Barclays on Monday increased its price target for Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) to $127.00 from $113.00 and left its rating at Overweight, citing the food company’s recent capital allocation choices and balance-sheet management. Data from InvestingPro used in parallel with Barclays’ note shows POST trading at $114.61, with analyst targets spanning $113 to $150 and a Fair Value model suggesting the shares are trading below intrinsic value.
The bank flagged Post’s intensive share repurchase program as central to its view, noting the company has repurchased roughly 20% of its outstanding common stock since the start of fiscal year 2025 while keeping its target leverage ratio in the mid-4x range. That activity is echoed in an InvestingPro tip noting, "Management has been aggressively buying back shares," and the stock has returned 13.15% over the past week.
Barclays characterized the repurchase campaign as a "creeping LBO," saying the company is incrementally reducing the public float through steady buybacks yet preserving financial flexibility. The firm pointed to proceeds from the sale of 8th Avenue’s pasta business as one source of that flexibility.
In its research commentary, Barclays also emphasized Post’s historical approach to growth through mergers and acquisitions, explaining the company often benchmarks potential acquisitions against the alternative of deploying capital into repurchases. The note referenced a comment from Post CEO Rob Vitale that M&A becomes "a much more interesting measure as multiples come down," while also noting that Post’s enterprise value to EBITDA sits near 8x - a multiple Barclays described as generally below levels some acquisition targets might expect as an exit valuation.
Recent operating results add nuance to the purchase-and-return storyline. Post reported Q1 fiscal 2026 results that fell short of consensus expectations on both the top and bottom lines, posting an EPS of $0.37 versus the $1.68 forecast and revenue of $537.3 million compared with the $2.18 billion expected. The company, however, disclosed robust adjusted EBITDA and raised its full-year guidance, a combination that underpinned continued broker interest.
Among equity research responses, Stifel reiterated a Buy recommendation with a $130 price target. Evercore ISI raised its target to $131 from $129 and maintained an Outperform rating, highlighting strength in Post’s foodservice division, which includes the Michael Foods egg business. Evercore noted the division is benefiting from higher-margin growth via increased sales of value-added eggs versus cracked eggs.
The collection of analyst views and Barclays’ updated target underline two parallel dynamics: an active buyback program that materially reduces share count and continuing strategic evaluation of acquisitions versus repurchases. Investors are therefore weighing reduced float and improved adjusted EBITDA against near-term revenue and EPS misses when assessing Post’s risk-reward profile.
Market context: The share repurchase program and any M&A activity affect the consumer packaged goods and foodservice sectors directly, while Post’s leverage and valuation multiples remain relevant to credit markets and acquisition counterparties.