Bernstein SocGen Group has raised its price target for HCA Healthcare Inc to $541.00 from $503.00 while maintaining a Market Perform rating on the shares. The investment firm highlighted HCA’s margin efficiency and significant share buyback capacity as key factors behind the move.
HCA shares are trading around $501.69, with a market capitalization of $114.48 billion. Bernstein updated its financial model after what it described as "a solid quarter of execution" from the healthcare provider. The firm noted that management has been aggressively repurchasing shares, a trend that has contributed to a high shareholder yield.
In its update, Bernstein raised its EBITDA forecasts for HCA by 2-3% over the next five years. The analyst house attributed the upward revisions to improved expense ratios and modestly stronger rate and volume dynamics. HCA’s reported EBITDA for the last twelve months stands at $15.49 billion, and its revenue growth rate is 7.08%.
Despite the higher price target and the upgraded EBITDA outlook, Bernstein elected to keep a Market Perform rating on HCA. The firm pointed to valuations that sit at the upper end of long-term ranges as a central concern. Bernstein also highlighted potential headwinds to future EBITDA expansion, citing a scenario in which rate growth moderates and compensation ratios stabilize after marked improvement over recent years.
Separately, HCA Healthcare reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that drew investor attention. The company posted earnings per share of $8.01, above analysts’ consensus of $7.45, representing a positive earnings surprise. Revenue for the quarter slightly missed projections, even as profitability outpaced expectations.
Those fourth-quarter outcomes — an EPS beat alongside a modest revenue shortfall — have informed market reactions and the analyst community’s assessment of HCA’s near-term financial performance. Bernstein’s adjustments reflect these developments, while its retained Market Perform rating underscores lingering valuation and growth uncertainties.
What this means for markets
- Equity investors in the healthcare and hospital-services sectors will weigh the higher target against valuation concerns noted by Bernstein.
- Fixed-income and credit-market participants may monitor HCA’s balance-sheet implications from continued buybacks and operating-margin trends.
- Analysts and investors will track forthcoming quarters for confirmation of the margin and rate-volume improvements that underpin Bernstein’s forecast revisions.