Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

Bernstein Lifts Deere Price Target After Strong Q1 Results; Oppenheimer Also Raises Outlook

Robust first-quarter earnings and upgraded guidance drive analyst target increases amid elevated valuation metrics

By Jordan Park DE
Bernstein Lifts Deere Price Target After Strong Q1 Results; Oppenheimer Also Raises Outlook
DE

Bernstein SocGen Group has increased its price target on Deere & Co. to $615 from $521 while keeping a Market Perform rating after the company delivered results and guidance that beat expectations. Deere posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and raised its 2026 net income midpoint, prompting another firm, Oppenheimer, to raise its target to $715 and maintain an Outperform rating. The company reported broad demand across small agriculture and construction, and management lifted revenue guidance for several end markets. Despite the positive operational momentum, valuation multiples sit above historical ranges.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen Group raised Deere's price target to $615 from $521 and kept a Market Perform rating.
  • Deere reported Q1 net income of $666 million and EPS of $2.42, both ahead of consensus, and raised 2026 net income guidance to a $4.75 billion midpoint.
  • Operational strength spanned small agriculture, construction and turf markets; construction order book increased 50% and revenue guidance for several segments was raised to up 15% year-over-year.

Analyst move

Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price objective for Deere & Co. shares (NYSE:DE) to $615 from $521 and retained a Market Perform rating. The adjustment follows Deere's first-quarter financial results, which outpaced Wall Street expectations and included an upward revision to 2026 net income guidance.


Quarterly results and guidance

Deere reported first-quarter net income of $666 million, about 20% ahead of consensus estimates. The company posted earnings per share of $2.42, an 18% increase versus the consensus figure. Management raised its 2026 net income guidance by 9% to a $4.75 billion midpoint.

Revenue performance also exceeded forecasts, with quarter sales of $9.61 billion versus an expected $7.59 billion. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 19.8% and a revenue beat of 26.61% relative to the cited projections.


Operational drivers

Deere identified strength across smaller agriculture and construction equipment. Dairy and livestock markets showed resilience supported by beef prices, while order velocity for turf and compact tractors accelerated. Construction equipment demand was supported by a combination of infrastructure spending, lower interest rates, robust rental demand and starts in data center construction.

Following the quarter, Deere raised its revenue guidance for small agriculture and turf from growth of 10% year-over-year to growth of 15%, and similarly increased its guidance for construction and forestry from up 10% to up 15%. The company's construction order book expanded by 50%, with demand broadening beyond North America into Europe.


Market reaction and valuation

Shares have climbed 42% year-to-date and were trading at about $662, near a 52-week high of $674. The stock now trades at roughly 37 times Deere's revised 2026 earnings per share guidance, which sits above the company's historical trading range of 12 to 25 times.

Analysis from InvestingPro indicates Deere is currently overvalued relative to its Fair Value, noting a high earnings multiple as one of its ProTips. The company reports a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.44 and has experienced a 2.35% decline in revenue over the last twelve months.

Deere's planned excavator launch at ConExpo is cited as the next notable catalyst for the company.


Other analyst activity

In addition to Bernstein's move, Oppenheimer increased its price target for Deere shares to $715 from $531 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Oppenheimer attributed its adjustment to strong construction momentum, a stabilizing agricultural backdrop and a shift from negative to positive earnings revisions.


Takeaway

The combination of a top- and bottom-line beat, upward guidance revisions and sector-specific demand drivers prompted multiple analysts to raise targets and underscore Deere's near-term momentum. At the same time, valuation metrics are elevated relative to historical norms, a factor that market participants will be weighing as they assess further upside potential.

Risks

  • Valuation risk: Deere is trading at elevated earnings multiples - around 37 times revised 2026 EPS and a P/E of 33.44 - above its historical 12-25x range, which could expose the stock to downside if growth expectations are not met.
  • Revenue trajectory uncertainty: despite recent beats, Deere reported a 2.35% revenue decline over the last twelve months, indicating potential volatility in top-line trends.
  • Concentration of demand drivers: a significant portion of construction demand cited is tied to infrastructure spending, lower interest rates, rental demand and data center starts; shifts in these areas could affect equipment demand.

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