Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

Benchmark Sticks With $705 Target for Strategy Despite Sharp Share Drop

Firm's sum-of-the-parts valuation hinges on bitcoin reaching $225,000 by end of 2026 and includes a 10x multiple of estimated bitcoin gains

By Priya Menon MSTR
Benchmark Sticks With $705 Target for Strategy Despite Sharp Share Drop
MSTR

Benchmark has maintained its Buy rating and $705.00 price target on Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), basing the valuation on a multi-part sum-of-the-parts analysis through year-end 2026 that incorporates bitcoin holdings, a 10x multiple of estimated bitcoin dollar gains for fiscal 2026, and the projected value of the company’s software operations. The decision comes as Strategy's stock trades near a 52-week low after a steep weekly decline and following a fourth-quarter 2025 earnings miss that saw EPS plunge to -$42.93 alongside a modest revenue beat.

Key Points

  • Benchmark maintains a Buy rating and a $705.00 price target for Strategy, using a sum-of-the-parts valuation through year-end 2026.
  • The valuation explicitly incorporates Strategy’s bitcoin holdings, a 10x multiple of fiscal 2026 estimated bitcoin dollar gains, and the projected value of the software business.
  • Strategy reported a large fourth-quarter 2025 EPS miss (-$42.93 versus a $2.97 forecast) while delivering a modest revenue beat (123 million USD versus 118.81 million USD), and its shares have fallen sharply, trading near a 52-week low.

Benchmark has reaffirmed its Buy recommendation on Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and kept its price target at $705.00, the firm said, retaining a bullish valuation framework despite recent volatility in the stock.

Shares of Strategy are trading at $106.99 and have fallen 28.54% over the past week, positioning the stock close to its 52-week low of $104.17, according to InvestingPro data.


Valuation approach

Benchmark’s $705 price target is derived from a sum-of-the-parts analysis that projects components of the company’s value through year-end 2026. The three-part framework explicitly includes:

  • the expected value of Strategy’s bitcoin holdings,
  • a 10x multiple applied to Strategy’s fiscal year 2026 estimated bitcoin dollar gain, and
  • the projected year-end 2026 value of the company’s software business.

Central to Benchmark’s continued positive view is the assumption that bitcoin will reach $225,000 by the end of 2026. That bitcoin price expectation is a key input to the firm’s sum-of-the-parts valuation and underpins the price target.


Recent financial results

Strategy reported a pronounced earnings shortfall for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) were -42.93 USD versus a forecast of 2.97 USD, representing a negative surprise of 1,545.45%.

On the revenue side, Strategy posted 123 million USD for the quarter, ahead of the expected 118.81 million USD, a 3.53% positive surprise. These figures point to a mixed quarterly performance: a material EPS miss paired with a modest revenue beat.

Analyst reaction to the results has not been described in detail in the available information. The report notes that earnings surprises of this scale commonly prompt reassessments, and that investors will likely monitor the company for further updates or strategic adjustments.


Context and implications

Benchmark’s reiteration of its Buy rating and the $705 price target reflects a valuation approach that places substantial weight on future bitcoin appreciation and on Strategy’s software business value as of the end of 2026. At the same time, the company’s recent quarterly earnings miss and the steep one-week share-price decline highlight near-term execution and market-sentiment challenges.

Risks

  • Reliance on a specific bitcoin price assumption - Benchmark’s target depends on bitcoin reaching $225,000 by end of 2026, making the valuation sensitive to cryptocurrency market moves (impacts crypto and technology-exposed equities).
  • Significant earnings volatility - The substantial fourth-quarter 2025 EPS miss introduces execution and profitability risks for Strategy, which may affect investor confidence and stock performance (impacts equity investors and software market participants).

More from Analyst Ratings

Stifel Lowers JFrog Target Citing AI-Driven Security Concerns; Maintains Buy Rating Feb 22, 2026 HSBC Lowers Synopsys Rating to Hold, Flags 2026 as Transition Year Feb 21, 2026 DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026