Overview
Bernstein SocGen Group has raised its price target for Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) to $206.00 from $195.00 while maintaining a Market Perform rating on the shares. The stock was trading at $202.61, close to its 52-week high of $207.11. InvestingPro data referenced in the note shows the share price has returned 125% over the past year.
Sales momentum and revenue trends
The Bernstein research note pointed to strong comparable-sales momentum, which the analyst said is supported by debit card data. That momentum is expected to continue from 2025 year-to-date, according to the firm, and dovetails with Five Below's recent top-line performance: revenue growth of 15.78% over the last twelve months and a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 16%.
Earnings cadence and guidance sensitivity
Bernstein emphasized that the retailer's fourth quarter remains the most important period for results, but also noted that a third-quarter beat is "well telegraphed" in the market. The note specified that any meaningful upside to the stock following upcoming earnings would largely hinge on the company's fiscal year 2026 guidance.
Comparable-sales outlook
On future sales, Bernstein described low-single-digit to mid-single-digit comparable-sales growth as "doable," while also cautioning that it is not guaranteed. The characterization underscores the analyst's measured view: the setup shows potential, but execution and guidance will determine how much of that potential is realized.
Broader analyst activity
Five Below has attracted a flurry of positive responses from other investment firms. BofA Securities upgraded the stock to Buy, citing confidence in the retailer's new leadership team, including CEO Winnie Park and CFO Dan Sullivan. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating with a $231 price target, highlighting potential growth tied to movie licensing opportunities in 2026. Craig-Hallum raised its price target to $240 after increasing its fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate. Guggenheim lifted its target to $225 following what it described as the company's strongest holiday sales performance in history. Truist Securities raised its price target to $236 while noting a 14.5% increase in comparable sales during the holiday period.
Market takeaway
The cluster of upgrades and target increases reflects investor focus on changes in leadership and strategic avenues for growth, with multiple firms expressing optimism about Five Below's ability to sustain momentum. At the same time, Bernstein's Market Perform stance and emphasis on guidance suggest a cautious respect for execution risk and the importance of upcoming corporate disclosures.
Key points
- Bernstein raised its price target to $206 from $195 and kept a Market Perform rating.
- Debit card data indicates continued comparable-sales momentum, in line with 15.78% revenue growth over the last year and a five-year CAGR of 16%.
- Several other brokerages issued Buy ratings or raised price targets, citing leadership changes, holiday sales strength, and potential licensing opportunities.
Risks and uncertainties
- Fiscal 2026 guidance will be critical to near-term upside and is the primary driver Bernstein identifies for post-earnings stock movement.
- Fourth-quarter results remain the most important period for the retailer, introducing seasonality risk into performance expectations.
- Projected comparable-sales growth is described as achievable but not guaranteed, leaving execution risk for sales cadence.