Benchmark reaffirmed its Buy rating on Expand Energy and maintained a $112.00 price target for the stock, noting that the valuation aligns with InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment which indicates the shares are trading below that level at $98.76. The firm pointed to a strong analyst consensus score of 1.46 - where 1 denotes Strong Buy - as supporting the bullish stance.
In the most recent quarter, Expand Energy reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.425 billion. That result sat between Benchmark's internal forecast of $1.525 billion and the broader consensus estimate of $1.36 billion. On a last-twelve-month basis, the company's total EBITDA stands at $5.49 billion.
Benchmark highlighted the company's reserve report as an important positive development. The report outperformed expectations on the back of extensions and revisions that were not related to price, with fuller disclosure scheduled for the company's upcoming 10-K filing.
Capital allocation and drilling plans were spelled out as part of the company outlook. Expand Energy intends to spend $75 million this year on appraisal activity in the Western Haynesville as it completes the first well in that program. Management's 2026 guidance is being driven by growth in the Marcellus, with production expected to increase by 200 mmcf/d by the end of the year.
Analyst projections compiled by InvestingPro show expectations for 99% revenue growth in fiscal 2026, and the service tracked that 11 analysts recently revised earnings estimates higher.
On a cash-flow basis, Benchmark models free cash flow of $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion for 2026 assuming guidance holds. From that level, the firm envisions $550 million being used for dividends and $1 billion allocated to reduce debt, leaving as much as $1 billion available for share repurchases. Expand Energy currently yields 3.1% on dividends and has recorded 30.7% dividend growth over the past twelve months. InvestingPro's commentary also notes the company operates with a moderate debt profile.
Operationally, Benchmark expects Haynesville volumes to be maintained at fourth-quarter levels through the current year. The company is also relocating its corporate headquarters to Houston and has launched a search for a new chief executive officer.
Market metrics and recent results provide additional context. Expand Energy carries a market capitalization of $23.63 billion and is rated "GOOD" on overall financial health by InvestingPro. The company reported fourth-quarter results that topped consensus on several measures - cash flow per share, free cash flow and production beat expectations by 15%, 13% and 1%, respectively - although management left 2026 guidance unchanged.
On the sell-side, Stephens adjusted its target for Expand Energy following the quarterly release, raising it initially to $146 on the strength of results and later trimming it to $140 due to a decline in gas prices while maintaining an Overweight rating.
Leadership changes were also disclosed. CEO Domenic Dell'Osso has stepped down, with Chairman Michael Wichterich taking on the interim CEO role. The company plans to complete its headquarters relocation from Oklahoma City to Houston by mid-2026, while keeping Oklahoma City as an operational hub.
Benchmark's continued Buy recommendation underscores the firm's view that Expand Energy's recent operational outperformance, reserve revisions and forward free cash flow outlook support a disciplined capital return plan and balance-sheet improvement. The firm emphasized these fundamentals alongside the company’s ongoing strategic and leadership adjustments.
Key points
- Benchmark reaffirms a Buy rating and a $112.00 price target for EXE; shares were trading at $98.76 versus an analyst consensus of 1.46 supporting the positive view.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $1.425 billion for the quarter; last-twelve-month EBITDA is $5.49 billion, and reserves exceeded expectations due to non-price related extensions and revisions.
- Benchmark projects $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion of free cash flow in 2026 with planned allocations for dividends, debt paydown and up to $1 billion for buybacks; company to spend $75 million on Haynesville appraisal and expects Marcellus-driven production growth of 200 mmcf/d in 2026.
Risks and uncertainties
- Commodity price risk - Stephens cited a decline in gas prices as a rationale for lowering its target from $146 to $140, highlighting sensitivity of valuation to gas price movements.
- Management transition - the CEO departure and search for a permanent replacement introduce leadership uncertainty during a period of strategic change, which could affect execution of capital allocation and operational plans.
- Reserve disclosure timing - fuller details of the reserve report are pending the 10-K filing; the market will react to any additional information when the filing is released.