Analyst action and valuation view
Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price target on BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) to $94 from $90 while maintaining an Outperform recommendation on the shares. The stock is trading around $62.62, a level Bernstein and InvestingPros Fair Value work indicate is below what the name is worth on their respective valuation metrics.
Guidance and VOXZOGO performance
The firm highlighted that BioMarins guidance for VOXZOGO came in under market expectations, although Bernstein noted that consensus estimates had appeared optimistic heading into the period. Company management has not provided guidance that incorporates the pending FOLD acquisition because the transaction has not closed, a factor that has amplified investor focus on the current VOXZOGO trajectory.
Bernstein added that BioMarins leadership is taking a cautious stance when assessing the likely impact of competition on VOXZOGO. The analyst group characterized the guidance miss as unsurprising given elevated consensus assumptions.
Near-term catalyst - TransCon CNP PDUFA date
The next identifiable catalyst called out by Bernstein is the February 28 PDUFA decision for Ascendis Pharmas TransCon CNP. Bernstein assigns a 90% probability to approval. The firm models that BioMarins shares would likely move lower by a few percentage points if the regulator approves TransCon CNP, while a complete response letter could prompt a rise in the high single digits for BioMarin shares.
Post-close outlook and clinical readouts
Bernstein noted that the investment case and the catalyst pathway may become more pronounced once the FOLD transaction closes. Following that closing, the firm expects two Phase 3 readouts and the issuance of new guidance, which could provide additional directional clarity for the stock.
Recent earnings and analyst reactions
BioMarin reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing a mixed picture. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.46, missing the consensus expectation of $0.77, which represented a 40.26% negative surprise. Revenue for the quarter was $875 million, exceeding forecasts by 5.51%.
Market participants have reacted in varying ways. H.C. Wainwright reduced its price target on BioMarin to $55 from $60, citing heightened competitive pressure for VOXZOGO. Conversely, Stifel increased its target to $68 from $61, pointing to the value of the recent deal with Fold as a supporting factor.
Research coverage
For investors and analysts seeking deeper data and modeling, InvestingPro provides a Pro Research Report on BMRN as part of its coverage universe of more than 1,400 U.S. equities.
Bottom line
Bernsteins target increase to $94 reflects a valuation-based upside thesis even as VOXZOGO guidance fell short of expectations and the market awaits clarity tied to the FOLD deal and upcoming regulatory events. Divergent analyst updates underscore differing interpretations of competitive dynamics and strategic moves at BioMarin.