State of the Market

Daily market briefings published at Open, Midday, and Close. Structured analysis of price action, macro context, sector leadership, and cross-asset signals.

These reports document what the market is doing right now, not predictions. They provide context, structure, and continuity throughout the trading day.

● Market Pulse: Risk-On

Updated 2:00 PM ET

Broad equity gains led by tech and small caps, long bonds weakening and dollar softening; gold is a notable outlier.

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Market Reports

Three reports per trading day: Open, Midday, and Close

All Dates Today Yesterday

Midday Update February 20, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Tech shoulders the tape at midday as gold rips, oil cools, and yields firm

A hawkish tint in the Fed minutes, a noisy tariff backdrop, and renewed AI spend keep leadership narrow. Energy slips despite geopolitical heat while haven bids crowd into metals.

Megacap tech leads midday as QQQ outperforms and SPY grinds higher, while IWM lags but stays green.
Treasury yields firm across the curve, pressuring TLT and IEF even as inflation expectations remain anchored in the mid‑2% range.
Gold and silver surge with GLD and SLV sharply higher, while USO slips as crude gives back part of its geopolitical risk premium.

Market Open February 20, 2026 • 9:30 AM

Risk gets repriced into the bell: stocks softer, oil and gold firm, bonds catch a bid

Tech wobbles again, energy steadies the tape, and Treasurys recover after a two-day yield climb. The Fed’s inflation pulse and geopolitical pressure keep traders cautious.

Stocks point lower into the open while energy, utilities and industrials show relative strength.
Treasurys catch a bid after a two-day rise in yields, with the 10-year near 4.09% and the 30-year around 4.71%.
Gold and silver advance despite a firm dollar backdrop, signaling safety demand.

Market Close February 19, 2026 • 4:02 PM

Closing Tape: Oil bid, dollar firm, and the S&P slips anyway

Energy and defense caught the geopolitical airflow, while big tech still looked heavy under a 10-year yield parked near 4%.

Major indexes slipped at the close, with SPY, QQQ, and DIA lower while IWM finished higher.
Energy leadership was decisive, with XLE up and USO surging alongside U.S.-Iran tension headlines.
Utilities outperformed, a quiet tell of a market still seeking ballast.

Midday Update February 19, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Energy climbs as tech slips; stocks edge lower while oil heats the tape

Fed minutes keep a hawkish shadow over rates, jobless claims firm up the labor picture, and traders pivot toward oil, industrials, and utilities as geopolitical risk rises.

Energy leads as oil surges on rising U.S.–Iran tensions; tech and consumer discretionary lag.
Indexes drift lower at midday while sector rotation intensifies toward industrials and utilities.
Fed minutes keep a hawkish option on the table if inflation stalls, curbing rate-cut enthusiasm.

Market Open February 19, 2026 • 9:27 AM

Oil and metals muscle higher into the bell as tech steadies and yields firm

A commodity-led open meets a 4% 10-year and hawkish Fed minutes. Energy and banks lean higher, defensives sag, and small caps trail while gold and silver rip.

Energy and metals lead premarket as oil spikes on U.S.–Iran tension headlines
SPY and QQQ point higher, while DIA and IWM lag slightly into the open
Treasurys slip, with the 10-year near 4.05% after jobless claims firm and Fed minutes keep a hawkish option alive

Market Close February 18, 2026 • 4:02 PM

A Risk-On Close, With a Nervous Edge, Oil and Metals Jump, Tech Reclaims the Mic

Stocks finished higher, led by big tech and energy, while long-duration Treasurys sagged. The day’s tell was the mix, inflation-hike chatter in Fed minutes, a bid in oil on Iran tensions, and a surge in gold and silver that didn’t look like a quiet hedge.

Stocks closed higher across major index ETFs, with SPY at 686.26 and QQQ at 605.70.
Energy and crude were the day’s loudest signal, with XLE up to 54.78 and USO jumping to 79.41.
Long-duration Treasurys softened, TLT ended at 89.515, keeping the rate-pressure narrative alive.

