Economy April 22, 2026 06:25 AM

Mayan Train Falls Short of Promises as Southern Mexico Sees Little Local Benefit

A flagship 1,500-km rail project struggles with weak demand while nearby communities remain without basic services and stable jobs

By Nina Shah
Mayan Train Falls Short of Promises as Southern Mexico Sees Little Local Benefit

Mexico’s Mayan Train, promoted as a catalyst for development across the Yucatan Peninsula, has underperformed on multiple fronts two years after inauguration. Ridership and hotel occupancy are far below projections, revenue covers a small share of operating costs, and communities along the route report that promised improvements in services and jobs have not materialized.

Key Points

  • The Mayan Train, a 1,500-km (1,000-mile) rail project, has underperformed: ridership is far below original projections and revenue covered less than 13% of operating costs last year.
  • Local communities report little direct benefit: villages near the route lack reliable electricity and water despite infrastructure installed for the train; poverty and informal employment remain widespread in the region.
  • Economic effects were temporary: federal spending tied to construction produced a 13.2% spike in Quintana Roo’s growth in 2023, followed by a 9.7% contraction in the first nine months of 2025; tourism and hospitality along the route show weak occupancy.

Overview

Deep within the Maya jungle, bright white lights illuminate a maintenance depot built to service Mexico’s flagship Mayan Train. Outside the depot fence, however, a nearby village remains largely in the dark. The 1,500-km (1,000-mile) rail initiative was marketed as a vehicle for development across the country’s impoverished south through upgraded infrastructure and expanded tourism. Two years on from its inauguration, the project is encountering difficulties: ticket revenues meet only a fraction of running costs, hotels along the route are mostly empty and residents near the line say they have seen little of the gains once promised by the government.


Vida y Esperanza: light and shadow

In Vida y Esperanza - which translates to "Life and Hope" - residents had expected the train to bring tangible change. Power lines installed to serve the rail run almost directly above some houses, yet many families still rely on rented solar panels and small generators for electricity. Mary Sandra Peraza, 30, a mother of four, said: "It’s not like we’re asking for much."

Before dawn, Peraza prepares breakfast on a propane hot plate in an outdoor kitchen. The village primary school stands a short distance from the depot but lacks grid electricity for fans, computers or stable lighting. Its teacher, Lidia Patricia Chan Us - called "Maestra Pati" by her 35 students - has spent years trying to secure a connection. Authorities have told her that electricity cannot be installed until the land beneath the school has formal titles, a type of red tape common for communal rural plots.

"At the beginning, when the project came along, we were happy about it," Chan Us said. Some residents sold food to construction workers while the project was being built, but she said that income evaporated once construction finished. A Reuters review of census data and dozens of interviews with residents in towns along the railway found that poverty remains entrenched and good-paying jobs are scarce.


Infrastructure contradictions

In Quintana Roo, where Vida y Esperanza is located, official data show that the share of homes recorded as having electricity actually fell slightly during the period the railway was being constructed, despite the construction of new substations to power the line. Federal agencies contacted for comment - the public education ministry and the defense ministry, which oversees the train through a state company - did not respond to requests.


Economic figures and labour dynamics

The Mayan Train was championed by former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as a loop route linking cities and archaeological sites across the Yucatan Peninsula, designed to bring opportunity to Indigenous Maya communities and extend tourism beyond coastal resorts. Government data indicate that while federal spending tied to the project produced a historic 13.2% spike in Quintana Roo's economic growth in 2023, the boost proved temporary. The state then plunged into a 9.7% contraction in the first nine months of 2025, according to statistics agency INEGI.

Quintana Roo did see a reduction in unemployment and an expansion of formal hiring, but informal work remains widespread: about 60% of workers in the Yucatan are still in informal jobs without legal or social security protections. Historically marginalized Maya populations in Mexico’s southeast continue to face high poverty rates and limited access to services, and community activists say that, rather than fostering prosperity, the project has fragmented forests, eroded communal land and strained local traditions.


