Barclays has upgraded PPL Corp (NYSE:PPL) to Overweight from Equalweight and lifted its 12-month price objective to $40.00 from $37.00. The stock is trading around $37.26 and carries a market capitalization near $28 billion. Analysis from a professional analytics service noted that, on that trading level, the shares appear overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate.
The analyst move follows PPL’s fourth-quarter 2025 update, in which management extended the company’s 6-8% annual EPS growth target through at least 2029. Executives indicated that growth is trending toward the high end of that 6-8% range off the 2025 base, a tightening of expectations from the prior outlook that had called for the “top half” of the range through at least 2028.
Supporting the bullish growth narrative, published tips from a market research service show PPL trading at a low price-to-earnings ratio relative to near-term earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of 0.73. The company’s track record on shareholder distributions also remains intact: PPL has paid dividends for 55 consecutive years and currently yields approximately 2.93%.
PPL outlined several potential incremental upside streams not built into its baseline guidance. These include:
- competitive transmission contract wins;
- additional transmission and distribution opportunities in Pennsylvania and Kentucky;
- further generation investments in Kentucky; and
- potential contributions from the Blackstone joint venture.
On the data-center front, the company reported visibility into credit-protected demand in Pennsylvania of roughly 25 gigawatts of advanced-stage projects. PPL also described a diversified economic development pipeline in Kentucky that could support future growth initiatives.
Regulatory developments factored into the analysis. A pending Pennsylvania rate case represents about 20% of PPL’s rate base; hearings lasted one day rather than the four days that had been scheduled. In Kentucky, the rate case result increased allowed returns on equity, approved a pilot mechanism to recover generation costs and introduced protections to shield existing customers from disproportionate impacts of large data-center loads.
Barclays’ forecast for PPL’s earnings per share from 2026 through 2028 implies a compound annual growth rate of over 9%, versus a peer-group projection of roughly 7%. The bank’s 2028 EPS projection stands at $2.37 per share, which is about 4% above consensus estimates. In modeling longer-term upside from the Blackstone joint venture, Barclays conservatively assumes 1 gigawatt of data-center capacity attributed to that partnership in 2029, which it translates into $0.04 per share of EPS accretion.
Investors were directed to a comprehensive professional research report for deeper analysis; that report is part of a broader collection of proprietary research products offered by the same analytics service.
In operational and financial reporting, PPL released fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing EPS that met expectations at $0.41 for the quarter. Revenue for the period came in at $2.27 billion, below the $2.4 billion that had been anticipated. Following the quarter, the company announced a $1 billion equity units offering. The deal consists of the sale of 20 million equity units at $50.00 per unit; each unit includes a contract to purchase PPL common stock in the future as well as beneficial ownership interests in PPL Capital Funding, Inc.’s senior notes.
Market analysts across firms have adjusted their views in response to PPL’s updated outlook and operational developments. UBS raised its price target to $41 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing progress on the business plan and an improved EPS growth framework. BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating with a $41 target, pointing to the company’s solid earnings performance. Wolfe Research also raised its target to $42 and maintained an Outperform stance, noting the stronger EPS growth outlook.
These recent exchanges between management guidance, regulatory outcomes and analyst modeling signal a concentrated focus on strategic initiatives and potential incremental earnings drivers for PPL. That mix of factors - regulatory rulings, data-center opportunity visibility, and targeted investments in transmission, distribution and generation - underpins the recent ratings activity among research firms.
Summary - Barclays upgraded PPL to Overweight and raised its price target to $40 as PPL extended its 6-8% annual EPS growth target through at least 2029 and identified multiple sources of upside, including sizable data-center demand in Pennsylvania. While EPS met expectations in Q4 2025, revenue missed forecasts and management announced a $1 billion equity units offering.
Key points:
- Barclays upgraded PPL to Overweight and increased the price target to $40 from $37; the stock trades near $37.26 with a market cap of about $28 billion.
- PPL extended its 6-8% annual EPS growth target through at least 2029 and reported several potential upside areas, including transmission wins, incremental T&D opportunities, generation investments in Kentucky and the Blackstone joint venture tied to data-center demand.
- Regulatory outcomes in Pennsylvania and Kentucky - including a shorter-than-scheduled hearing and an increase in allowed returns on equity in Kentucky - factor into near-term visibility for the company.
Risks and uncertainties:
- Valuation concern - analysis suggests the shares may be overvalued relative to an estimated Fair Value, which could temper upside from analyst upgrades (impacts equity investors and utilities sector sentiment).
- Regulatory and rate-case exposure - outcomes from rate cases materially affect allowed returns and cost recovery mechanisms, introducing execution and timing risk for regulated utility earnings (impacts utilities and regulated infrastructure players).
- Near-term operational performance - the recent revenue miss versus expectations and the $1 billion equity units offering introduce execution and financing considerations that could affect near-term metrics (impacts corporate finance and investor dilution considerations).