Benchmark upgraded its valuation view on Saia Inc. (NASDAQ:SAIA), increasing its price target to $400 from $360 and retaining a Buy rating following the company’s fourth-quarter report. The research firm attributed the modest earnings shortfall mainly to elevated self-insurance expenses related to developments from accidents in prior years.
According to Benchmark, those self-insurance charges were the principal driver of the miss; when those items are excluded, the company’s operating income and earnings would have landed only slightly below analyst forecasts. At the same time, Saia recorded revenue that surpassed expectations and LTL operating metrics that were largely consistent with projections, indicating a degree of underlying operational resilience.
On volume trends, Saia’s shipments per day in the fourth quarter fell by a relatively small 0.5%. That performance was better than peers XPO and Old Dominion Freight Line, which saw declines of 1.5% and 9.7%, respectively. Management highlighted that the company completed its first full year operating with a national footprint, although Benchmark cautioned that the network is still in the early stages of scaling.
January activity presented some headwinds. Tonnage fell 7% year-over-year, a decline Benchmark tied to tough comparisons on weight per shipment and disruptions from winter storms. However, when isolating the effects of weather, shipments per day in January showed modest growth. The company expects weight comparisons to become less onerous after the first quarter.
Looking ahead, Saia’s management suggested the company’s operating ratio could tighten by 100 to 200 basis points in fiscal 2026, assuming a modest recovery in shipments and tonnage. That projection reflects management’s view that improvements in utilization and network density should support margin recovery as the national network continues to scale.
Other brokerages issued a range of reactions to Saia’s quarterly results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 for the quarter, a 38% decline from the prior year and short of several analyst estimates, including BofA Securities’ $1.88 target and the Street consensus of $1.91. The shortfall included a $4.7 million charge tied to elevated casualties from past accidents.
BMO Capital raised its price target on Saia to $415 but maintained a Market Perform rating. Susquehanna moved to downgrade the stock from Positive to Neutral, pointing to valuation concerns and adjusting its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate to $10.35. Morgan Stanley downgraded Saia to Underweight and set a $250 price target, characterizing the quarter as a "modest miss." Stifel trimmed its price target to $364 while keeping a Hold rating, citing the weaker-than-expected quarterly outcome. BofA Securities lifted its price target to $413 on the basis of margin outlook considerations, while retaining a Neutral recommendation.
The mix of analyst actions underscores differing views on how quickly Saia can translate its national network into sustainable margin improvement and the degree to which one-time insurance-related costs will affect near-term earnings. For investors, the key elements to watch will be tonnage and shipment trends, the trajectory of operating ratio, and any further developments tied to self-insurance expense.
Summary of reported items is limited to information provided in company filings and the accompanying analyst notes; subsequent developments that could influence results are not addressed here.