Benchmark has reaffirmed a Hold rating on Roblox Corp. (RBLX) as the company moves into 2026 with a mixed outlook, following a stronger-than-anticipated finish to 2025. The research house’s stance aligns with a broader analyst consensus that leans slightly bullish at 1.83, and follows a wide span of price targets running from $67 to nearly $167 per share.
According to InvestingPro figures cited by analysts, Roblox is trading modestly below its Fair Value estimate even as the share price has fallen 48.4% over the past six months. Benchmark highlighted that Roblox closed 2025 with fourth-quarter results it described as "materially stronger-than-expected," a performance that was underpinned by viral, creator-led content that lifted bookings, profitability and cash flow beyond prior expectations.
Despite the upbeat quarter, Benchmark drew attention to the company’s near-term guidance, which signals a "sharp sequential reset" in the first quarter of 2026 as the outsized contributions from viral content normalize. For the full year 2026 the firm anticipates solid bookings growth but warned of a flatter margin trajectory because the company plans to sustain elevated investment intensity.
Beyond the near-term cadence, Benchmark flagged longer-term structural considerations tied to rapid progress in AI-native creation tools. Those tools, the research note said, are enabling external platforms to increasingly generate higher-quality interactive experiences, a trend that could reduce the exclusivity of content produced inside Roblox’s ecosystem over time.
At the same time, Benchmark acknowledged Roblox’s "meaningful scale, distribution and network advantages," but regarded the combination of tougher near-term comparisons, continuing investment needs and emerging competitive dynamics as factors that raise uncertainty about the sustainability of long-term margin expansion.
Recent analyst moves and key metrics
- Roblox reported 63% year-over-year bookings growth in its latest earnings release, with total bookings of $2.22 billion.
- Piper Sandler said bookings exceeded its expectations by 8% and kept an Overweight rating while lowering its price target to $100 from $125.
- Oppenheimer trimmed its price target to $130 from $150, citing valuation concerns despite bookings beating consensus.
- Roth/MKM upgraded Roblox from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target to $84, referencing the company’s upbeat 2026 bookings guidance and a projected bookings compound annual growth rate of over 20% in coming years.
- TD Cowen reiterated a Sell rating with a $70 price target, pointing to worries about engagement trends.
- Jefferies lowered its price target to $70 from $85, noting fourth-quarter results were 7% above expectations and calling the first-quarter guidance likely conservative.
These moves underscore a wide range of analyst perspectives on Roblox’s financial health and medium-term growth outlook, with firms split between bullish takes on bookings momentum and guarded views on valuation and engagement dynamics.
What to watch next
Market participants will be monitoring how viral content contributions evolve after the Q4 spike, whether investment levels compress margins as anticipated, and how quickly and effectively AI-native creation tools reshape the competitive landscape for interactive experiences. Short-term share performance will likely hinge on sequential bookings trends and clarity on Roblox’s near-term investment cadence.