Barclays has resumed analyst coverage of Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT), assigning an Overweight rating and establishing a price target of $116.00. The target implies approximately 15% upside from Medtronic’s prevailing share price of $100.88, with the stock trading near a 52-week high of $106.33.
Analyst target ranges for the healthcare equipment company span from $100 to $121, according to InvestingPro data, while the company carries a market capitalization of $129.3 billion. Barclays points to strong momentum in select product areas as the basis for its renewed positive stance.
Drivers of projected growth
Barclays highlights cardiac ablation systems and renal denervation as primary growth drivers. The firm projects cardiac ablation systems expansion of 60-70% for Medtronic, a rate slightly below the 71% growth the company reported in its fiscal second quarter and the nearly 50% advance reported in the first quarter. That specialist segment has been expanding at a pace well ahead of Medtronic’s overall revenue growth, which registered 5.34% over the last twelve months per InvestingPro data.
Within its commentary, Barclays identified Affera and renal denervation as "two of MDT’s most important growth drivers," and the bank expects that momentum to persist through the end of fiscal 2026 and into fiscal 2027. These initiatives are central to Barclays’ thesis for sustained top-line expansion in high-growth procedural areas.
Valuation and financial metrics
The $116 price target corresponds to a 14.0x EV/EBITDA multiple on Barclays’ projected next-twelve-months EBITDA of $11.8 billion. Barclays notes this multiple sits broadly in line with Medtronic’s cited long-term trading range of 13-14x and slightly above the bank’s view of the company’s current 13.8x multiple.
By contrast, InvestingPro data shows Medtronic’s actual EV/EBITDA at 15.7x when using last twelve months’ EBITDA of $9.57 billion. Those differing snapshots reflect the gap between recent trailing results and Barclays’ forward EBITDA projection.
Market position, execution considerations and near-term catalyst
Barclays expects Medtronic’s market share in atrial fibrillation ablation to improve "at a measured pace," noting that expansion is moderated by ongoing demand for mappers and field support teams required to bring new centers up to speed. That operational constraint is part of the bank’s view on the cadence of share gains, even as product-level growth remains rapid.
Investors should also be aware of an upcoming near-term data point: Medtronic is due to report quarterly results in four days, on February 17. Barclays and other market participants will likely watch that earnings release for confirmation of the company’s growth trajectories and margin trends.
Income profile and corporate health
Medtronic has a long-running record of shareholder distributions, having maintained dividend payments for 49 consecutive years and offering a current yield of 2.82%. InvestingPro categorizes Medtronic’s overall financial health score as "GOOD." The platform also notes it provides eight additional ProTips and deeper analysis within its Pro Research Report.
Strategic moves and regulatory progress
On the corporate development front, Medtronic announced an agreement to acquire CathWorks for up to $585 million, with the potential for additional earn-out payments. This deal follows a strategic partnership that began in 2022. Market participants have reacted favorably: Leerink Partners reiterated an Outperform rating citing the transaction as supportive of Medtronic’s move into high-growth diagnostics, while Needham upgraded its rating on Medtronic from Hold to Buy, pointing to early-stage product launches in multi-billion dollar markets expected to accelerate revenue growth.
Medtronic has also expanded access and regulatory approvals across several product lines. The company secured Medicare coverage for its MiniMed 780G insulin delivery system and obtained FDA clearances that allow the system's use with ultra rapid-acting insulins and with Abbott’s Instinct sensor for people with insulin-requiring type 2 diabetes. In Europe, Medtronic received CE Mark approval for its Sphere-360 catheter, a device designed to treat paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.
Conclusion
Barclays’ reinstatement of coverage with an Overweight rating and a $116 target rests on a view that product-level growth in cardiac ablation systems and renal denervation will outpace Medtronic’s broader revenue expansion and that valuation on forward EBITDA supports upside. Near-term results, including the upcoming February 17 earnings report, and execution on the integration of acquisitions such as CathWorks will be key checkpoints for investors assessing the durability of the bank’s thesis.