Key finding - A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Monday shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro effectively tied in a simulated second-round ballot for this year’s presidential election. In that head-to-head scenario, Lula is recorded at 46% of the vote and Flavio Bolsonaro at 45%.
Comparison with previous survey - The poll follows a March survey in which the two were recorded tied at 46% each in a simulated runoff.
First-round scenarios - In three separate simulated first-round matchups included in the poll, Lula is shown with 41% support. Flavio Bolsonaro’s share in those first-round simulations ranges from 36% to 38%, depending on which other contenders are present in the lineup.
Electoral mechanics - The survey reiterates Brazil’s runoff rule: if no candidate surpasses 50% of valid votes, the two leading candidates proceed to a second-round vote. The country has held runoffs in every presidential election since 2002.
Context noted in the poll - The release notes that markets have tracked polling closely since former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is imprisoned, publicly endorsed his son Flavio Bolsonaro in December. The poll also records ages and recent history without interpretation: Flavio Bolsonaro is 44 years old; Lula, 80, who defeated the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as president.
Survey sample and precision - Nexus interviewed 2,028 people between April 24 and April 26. The poll’s stated margin of error is 2 percentage points in either direction.
What this means - The poll presents a closely contested presidential contest with small differences between the two leading figures in both first- and second-round simulations. The measured sample size and the declared margin of error underscore that the results fall within a narrow statistical band.