Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to keep the central bank's short-term policy rate unchanged at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for April 29-30. Most officials continue to say a policy rate reduction remains a possibility, but they underline that the likelihood and timing of any cut are conditional on developments related to the Iran conflict and higher oil prices.
To help readers follow the range of views inside the central bank, Reuters has grouped recent public remarks from Fed officials under the shorthand labels "dove" and "hawk." In this framework, a dove is defined as an official who is relatively more concerned about risks to the labor market and therefore more inclined toward earlier rate cuts, while a hawk is defined as an official who places greater weight on inflation risks and is therefore more cautious about cutting rates.
Why the committee is on hold for now
Officials cited geopolitical developments and energy market pressures as the primary uncertainties that could delay or reshape plans for policy easing. Several policymakers said that a reduction in the policy rate remains possible later in the year, but that the path to cuts depends in part on how long the Iran conflict and elevated oil prices persist. The Fed's near-term posture is one of watching incoming data and assessing the durability of inflation and labor market conditions before moving on policy.
How Reuters categorized comments
Reuters sorted officials' public comments and published remarks into categories based on their apparent monetary policy leanings. The designations are based on what officials said in public and in published speeches and interviews. Reuters notes that these categorizations have shifted over time as officials have offered fresh comments and circumstances have evolved.
A graphic accompanying the original reporting presents officials' remarks grouped under "dove," "centrist" and "hawk" headings. The text below reflects the Reuters tabulation of policymakers in each category heading into Fed meetings over a sequence of dates.
Institutional context and recent forecasts
At present, the Fed's policy rate target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. In March, the median projection among Fed policymakers was for one quarter-percentage-point cut by the end of 2026. That projection is subject to change based on incoming data and evolving geopolitical and energy market conditions.
The structure of the Fed's policymaking process is central to understanding how these views translate into decisions. The Fed's seven governors, including the central bank chief and vice chairs, are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. Each governor votes at every FOMC meeting, which the committee holds eight times a year. In addition to the governors, 12 regional Federal Reserve bank presidents participate in the discussions and debates at FOMC meetings; however, only five regional presidents cast votes at any meeting, including the president of the New York Fed and four others chosen on a rotating basis for one-year voting terms.
Regional bank presidents are selected by the directors of their own regional banks, subject to approval by the Fed's board. Reuters notes that over time it has adjusted its characterizations of policymakers as dovish, centrist or hawkish in response to fresh public comments and shifting circumstances.
Nomination backgrounds referenced in public reporting
The reporting also recounts the nomination history of several Fed governors. It notes that Miran, Waller and Bowman are Trump nominees. It states that Barr, Jefferson and Cook were nominated by former President Joe Biden and that titles in some public discussion indicated that Trump was attempting to remove them. The account further records that Jerome Powell was initially nominated to the Fed's Board of Governors by President Barack Obama, was elevated to the chair by President Trump during his first term, and was later renominated to the chair position by President Biden. Finally, it notes that Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell when Powell's chair term ends on May 15.
Recent Reuters tally of policymaker leanings
Below is the Reuters count of policymakers categorized as doves, dovish centrists, centrists, hawkish centrists and hawks heading into successive Fed meetings as reported in the original compilation. The table reproduces the Reuters tabulation and the dates associated with each snapshot.
| Date | Dove | Dovish Centrist | Centrist | Hawkish Centrist | Hawk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| March '26 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Jan. '26 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Dec. '25 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| Oct. '25 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| Sept. '25 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| July '25 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Jan.-June '25 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Dec. '24 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| Nov. '24 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 0 |
| Sept. '24 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| May-July '24 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| March '24 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 1 |
| Jan. '24 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| Dec. '23 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| Oct/Nov '23 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Sept. '23 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| June '23 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| March '23 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
| Dec. '22 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
What officials have said publicly
Public remarks from Fed officials have reflected a mix of perspectives. Some officials emphasize the risks to the labor market and express readiness to consider cuts when the outlook is sufficiently steady. Others stress the risk that higher energy costs - including those related to developments in Iran - could push inflation back up and thereby delay rate reductions. Across the range of comments, two consistent themes appear: policymakers are closely watching incoming data, and the Russia-Ukraine or Iran-related geopolitical situation and its effect on oil prices are explicit determinants cited for the timing of future easing.
The reporting notes that a range of officials across the Fed's leadership have weighed in, and that Reuters has revised its labels for policymakers as those comments have accumulated. Because public comments and economic conditions continue to evolve, the distribution of dovish and hawkish leanings inside the Fed remains subject to change.
Practical implications
For market participants and observers, the central takeaway is that the Fed is currently positioned to hold rates at the upcoming April meeting but that the committee has not closed the door on easing later in 2026. The timing of any cut hinges on both domestic economic data and the persistence of geopolitical and energy-related inflationary pressures.
The article accompanying Reuters' categorization includes a graphic and a fuller set of individual remarks underpinning the tally. Readers seeking the underlying comments and the most recent shifts in officials' tone can consult that material for more detailed context.
Notes
- The current policy rate target range is 3.50%-3.75%.
- The median of Fed policymaker projections in March was for one quarter-percentage-point cut by the end of 2026.
- The Fed's seven governors are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate; regional Fed presidents participate in discussions but only five regional presidents vote at each meeting on a rotating basis.