Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

Bernstein Keeps MongoDB Outperform Rating, Sets $452 Price Target Ahead of Q4 Fiscal 2026 Results

Analyst house sees fiscal 2027 guidance as the immediate test for MongoDB after strong consumption-driven trends and mixed valuation signals

By Avery Klein MDB
Bernstein Keeps MongoDB Outperform Rating, Sets $452 Price Target Ahead of Q4 Fiscal 2026 Results
MDB

Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed an Outperform rating on MongoDB and maintained a $452 price target as the company approaches its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings announcement on March 2. The firm flagged initial fiscal 2027 guidance as the primary near-term hurdle, noting solid consumption demand but caution in separating demand-driven growth from easier comparisons and vendor-specific execution. Market commentary from other research desks remains generally favorable, with several firms keeping bullish ratings and $500 price targets tied to MongoDB’s AI exposure and Atlas revenue strength.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed an Outperform rating on MongoDB and kept its price target at $452 ahead of the company's Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on March 2. (Sectors impacted: Technology, Cloud Software)
  • The firm flagged initial fiscal 2027 guidance as the principal near-term hurdle and expects only modest revenue growth acceleration for fiscal 2027 despite recent strength in consumption demand. (Sectors impacted: Enterprise Software, Cloud Infrastructure)
  • Multiple sell-side firms remain positive on MongoDB's long-term prospects and AI exposure, with several maintaining $500 price targets and noting strong Atlas revenue growth. (Sectors impacted: AI Infrastructure, Cloud Services)

Bernstein SocGen Group has held to its Outperform recommendation on MongoDB and left its price objective unchanged at $452.00 as investors await the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, scheduled for March 2. The firm identified the guidance for fiscal 2027 as the main short-term test for the database software vendor’s momentum.

In its assessment, Bernstein pointed to a period of strong results in recent quarters that coincided with elevated consumption demand. However, the analyst house cautioned that it is challenging to disentangle how much of that growth stems from genuinely stronger consumption versus easier year-over-year comparisons or improvements tied to vendor-specific execution.

Taking a conservative stance, Bernstein is modeling only a modest acceleration in revenue growth for MongoDB in fiscal 2027. The firm also said it favors the company over the near term and showed a slight preference for the stock following the anticipated fourth-quarter report.

On valuation, Bernstein noted a roughly 20% decline in MongoDB’s market valuation in recent trading, with shares changing hands at $344.56 at the time of the note. That price level represented an 18% decline year-to-date, while still marking a 57% gain over the prior six-month window. According to InvestingPro analysis cited alongside the note, the stock registers as overvalued relative to its calculated Fair Value and appears on a Most Overvalued list, even as analyst revisions skew positive.

Analyst activity around MongoDB remains active. The research snapshot cited that 33 analysts have revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming reporting period, a signal of continued positive sentiment among sell-side firms.

Other research houses have been similarly upbeat about MongoDB’s longer-term prospects. RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating and a $500 price target, attributing upside potential to the company’s role in AI applications. BofA Securities raised its price target to $500 after highlighting strong expansion in Atlas revenue, which grew 30% year-over-year in the third fiscal quarter. Truist Securities also kept a Buy rating and a $500 price target following MongoDB’s local San Francisco event.

Market commentary also included a range of perspectives on AI-related opportunity and risk. Goldman Sachs has applied an AI Impact Framework to evaluate both the disruptive threats and potential benefits for MongoDB and comparable software companies. Stifel analyst Brad Reback reiterated a Buy rating in the wake of the company’s user conference in San Francisco, where MongoDB demonstrated new AI capabilities including updates to Voyage AI and launched an Embedding and Reranking API on MongoDB Atlas.

Collectively, the sell-side commentary cited in the note frames MongoDB as a company positioned to benefit from a large and expanding market and from demand tied to AI adoption, even as near-term guidance and valuation metrics provide checks on the pace of optimism.


Context for investors

  • Bernstein maintains Outperform and a $452 price target ahead of the company’s Q4 fiscal 2026 report due March 2.
  • The firm sees fiscal 2027 initial guidance as the key immediate hurdle after several quarters of strong consumption-driven results.
  • Other brokers, including RBC, BofA, and Truist, have stayed bullish with $500 price targets, while Goldman and Stifel have weighed AI-related opportunities and product announcements.

Risks

  • Near-term risk from fiscal 2027 guidance - Bernstein identifies the company’s initial guidance for fiscal 2027 as a key short-term uncertainty that could influence sentiment. (Impacted sectors: Technology, Cloud Software)
  • Ambiguity over the source of recent growth - It is difficult to separate growth driven by consumption demand from easier year-over-year comparisons or vendor-specific execution, which creates uncertainty around sustainability. (Impacted sectors: Enterprise Software)
  • Valuation compression - The stock’s valuation has declined roughly 20% recently and appears overvalued relative to InvestingPro’s Fair Value metric, presenting downside risk if analyst sentiment or fundamentals weaken. (Impacted sectors: Equity Markets, Technology)

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