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U.S. intelligence agencies have launched an analysis of how Iran would likely respond should President Donald Trump announce a unilateral victory and pull back U.S. forces from the months-long conflict that has caused thousands of deaths and become politically costly for the White House, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the inquiry said.
The intelligence community is examining this scenario along with related questions at the request of senior administration officials, according to the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the work. The purpose of the review is to understand the potential fallout of a U.S. decision to reduce involvement in a war some advisers and officials fear could deepen Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year.
Scope of the intelligence review
It is not clear when the intelligence community will complete its assessment, but officials noted the community has previously modeled Iranian reactions to a U.S. declaration of victory. Agency analysis conducted after the opening bombing campaign in February concluded that if Trump declared the war over and U.S. forces drew down, Iran would probably interpret that outcome as a win, one source said.
By contrast, if the president proclaimed victory but kept a substantial troop presence in the region, Iran would likely treat that posture as a negotiating instrument rather than a final settlement, the source added. The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
White House positioning
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the United States is still engaging with Iranian representatives in negotiations and would "not be rushed into making a bad deal." She emphasized that the president will "only enter into an agreement that puts U.S. national security first, and he has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon."
Political pressures at home
Public polling underscores the political risks of the conflict. Opinion surveys show the campaign is broadly unpopular: a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week found just 26% of respondents said the military campaign has been worth the costs, and only 25% said it has made the United States safer. Three people familiar with recent White House discussions said Trump is acutely aware of the political price he and his party are paying.
Officials characterize the domestic pressure to end the war as "enormous," a phrase used by a White House official describing the intensity of demands on the president to bring U.S. involvement to a close.
Economic and market implications
The conflict has had immediate consequences for global energy markets and U.S. consumers. Twenty days after Trump declared a ceasefire, diplomatic efforts have not fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran closed after attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow waterway. That chokepoint carries about 20% of the world's crude oil, a disruption that has pushed up energy costs globally and raised prices at U.S. gasoline pumps. Iran's demonstrated ability to interrupt commerce in the strait gives it tangible leverage over the United States and its regional partners.
Officials said that a U.S. decision to scale back military operations in the region, combined with a mutual lifting of the blockade by Tehran, would ultimately reduce gasoline prices, but they also noted the two sides remain far from any agreement that would produce those results.
Diplomatic contacts and cancellations
Diplomacy has faced setbacks. Last weekend, President Trump called off a planned trip by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet Iranian officials in Pakistan, telling reporters the trip would take "too much time" and that if Iran wanted to talk "all they had to do was call."
Military options and battlefield dynamics
Officials make clear that military options remain on the table. A separate person familiar with administration dynamics said renewed airstrikes targeting Iran's military and political leadership are among the options being considered. Yet one official and another person familiar with internal discussions said that the most ambitious measures, such as a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland, now appear less likely than they did a few weeks ago.
One source reported that Iran has used the ongoing ceasefire to recover weapons systems and materiel that U.S. and Israeli bombing had buried during the early phases of the conflict. Tehran has reportedly excavated launchers, munitions, drones and other equipment during the ceasefire that began on April 8. That activity, according to the source, means the tactical costs of resuming a full-scale war may be higher now than they were in the initial days of the ceasefire.
Where things stand
No policy decision has been made, and officials emphasize that a rapid de-escalation is not guaranteed - Trump could just as readily escalate military activity again. A quick drawdown could relieve political pressure on the president, the sources said, but it also risks leaving an emboldened Iran with the potential to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and to pose renewed threats to U.S. allies in the region. The intelligence review underway aims to weigh those trade-offs for policymakers as they consider possible near-term actions.