Barclays has reduced its price target for Robinhood Markets to $124.00 from $159.00 while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The stock is trading at $76.40 and has experienced notable volatility - down 24.31% year-to-date but up 60.48% over the past 12 months. According to InvestingPro analysis cited with the report, the stock is trading above its Fair Value.
The bank's revision follows Robinhood's softer-than-anticipated fourth-quarter performance. Barclays pointed to several revenue pressures: lower take rates in options and cryptocurrency trading that weighed on transaction revenues, and reduced securities lending that detracted from net interest income.
Despite these headwinds, the company remained profitable in the period. Robinhood reported a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.05 and delivered strong top-line momentum, with revenue growing 74.58% over the last twelve months.
Barclays identified net new accounts (NNAs) as the most consequential datapoint in the earnings release. NNAs decelerated in December, the bank said, then improved modestly in January. February, Barclays added, appeared to start on firmer footing, particularly with respect to new account growth.
The bank also observed that trading volumes increased month-over-month across all categories in February. However, commentary on market share was less definitive - Barclays noted that exchange volumes broadly rose during the same period, making it harder to isolate changes in Robinhood's share of trading activity.
On the cost side, Barclays highlighted that operating expenses came in better than expected for the quarter. The firm also noted that Robinhood's fiscal 2026 guidance was consistent with consensus estimates and that the company continues to pursue what Barclays described as an "ambitious growth roadmap" for 2026.
Robinhood's fourth-quarter 2025 reported results painted a mixed picture. The broker-dealer posted earnings per share of $0.66, topping the consensus estimate of $0.64 and Citizens' internal estimate of $0.65. Revenue, however, missed expectations: the company recorded $1.28 billion versus a projected $1.34 billion.
Analyst reactions to the earnings have varied. Piper Sandler cut its price target to $135 while maintaining an Overweight rating in response to the revenue shortfall. Compass Point trimmed its target to $127 after noting a 9% miss on EBITDA, which it attributed to lower securities lending income and reduced take rates in crypto and options trading. Needham lowered its price target to $100, pointing to especially strong results in prediction markets, where volumes reached record levels. By contrast, Citizens left its Market Outperform rating intact and stands by a $180 price target following the report.
Together, the recent analyst moves underscore divergent views among sell-side firms on Robinhood's near-term revenue drivers and longer-term growth prospects. While some firms trimmed targets in response to the revenue and EBITDA misses, others highlighted profitable operations and areas of growth such as prediction markets and improving account trends.
Key takeaways
- Barclays lowered its price target to $124 from $159 but kept an Overweight rating.
- Q4 results were pressured by lower take rates in options and crypto and reduced securities lending, though the company remains profitable with strong revenue growth.
- Net new account trends slowed in December, improved modestly in January, and appeared stronger in early February; trading volumes rose month-over-month but market share commentary was unclear.
Risks and uncertainties
- Revenue sensitivity to take rates in options and cryptocurrency trading - impacts brokerage and fintech revenue streams.
- Volatility in securities lending income - affects net interest income and profitability for broker-dealers.
- Unclear market-share trajectory amid broader exchange volume increases - complicates competitive assessment in the trading and exchange ecosystem.