Benchmark has increased its 12-month price target on XPO (NYSE:XPO) to $210.00 from $165.00 and reaffirmed a Buy rating, citing the freight and logistics operator’s robust fourth-quarter performance and sustained margin progress.
The research note highlighted XPO’s adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.80 in the fourth quarter when excluding real estate gains. That result surpassed Benchmark’s own estimate of $0.78 and the market consensus of $0.76.
Benchmark drew particular attention to XPO’s North American less-than-truckload - LTL - business, which posted a 180 basis point year-over-year improvement in adjusted operating ratio to 84.4%, a performance the firm said outpaced normal seasonal patterns. Over the past three years XPO has improved its LTL adjusted operating ratio by 590 basis points, the firm noted, and did so while operating in what Benchmark described as "one of the softest freight environments in recent memory."
Company commentary on volumes and near-term expectations supported Benchmark’s view. January 2026 volumes were reported as flat year-over-year but ahead of typical seasonality, and rose about 3% after adjusting for recent storm-related impacts. Management provided guidance for fiscal 2026 that calls for flat volume growth alongside 100 to 150 basis points of operating ratio improvement.
Benchmark characterized XPO as one of its "highest-conviction ideas for 2026" and retained the stock on its Best Ideas list, pointing to what the firm described as durable margin expansion, disciplined pricing, and emerging demand catalysts as the primary drivers for its conviction.
Those results and the outlook prompted multiple other brokerages to revise their price targets following XPO’s fourth-quarter disclosure. XPO reported adjusted diluted EPS of $0.88 for Q4 2025, beating the consensus $0.76. The company said $0.08 of that $0.88 came from real estate gains; excluding those gains, adjusted EPS would be $0.80.
Stifel raised its target to $206 from $166 and maintained a Buy rating. Jefferies lifted its target to $215 from $180 and also kept a Buy rating, citing confidence in XPO’s 2026 performance outlook. Wells Fargo adjusted its target to $205 from $147 and maintained an Overweight stance, and BMO Capital set a new target of $205 from $170. Morgan Stanley increased its target modestly to $95 from $90 while keeping an Underweight rating, noting an 11% beat on EBIT versus their estimates.
Context for markets and sectors
The developments and analyst moves affect investor assessments of the transportation and logistics sector, with particular implications for carriers focused on LTL operations and companies prioritizing margin recovery and pricing discipline.