Barclays has adjusted its valuation on TPG Inc. (NASDAQ:TPG), lowering the bank's price target to $69.00 from $78.00 while maintaining an Overweight recommendation on the shares. The revised target continues to imply material upside from TPG’s most recent market price of $53.54, a level that is down 16.13% year-to-date.
The move follows TPG’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial disclosure, in which the company reported earnings per share of $0.71. That result beat consensus estimates by roughly 12% according to one report, and it also exceeded a forecasted $0.66, representing a 7.58% surprise. The outperformance was driven largely by transaction fees and FRPR, although core management fees narrowly missed expectations by about 1%.
On a trailing-twelve-month basis, TPG’s diluted EPS is $1.21. Analysts covering the company project a substantially higher EPS for fiscal year 2026, with consensus forecasts at $6.01.
Fundraising was a notable bright spot in the quarter. TPG raised approximately $16 billion in the fourth quarter, outpacing one estimate of about $9 billion and contributing to aggregate fundraising that exceeded expectations by approximately $3 billion. Management provided guidance pointing to continued momentum, with a target to surpass $50 billion in fundraising by 2026.
TPG also issued fiscal year 2026 margin guidance of 47%, which is 1.5 percentage points above consensus levels cited by analysts. Barclays highlighted the company’s longer-term fee-related earnings growth profile as a reason it still views the shares as attractive relative to peers, even after trimming the near-term price target. Barclays reiterated the Overweight stance, a position the bank originally established on January 28, 2026.
Barclays noted specific business characteristics management sees as durable. The firm pointed to TPG’s software business, which represents 11% of total assets under management, and described it as "quite defensible" as characterized by company management. Barclays also commented that TPG’s ongoing cadence of realizations should face limited interruption despite recent bouts of market volatility.
Investor attention to the stock has been mixed following the release. Despite the earnings beat and positive fundraising headlines, TPG shares declined in pre-market trading after the results were published.
Other sell-side activity included Goldman Sachs reaffirming its Buy rating on TPG and keeping an $80.00 price target. Goldman noted the company’s faster-than-expected fundraising pace and its expectations for management fee growth as supporting that stance. Following the fourth quarter, Goldman now anticipates $50 billion in fundraising by 2026, citing the quarter’s $16 billion in new capital and identifying the Credit segment as the principal source of the fundraising outperformance.
Overall, analysts are emphasizing the combination of an earnings beat, accelerated fundraising and above-consensus margin guidance as the primary drivers behind continued positive evaluations of TPG, even as some price targets are adjusted lower. InvestingPro data referenced by analysts indicates the stock is trading below its Fair Value estimate, a datapoint that Barclays said aligns with its constructive medium-term view.
Clear summary: Barclays cut its TPG price target to $69 while keeping an Overweight rating after TPG reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.71 and stronger-than-expected fundraising; Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy with an $80 target and both firms cited fundraising and fee growth as key positives.
Key points:
- Barclays reduced its price target for TPG to $69 from $78 but kept an Overweight rating, citing the company’s earnings and guidance.
- TPG reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.71, beating estimates and supported by transaction fees and FRPR, while core management fees slightly lagged expectations.
- Fundraising momentum was strong - TPG raised $16 billion in the quarter and exceeded fundraising expectations by roughly $3 billion, with management targeting more than $50 billion by 2026; Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy and $80 price target.
Risks and uncertainties:
- Core management fees missed expectations by around 1%, indicating potential variability in fee-related revenue that affects asset management and financials sectors.
- Market volatility could disrupt the timing of realizations despite management's view of limited disruption, creating uncertainty for earnings recognition in the asset management business.
- Share price has fallen 16.13% year-to-date, reflecting market sentiment and creating near-term downside risk for investors in TPG equity.