Bernstein SocGen Group has reaffirmed its Market Perform rating on Republic Services and kept a $220.00 price target after the waste hauler released fourth-quarter 2025 results. The research firm judged the company's reported numbers and outlook to be slightly below consensus, leaving Republic behind competitors on near-term growth projections.
Republic’s guidance for fiscal 2026 showed sales growth of 3.1%, a pace notably below the 5.0% to 5.5% range forecast for peers Waste Management and Waste Connection. On profitability, adjusted EBITDA growth guidance of 3.6% also lagged the 6.0% to 8.5% range posted by those rivals. Adjusted free cash flow growth for Republic was guided to 4.4%, versus peer expectations of 29% and 13%.
Across the key metrics Bernstein flagged, the company’s outlook missed consensus by roughly 0.5% to 1.5%. In light of the guidance shortfall, Bernstein indicated it expects Republic Services to modestly underperform in trading relative to Waste Management and Waste Connection.
Year-to-date performance in the sector shows Waste Management up 7%, Republic Services up 4%, and Waste Connection down 9%, a backdrop that underscores relative positioning among the three companies.
Analysts outside Bernstein have taken differing views on Republic’s prospects. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $255 price target, highlighting the company’s leadership in portfolio quality and operational execution and noting Republic’s strong pricing performance since 2022. Bernstein itself has adjusted its price target higher, raising it to $220 from $205 while maintaining a Market Perform stance and citing the company’s safety profile and the successful integration of US Ecology. Stifel reiterated a Buy rating on Republic Services despite its view that 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth may sit at the lower end of industry peers.
These analyst actions reflect a range of opinions on the company’s near-term trajectory even as the reported guidance and results place Republic marginally behind its main competitors on fiscal 2026 expectations.
Key developments:
- Bernstein retains Market Perform and $220 price target after Q4 2025 results.
- Republic’s fiscal 2026 guidance trails peers on sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow growth.
- Analysts diverge - Goldman Sachs starts coverage with Buy and $255 target; Stifel reiterates Buy; Bernstein raised its price target to $220 from $205.
Market context: The guidance miss contrasts with stronger peer projections, and Bernstein expects modest relative underperformance versus Waste Management and Waste Connection as a result.