Options market activity indicates Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TTWO) could see a 9.4% price move when it reports earnings next week, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. The company is scheduled to publish its quarterly results on May 21 after the market close.
The Bloomberg options-derived figure represents the market's expectation of the absolute magnitude of the share-price reaction on the earnings announcement. Looking back across the prior eight reporting periods, the actual stock response has at times outpaced that options-implied magnitude and at times fallen short.
Specifically, three of the past eight Take-Two earnings releases produced actual price moves larger than the options market implied. The most recent release, on February 3, carried an implied move of 5.6%, but the stock declined by 18.3% following the announcement. In November 2025, options suggested an 8.5% move yet shares fell 7.8% after the report. For February 2025 results, the implied move was 3.3% while the stock rose 9.8% on the news.
Other recent comparisons between implied and realized price changes include:
- August 2025: implied move 6.0% versus an actual decline of 2.9%.
- May 2025: implied move 5.9% with an actual price change of 0.2%.
- November 2024: implied move 6.5% and an actual increase of 10.4%.
- August 2024: implied move 7.3% compared with a 3.8% decline.
- May 2024: implied move 7.1% and an actual gain of 1.3%.
These historical episodes illustrate that option-implied volatility provides a market estimate of potential movement but does not reliably predict direction or exact magnitude. In some cases the stock moved well beyond the implied range, while in others it reacted modestly or in the opposite direction.
Contextual note - The options-implied percentage reflects expected absolute movement around the earnings release; the figure does not indicate whether the change will be positive or negative.