.5%.
  • Analysts noted stronger backlog (book-to-bill of 1.7), no major charges for two straight quarters, and higher growth expectations for MFC and Space.

Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price target for Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) to $654.00 from $586.00 on Friday, while retaining a Market Perform rating on the aerospace and defense contractor.

The upward revision followed Lockheed Martin’s fourth-quarter results, where the company reported earnings per share of $5.80. That figure exceeded Bernstein’s internal estimate of $5.01. Revenues in the quarter were $20.3 billion, topping both the consensus projection of $19.8 billion and Bernstein’s forecast of $19.9 billion.

Operating performance also outpaced expectations. Lockheed Martin reported an operating margin of 11.5% for the period, higher than the consensus and Bernstein estimates of 11.2%. According to Bernstein’s research note, the company’s guidance for 2026 came in "well above" both consensus and Bernstein projections.

Bernstein highlighted the absence of significant charges for a second consecutive quarter, an outcome the firm interpreted as a potential sign that earlier execution challenges are being resolved. The research note emphasized robust backlog expansion across all Lockheed Martin segments, citing an overall book-to-bill ratio of 1.7.

In light of the stronger results and guidance, Bernstein increased its EV/EBITDAP multiple on Lockheed Martin to 16x from 15.2x. The firm attributed the multiple increase to a "stronger long-term growth outlook and less execution risk after two solid quarters," and it raised growth expectations specifically for the company’s Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) and Space segments.


Other firm-level developments cited alongside Bernstein’s action included Lockheed Martin’s own fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, where the company again reported EPS of $5.80 versus an analyst forecast of $5.75 and revenues of $20.3 billion against an anticipated $19.85 billion.

Separately, Lockheed Martin secured two defense contracts collectively valued at approximately $37.9 million. One of those awards was an $18.8 million modification related to a three-dimensional expeditionary long-range radar system.

Market peers also adjusted their valuation targets around the same period. UBS raised its price target on Lockheed Martin to $663 while maintaining a Neutral rating, pointing to growth in the MFC division. Truist Securities increased its price target to $695, calling out strong growth in MFC and noting the segment is expected to expand about 14% year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance.

Taken together, the company’s earnings beat, contract activity and several upward revisions to price targets contributed to a reassessment of both near-term execution risk and longer-term growth potential across Lockheed Martin’s key business lines.

Risks

  • Execution risk remains a factor despite the absence of major charges for two consecutive quarters - impacts aerospace and defense markets.
  • Future results depend on the company delivering on its 2026 guidance, which Bernstein described as well above consensus and firm estimates - impacts investor sentiment and valuations.
  • Contract awards and sizing were noted but limited in disclosed value, leaving some visibility constraints on near-term revenue composition - impacts defense procurement and revenue forecasting.

More from Analyst Ratings

Stifel Lowers JFrog Target Citing AI-Driven Security Concerns; Maintains Buy Rating Feb 22, 2026 HSBC Lowers Synopsys Rating to Hold, Flags 2026 as Transition Year Feb 21, 2026 DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026