Benchmark raised its price target on SGHC Limited (NYSE:SGHC) to $18.00 from $17.00 and maintained a Buy rating following the release of the company’s fiscal 2025 results. The research firm pointed to a narrow fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA beat and full-year results that landed modestly ahead of consensus as the basis for the updated target.
In its fiscal review, Super Group recorded revenue of $2.34 billion over the last twelve months, a year-over-year increase of 50.5%. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter came in roughly 1% above consensus estimates, contributing to full-year adjusted EBITDA that finished modestly above the Street.
Management provided initial guidance for fiscal 2026 that Benchmark characterized as being above consensus. At the low end of that guidance, Benchmark interprets the numbers as implying about 7% upside to adjusted EBITDA relative to prior Street expectations. The guidance package also includes a projection of double-digit revenue growth and continued margin expansion.
Independent analysis on InvestingPro was cited in Benchmark’s note, with that platform assigning SGHC a financial health score described as "GREAT" and quantified at 3.57 out of 5. Benchmark highlighted several potential catalysts that could push results beyond the baseline 2026 outlook: expansion into Africa, what the firm describes as conservative player modeling, revenue and margin effects from World Cup onboarding dynamics, cost savings related to the Apricot integration, and margin optimization driven by Super Coin.
Benchmark reiterated both its Buy rating on SGHC and its Best Idea designation. The research note further observed that SGHC is covered among more than 1,400 US equities included in comprehensive Pro Research Reports on InvestingPro.
In related corporate developments, Super Group declared a special dividend of $0.25 per share, a move the company made amid record customer activity. Alongside the dividend announcement, Super Group reiterated expectations to meet its 2025 financial guidance, forecasting full-year revenue in a range between $2.17 billion and $2.27 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $555 million and $565 million.
Benchmark reiterated its Buy rating on Super Group, noting robust performance in casino operations and reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance, and left a prior price target at $17.00. Separately, Citizens maintained a Market Outperform rating and a $16.00 price target, commenting that the core business drivers remain healthy despite recent setbacks in sports outcomes.
Benchmark emphasized the company’s strength in online casino operations, which account for about 80% of revenue, as an important factor supporting engagement levels and margin stability. The firm also flagged multiple pathways to upside beyond expected 2026 guidance, which it interprets as broadly aligned with consensus estimates.
These developments collectively present a positive near-term outlook for Super Group, grounded in strong casino performance, an above-consensus initial guide for 2026, and a set of operational catalysts that Benchmark believes could add incremental upside.