Benchmark has maintained its Buy rating and $31.00 price target on Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR), keeping faith in the company's recovery prospects even after Schneider posted fourth-quarter results that fell short of expectations. Schneider, a transportation operator with a market capitalization of approximately $4.8 billion, is trading near its InvestingPro Fair Value.
The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.13 for the fourth quarter, below Benchmark's $0.19 estimate and the FactSet consensus of $0.20. Benchmark and market data attribute the EPS shortfall mainly to weaker-than-expected operating income in the Truckload segment. InvestingPro information shows that seven analysts have recently lowered their earnings forecasts for the coming period, reflecting growing near-term concern among some sell-side models.
Schneider's revenue in the quarter totaled $1.4 billion, shy of the roughly $1.45 billion analysts had anticipated - a miss of about 3.45% versus expectations. Within the company's segment reporting, the Dedicated business was identified as the largest contributor to the underperformance that drove the revenue and earnings gaps.
Looking ahead, Schneider set 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in a range of $0.70 to $1.00. That midpoint and range were roughly 15% below consensus analyst expectations and triggered a negative market reaction: the stock fell 9% on Friday, which followed a larger decline in after-hours trading on Thursday. InvestingPro data records that the share price has declined 10.29% over the prior week, and the stock trades at a relatively high price-to-earnings multiple of 50.36.
Benchmark analyst Christopher Kuhn noted that company management described the low end of its 2026 guidance range as conservative. Management's framing reflects an assumption of demand conditions similar to those prevailing in late 2025, even while the industry faces ongoing truckload capacity exits and potential positive catalysts that could emerge over time.
Despite pushing out the timing for a mid-cycle earnings recovery, Benchmark reaffirmed its constructive long-term view. The firm cited Schneider's positioning to benefit from a cyclical rebound in its Network business, an improvement in asset quality in Dedicated operations, and an eventual recovery in Intermodal volumes and margins as reasons to retain its Buy recommendation.
Market reaction to the guidance and the quarterly miss underscores investor sensitivity to near-term demand and profitability in trucking and logistics. Schneider's mixed quarter - a small revenue shortfall alongside an EPS miss driven by Truckload operating income - illustrates how segment-level dynamics can materially shape overall company outcomes and investor sentiment.
What the results mean
- The fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.13 tracked below both Benchmark's $0.19 estimate and the $0.20 FactSet consensus.
- Revenue for the quarter was $1.4 billion, approximately 3.45% below the expected $1.45 billion.
- Schneider's 2026 EPS guidance of $0.70 to $1.00 came in about 15% under analyst expectations and prompted a near-term stock price drop.
Analyst stance
Benchmark retains a Buy rating and a $31.00 price target, arguing that Schneider remains well-placed to benefit when cyclical conditions in Network, Dedicated and Intermodal improve. Benchmark's view reflects a longer-term, cycle-aware investment thesis despite the company's near-term operational headwinds.
Investor considerations
- Short-term investor focus is likely to remain on Truckload operating income, Dedicated asset quality, and how management's conservative guidance reconciles with capacity exits in the market.
- Valuation metrics, including a reported P/E of 50.36, and the recent 10.29% weekly share price decline will be points of attention for those weighing exposure to transportation equities.