Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

Benchmark Upholds Buy on Permian Resources, Sets $14 Target Below Market Price

Analyst cites expected strong operations and substantial free cash flow despite trimmed Q4 EBITDA forecast

By Marcus Reed PR
Benchmark Upholds Buy on Permian Resources, Sets $14 Target Below Market Price
PR

Benchmark Capital maintained a Buy rating on Permian Resources Corp with a $14 price target, noting expectations for a strong operational quarter and free cash flow in excess of $200 million despite a lowered Q4 EBITDA estimate. The firm highlighted ongoing cost declines and commodity-price driven adjustments, while other analysts offered mixed views amid recent corporate and production developments.

Key Points

  • Benchmark retained a Buy rating on Permian Resources and set a $14 price target, below the stock's trading level of $15.59 and conservative relative to a $21 analyst high target.
  • Benchmark expects a strong operational quarter with free cash flow above $200 million, and cited $706.5 million in levered free cash flow generated over the last twelve months.
  • Q4 EBITDA was lowered by Benchmark to $877 million from $959 million due to month-to-month commodity price shifts and weak natural gas pricing at the Waha hub; costs were likely declining in Q4, supporting the operational outlook.

Benchmark continued to carry a Buy rating on Permian Resources Corp (NYSE: PR) while assigning a price target of $14.00, a level that sits under the stock's prevailing market price of $15.59. The brokerage also flagged that its target is conservative relative to the highest analyst projection of $21.00, according to InvestingPro data.

The research note emphasized an expectation for a robust operational quarter and projected free cash flow exceeding $200 million, even as Benchmark trimmed its fourth-quarter EBITDA forecast. The firm framed this outlook against Permian Resources' recent cash generation, noting the company produced $706.5 million in levered free cash flow over the trailing twelve months.

Benchmark reduced its Q4 EBITDA estimate to $877 million from $959 million. The downgrade was driven principally by month-to-month commodity price adjustments, with Benchmark pointing to particular weakness in natural gas pricing at the Waha hub as a contributing factor to the revision.

Despite the downward adjustment to EBITDA, Benchmark observed that Permian Resources' cost base likely continued to fall during the fourth quarter, a dynamic the analyst said supports a positive operational view for the period.


Company profile and market metrics

Permian Resources is an independent oil and natural gas developer concentrated in the Permian Basin. InvestingPro data cited a market capitalization of $12.86 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.25, with the platform indicating the stock may be undervalued on its Fair Value assessment. A Pro Research Report with extended commentary and additional ProTips is available to subscribers.


Recent quarterly results and analyst activity

In its most recent reported quarter, Permian Resources posted third-quarter 2025 earnings that beat analysts' expectations, reporting earnings per share of $0.37 versus the forecasted $0.31. Revenue for the quarter matched projections at $1.32 billion.

Other broker actions have varied. BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and nudged its fourth-quarter EPS estimate to $0.30 from $0.29. By contrast, BofA Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, citing valuation concerns and lowering its price target to $16.00 from $17.00. That downgrade followed the company’s strong oil production performance and the completion of the APA bolt-on acquisition.


Corporate restructuring and shareholder alignment

Permian Resources recently completed a corporate reorganization that permits management and long-term holders to exchange Class C shares for Class A shares. The company has said the move is intended to better align management ownership with public shareholders and to simplify the company’s capital structure.


Outlook

Benchmark’s stance reflects a balance between operational optimism and commodity price risk. The firm’s expectation of material free cash flow, combined with ongoing cost reductions, supports its Buy rating even as near-term EBITDA was marked down. Other analysts’ actions underscore a mixed view across the broker community, with valuations and recent acquisitions factoring into differing recommendations.

Risks

  • Commodity price volatility - month-to-month adjustments to oil and natural gas prices, particularly weakness in natural gas at the Waha hub, reduced Benchmark's Q4 EBITDA estimate, presenting downside risk to earnings and cash flow projections. (Impacts energy producers and commodity-sensitive markets)
  • Valuation and analyst divergence - differing broker assessments, including a downgrade from Buy to Neutral by BofA citing valuation concerns, create uncertainty in investor sentiment and potential share price pressure. (Impacts equity investors and financial sector analysts)
  • Operational and integration risks - recent completion of the APA bolt-on acquisition and a corporate reorganization exchanging Class C for Class A shares introduce execution and governance variables that could affect management alignment and near-term performance. (Impacts corporate governance and investor relations)

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