Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Baird Stays Neutral on Allegion, Keeps $190 Price Target After Q4 Results

Analyst cites EPS and revenue misses, volume declines and cautious capital deployment amid slowing institutional spending

By Priya Menon ALLE
Baird Stays Neutral on Allegion, Keeps $190 Price Target After Q4 Results
ALLE

Baird reaffirmed a Neutral rating on Allegion (NYSE: ALLE) and maintained a $190 price target after the company released its fourth-quarter financials. The report showed slight misses on adjusted EPS and revenue, declines in segment volumes, and guidance for 2026 that aligns with Street expectations. Baird highlighted factors behind the stock's recent move and commended the company's more measured capital-allocation approach while noting risks from weakening institutional demand.

Key Points

  • Baird reaffirmed a Neutral rating on Allegion and maintained a $190 price target.
  • Allegion missed Q4 expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.94 versus $1.98 forecast and revenue of $1.03 billion versus $1.04 billion expected.
  • Volumes fell across both segments in the quarter; Americas volumes are projected to turn positive in 2026 driven by specification visibility.

Overview

Baird has reiterated a Neutral rating on Allegion (NYSE: ALLE) and kept its $190.00 price target in place following the company's fourth-quarter earnings release. The analyst note followed financial results that marginally missed consensus and initial guidance for 2026 that the firm said was in line with Street expectations.


Quarterly results and guidance

Allegion reported an adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.94, below the forecasted $1.98. Revenue for the period totaled $1.03 billion, short of the $1.04 billion that had been expected. The company also provided initial guidance for 2026 that Baird characterized as consistent with market estimates.


Volume trends and regional outlook

The company experienced declines in volumes across both of its operating segments during the quarter. Baird noted that volumes in the Americas are expected to return to positive territory in 2026, with that improvement tied to increased visibility from specification activity.


Market reaction and positioning

According to Baird, recent stock movements likely reflect a higher bar created by year-to-date outperformance, as well as some investor positioning around pricing ahead of the earnings announcement. The firm emphasized that these dynamics may have contributed to investor expectations entering the report.


Capital deployment and spending risks

Baird said it views Allegion's shift toward a more deliberate capital deployment strategy favorably. At the same time, the analyst remains mindful of decelerating institutional spending as a pressure point for the company. The note flagged the slower institutional demand as a factor to monitor in assessing near-term performance.


Analyst and investor implications

While analyst reactions to the quarter were not fully detailed in the firm note, the results and guidance typically inform subsequent evaluations and recommendations. Investors, the firm said, will be watching for any follow-up commentary or strategic responses from Allegion as it navigates these market dynamics.

Risks

  • Decelerating institutional spending could weigh on demand and growth - impacts industrials and commercial markets.
  • Volume declines across segments create uncertainty around near-term revenue and margin recovery - affects company cash flow and operational outlook.
  • Investor positioning and high prior outperformance may elevate the stock's sensitivity to future earnings surprises - influences market volatility for the security.

More from Analyst Ratings

DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026 BWS Financial Boosts A10 Networks Price Target Citing AI-Driven Network Traffic Feb 20, 2026