Legal resistance and cultural impact

Legal challenges brought by environmental groups and Indigenous communities failed as the government moved forward with the project using national security exemptions. For many Maya, the land over which the railway runs is sacred and central to identity and ancestral links. "I feel outraged by the way they behaved, because they didn’t take us into account," said Eliseo Ek, 45, an Indigenous activist from Nicolas Bravo in Quintana Roo.


Water promises unmet in Xpujil

In Xpujil, near the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in Campeche state, beekeeper and farmer Nicolas Moreno Jimenez turns on a tap inside his concrete home and finds no water. Lopez Obrador had pledged that the town’s long-standing water shortages would be addressed when he inaugurated the Adolfo Lopez Mateos-Xpujil aqueduct in January 2024. "How do we build a major project like the Mayan Train and not bring in water?" Lopez Obrador said at the event.

But Moreno said the taps remain dry. "They were empty words," he said. Each week he transports water by car from another community so his son, a university student, can bathe, wash dishes and flush the toilet. Official data show that around 70% of Campeche’s population have access to running water.


Low ridership and hotel vacancies

The train itself has struggled to draw the tourist traffic that was expected. Routes originally meant to provide convenient links between Cancun and other leading destinations were shifted inland due to legal challenges, environmental rerouting and land constraints. The changes left many stations far from city centers and airports, reducing the service’s practicality for visitors.

On a weekday afternoon trip between Bacalar and Chetumal, fewer than 40 of 230 seats were occupied. The original projection that the train would carry 3 million passengers annually has been cut to 1.2 million. The project’s estimated cost has also swelled, growing from $7 billion to more than $25 billion. Revenue last year covered less than 13% of operating costs.

The rail project spawned six Tren Maya hotels. One property in the Calakmul reserve, set amid jungle and featuring two pools and modern amenities, was only about 20% full on a November night, according to a reception worker. Government data reviewed by Reuters show those hotels averaged monthly occupancy rates between 5% and 24% for most of the prior year. The defense ministry agency that runs the hotels did not reply to a request for comment.


Government response and political framing

Current President Claudia Sheinbaum has disputed claims that the train is failing and has characterized it as a success. She has used daily press conferences to highlight tourist packages tied to the railway and has suggested the line could be used to move freight. Officials from the defense ministry and other agencies did not respond to repeated requests for comment in relation to occupancy and community services.


Displacement and local grievances

The hotel developments are an especially bitter outcome for Moreno. His family was displaced when the government created the Calakmul reserve, a UNESCO World Heritage site intended to protect biodiversity and ancient ruins. "We had been there since 1980," Moreno said. "They removed us in 1993. And now they build hotels where we could not even stay."

He added: "In the press conferences they say the poor come first. But they take away our rights." The sense of grievance ties together the economic and cultural complaints voiced by residents along the railway's path.


Conclusion

Two years after its inauguration, Mexico’s Mayan Train has yet to deliver the broad-based benefits promised for communities along its route. While the construction phase generated a temporary economic spike in some areas, subsequent contraction, limited ridership, low hotel occupancy and persistent gaps in basic services such as electricity and water point to a disconnect between the project’s ambitions and outcomes. Residents and activists continue to press for the tangible improvements that were used to justify the multi-billion-dollar undertaking.

Risks

  • Fiscal and operational sustainability - Low ticket sales and hotel occupancy create revenue shortfalls that could require ongoing government subsidies or additional spending, affecting public finances and the defense ministry agency that operates the train and hotels.
  • Social and political friction - Displacement, erosion of communal lands and unfulfilled promises on services such as electricity and water risk fueling local grievances and activism, with potential implications for regional stability and project operations.
  • Underutilized infrastructure - Stations located far from city centers and airports, along with rerouted segments, have reduced visitor convenience, limiting tourism growth and dampening returns for the hospitality and transport sectors.

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