Bernstein SocGen Group left its view on Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) unchanged in a research note published Monday, keeping a Market Perform rating and a $175.00 price target. The firm positioned that target within an analyst range of $158 to $205.
Analyst Callum Elliott pointed to a robust start to the year for the tobacco company, noting shares have risen 13.5% year-to-date. Supporting data from InvestingPro shows a comparable 13.97% YTD increase and a 31.06% gain over the past 12 months. Bernstein and InvestingPro each highlight that sector rotation into tobacco stocks, together with a weaker U.S. dollar, has been a tailwind for Philip Morris.
Despite the favorable momentum, Bernstein expressed caution. The research note warned that the company’s most recent earnings release could fall short of investor expectations, potentially provoking what the firm characterized as a "small negative response" in the market. InvestingPro’s analysis adds to that caution, indicating the shares look overvalued relative to their Fair Value and that technical indicators point to overbought conditions.
One item Bernstein singled out was the absence of explicit guidance for ZYN, Philip Morris’s nicotine pouch product sold in the U.S. The firm called this omission notable because investors had expected clearer direction on the product’s growth path. Bernstein framed the omission as "understandable in the context of uncertain regulatory approval timelines," but cautioned the lack of guidance could "stoke fears of ongoing share loss" for ZYN, a product the note said has faced competitive pressure in recent months.
On underlying fundamentals, the company continues to show strong profitability. Philip Morris reported a 67.12% gross profit margin and has increased its dividend for 18 consecutive years; the dividend currently yields 3.22%.
In related corporate updates, Philip Morris International Inc. posted fourth-quarter 2025 results with EPS of $1.70, matching analyst expectations. Revenue for the quarter came in at $10.4 billion, narrowly exceeding the $10.39 billion analysts had forecast. Following those results, Stifel raised its price target on Philip Morris from $180 to $200 while keeping a Buy rating, citing volume growth and expansion in operating profit margins as drivers of the stronger-than-expected performance.
Taken together, the research and recent earnings highlight a balance of forces for investors: solid margin structure and dividend reliability on one hand, and potential valuation and product-growth uncertainties on the other. Those mixed signals have left some analysts cautious even as the stock trades close to its 52-week high, about 0.98% below the peak of $186.69.
Summary
Bernstein held its Market Perform rating and $175 target on Philip Morris, citing strong recent share performance and robust margins but flagging the lack of ZYN guidance and potential for a muted market reaction to earnings. InvestingPro data shows meaningful YTD and one-year gains, while technical and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Context for investors
- Analyst range: $158 to $205.
- YTD performance: 13.5% (Bernstein) and 13.97% (InvestingPro).
- One-year return: 31.06% (InvestingPro).
- Recent quarter: EPS $1.70, revenue $10.4 billion vs. $10.39 billion expected.