Midday Update February 18, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday risk-on: Tech steadies, oil and gold surge, utilities skid as yields firm

Energy pops on U.S.–Iran tension, mega-cap tech helps the tape, and bonds edge lower while the 10-year hovers near 4%. Dispersion stays the rule, not the exception.

Tech steadies the tape while energy leads on a crude spike tied to U.S.–Iran tensions
Utilities and long bonds slip as yields firm modestly, with the 10-year hovering near 4%
Gold and silver rip higher, reversing earlier-week softness as haven demand returns

Market Open February 18, 2026 • 9:30 AM

Oil pops on Iran risk, banks bid, metals wobble as stocks edge up into the bell

Nvidia-Meta deal steadies AI complex, 10-year yield hovers near 4%, and premarket shows a rotation day forming rather than a melt-up

Energy bid returns as oil jumps on U.S.-Iran tensions, lifting USO and supporting XLE
Banks are firm into the open with XLF, JPM, BAC, and GS trading above prior closes
Nvidia steadies tech after a multiyear Meta chip deal, while software remains tentative

Market Close February 17, 2026 • 4:02 PM

A Risk-On Close With a Risk-Off Undertow: Stocks Held Up, Hard Assets Didn’t

The broad market finished steady-to-firmer, but the day’s loudest message came from commodities, with gold and silver hit hard. Yields stayed elevated, tech stayed twitchy, and the tape kept rotating rather than committing.

Broad market held up into the close, with SPY and DIA finishing higher, while QQQ slipped.
Financials led, staples lagged, and the tape stayed rotational rather than broadly risk-on.
Gold and silver sold off sharply, with GLD and SLV both down materially versus the prior close.

Midday Update February 17, 2026 • 12:05 PM

Midday: Rotation leans into banks and industrials as metals slide, tech splits; bonds quietly supportive

Financials and industrials firm up the Dow while Nasdaq wobbles. Precious metals sink hard despite easier long yields. Oil and broad commodities ease; crypto cools.

Dow and financials lead while Nasdaq leans lower; S&P 500 is slightly positive midday
Long bonds are bid and the yield backdrop is calmer after last week’s easing in the long end
Precious metals slump hard even as rates steady; oil and broad commodities are softer

Market Open February 17, 2026 • 9:29 AM

Rotation flexes into the open as bonds bid and metals crack

Mega-cap tech stays on the back foot, small caps and defensives lean green, long-end yields ease, and gold/silver cool after a torrid run

Rotation deepens: Tech sags while small caps, industrials, and defensives bid before the open
Long-end yields ease, with the 10-year near 4.09% and 30-year around 4.72%, supporting a bond bid
Gold and silver retreat after recent strength, with GLD and SLV lower in early prints

Midday Update February 16, 2026 • 12:03 PM

Midday market: Bond bid steadies the tone as megacaps sag, defensives and gold take the lead

Yields ease across the curve, AI jitters linger over Big Tech, and utilities, healthcare, and precious metals do the quiet lifting

Yields ease across the curve, with the 10-year near 4.09% and the 30-year at 4.72%, supporting a bid in duration proxies
Defensive sectors lead, as utilities and healthcare outperform while megacap tech names decline midday
Gold and silver rally in step with lower rates, while oil is marginally softer and broad commodities are slightly higher

Midday Update February 15, 2026 • 12:04 PM

Midday calm: Long yields ease, gold shines, and megacaps wobble as AI shockwaves linger

Bonds extend a relief bid while small-caps hold Friday’s rebound; sector board tilts defensive even as energy stays resilient. Megacap tech remains heavy into a newsy week for chips and retail.

Long-end Treasury yields ease toward 4.09% on the 10-year and 4.72% on the 30-year, extending Thursday’s duration bid.
Gold advances as GLD closes Friday well above the prior session; silver also higher, while oil ticks slightly lower.
Index ETFs finished Friday modestly higher with IWM outperforming, but midday single-name tape stays mixed.

Midday Update February 14, 2026 • 12:04 PM

Midday Reset: Bonds Hold the Line, Gold Pops, and Equities Try to Shake Off AI Jitters

Yields slip, metals firm, and a subtle rotation keeps cyclicals and defensives on the field while megacap tech digests a bruising week.

Duration bid holds as the 10-year yield slips to roughly 4.09% and the 30-year to about 4.72%.
Broad equities finish the last session slightly higher, with small caps outpacing megacap tech.
Gold and silver jump, pairing with a long-bond rally to signal a protective overlay.

Market Close February 13, 2026 • 4:02 PM

A Calm Close With Nervous Undertones, Stocks Grind Higher While the Safety Trade Refuses to Leave

Big indexes finished green, but the real story was rotation, gold’s surge, and a market still treating AI as both growth engine and wrecking ball.

Indexes finished higher, but the session still carried a hedged tone, with gold and utilities surging alongside equities.
Small caps led, with IWM up sharply versus its prior close, hinting at an attempted breadth repair.
Mega-cap tech stayed under scrutiny, with AAPL and NVDA down on the day even as QQQ finished slightly higher.

Midday Update February 13, 2026 • 12:06 PM

Midday reset: Small caps and defensives take the wheel as bonds and bullion surge

After Thursday’s AI scare rattled tech, Friday’s tape leans risk-on but cautious—utilities, health care and industrials lead while gold spikes, long bonds catch a bid, and oil eases.

Small caps drive midday leadership as IWM outperforms broader indices
Defensive sectors utilities and health care pace gains while tech steadies
Long bonds rally and yields ease, supporting duration-sensitive pockets

Market Open February 13, 2026 • 9:30 AM

Risk-off tone into the bell: Tech heavy, bonds bid, defensives firm after cooler CPI

Mega-cap tech remains under pressure premarket while Treasurys extend their rebound. Utilities and staples catch a bid as oil, gold and broad commodities slip. Memory pricing, AI capex angst and bond relief define the setup.

Premarket tone is risk-off with SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM all indicated below Thursday’s closes
Defensives are firmer: XLU and XLP trade higher premarket while XLK, XLF, XLI and XLE are lower
Long Treasurys extend Thursday’s rally, with TLT and IEF up in early quotes

Market Close February 12, 2026 • 4:02 PM

Close: Hardware shockwaves hit Big Tech, while defensives quietly take the wheel

A steep drop in the major index ETFs was led by tech and financials, even as utilities and staples held up. Bonds caught a bid. Gold did not.

Index ETFs sold off into the close, with QQQ leading the downside and SPY, DIA, and IWM also lower versus prior closes.
Tech and financials weakened, while utilities and staples finished higher, signaling a defensive tilt.
Treasury ETFs rallied, with TLT and IEF higher, consistent with flight-to-quality behavior.

Midday Update February 12, 2026 • 12:04 PM

Defensives take the wheel at midday as tech and banks retreat, Treasurys firm, and metals unravel

The tape tilts risk-off beneath the surface: mega-cap tech and financials are on their back foot, bond ETFs catch a bid, energy fades, and crypto stumbles despite resilient labor readings and steady inflation expectations.

Risk-off rotation: defensives up, tech and banks down while the broad market slips.
Treasurys firmer midday as investors step back from growth-and-capex exposure.
Gold and silver tumble, oil eases, natural gas edges higher.

Market Close February 11, 2026 • 4:02 PM

Jobs Surprise, Rates Reality, and a Market That Couldn’t Pick a Lane

A strong January jobs print pushed yields higher and kept the tape jumpy, but the close told a familiar story: defensive bid, tech crosscurrents, and a market still negotiating the price of growth.

Indexes closed mixed, with SPY flat, QQQ higher, and IWM lower, a classic fragmented tape.
A stronger January jobs report pushed yields higher in the narrative, keeping rate sensitivity front and center.
Sector leadership leaned defensive and real-asset heavy: XLE up strongly, XLP and XLU higher, XLF down.

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