Overview
The close had that familiar, slightly contradictory feel, stocks levitating while the macro tape kept tapping the brakes. The broad market finished higher, with SPY closing at 686.26 versus 682.85 the prior close, and QQQ at 605.70 versus 601.30. Even the old-economy benchmarks joined in, DIA ended at 496.98 versus 495.85, and IWM at 264.00 versus 263.04.
But the day’s leadership carried a message, too. Energy ripped higher, XLE finished 54.78 versus 53.75, tracking a sharp move in crude as U.S.-Iran tensions made headlines. Meanwhile, long-duration bonds softened, TLT ended at 89.515 versus 89.87, with the latest Treasury yield readings still hovering around the psychological 4% neighborhood in the 10-year. That mix, stocks up, oil up, long bonds down, is not a “nothing to see here” combination. It reads like traders are willing to own risk, but they are buying it with one eye on inflation pressure and geopolitics.
Macro backdrop
The rates complex is still doing the quiet work of tightening the room. The latest available Treasury yields show the 10-year at 4.04% (Feb. 13), down from 4.09% (Feb. 12) and 4.18% (Feb. 11). The long end remained elevated, the 30-year was 4.69% (Feb. 13). The front end, meanwhile, is still pinned in “policy is restrictive” territory, the 2-year at 3.40% (Feb. 13).
Inflation data itself was not fresh today beyond the recent CPI and core CPI index levels, CPI at 326.588 (Jan. 2026) and core CPI at 332.793. What mattered for the tape was the tone around inflation risk. Fed minutes coverage highlighted that officials discussed a possible rate hike if inflation does not cool. That is the kind of line that changes posture even when the market shrugs at it in real time. It introduces asymmetry, the idea that the next surprise could be hawkish, not dovish.
Inflation expectations, at least by the modeled series, sit in a relatively contained band. The 1-year model expectation was 2.5879 (Feb. 2026), with 5-year at 2.3668 and 10-year at 2.3616. The market can live with those numbers. The market struggles when commodities start moving like they did today, because expectations are not just a survey or a model, they are a narrative. And today’s narrative had gasoline fumes and precious-metal glare.
Equities
Broad indexes ended higher, but the closing tone was about durability, not euphoria. SPY gained about 0.50% versus the prior close (686.26 vs. 682.85). QQQ added roughly 0.73% (605.70 vs. 601.30). DIA rose about 0.23% (496.98 vs. 495.85). IWM was up about 0.36% (264.00 vs. 263.04).
Under the surface, big tech regained the steering wheel, but with a very 2026 kind of anxiety running alongside it. The “AI is the future” storyline is still pushing capital spending and corporate dealmaking, but it’s also forcing a harsher conversation about returns on those dollars and who wins the stack. That tension showed up in the day’s stock-specific moves.
AAPL closed at 264.24, up from 263.88, after trading between 262.45 and 266.82 on volume of 31,992,790. The news flow around Apple centered on product launch chatter and a technical test for tech momentum. It’s notable when Apple is acting stable-to-firm while the market debates whether software and parts of tech are in a deeper re-rating.
MSFT ended at 399.50 from 396.86, after printing a 396.32 to 402.56 range on volume of 22,230,885. Microsoft’s day fit the larger “capex now, profits later” cloud-AI narrative referenced in coverage about AI spending across the hyperscalers. Investors have heard this story before, the difference is the bill is now large enough that Wall Street is starting to ask for receipts.
NVDA finished at 187.86 versus 184.97, with heavy volume at 156,773,046 and an intraday range of 186.76 to 190.37. The stock’s move lined up with the Meta partnership headlines, a multiyear AI chip supply agreement that reinforced revenue visibility. Nvidia’s price action looked like the market’s default setting, buy the toll booth, especially when visibility improves.
GOOGL closed at 303.26 from 302.02, with volume of 27,553,290. CNBC also highlighted Alphabet’s new AI music model as a potential lure for content creators, another reminder that AI’s competitive frontier is not just chips and data centers, it is also consumer-facing tools where switching costs can be softer than investors assume.
META ended at 643.26 from 639.29 after trading as low as 628.145 and as high as 644.54 on volume of 14,380,759. In a tape obsessed with AI capex discipline, Meta is doing the opposite of pulling back, it is leaning in, and the market rewarded the clearer linkage between spend and infrastructure supply.
Sectors
Sector performance told a crisp story of rotation and cross-currents rather than a single clean theme.
Energy was the standout. XLE closed at 54.78 versus 53.75, a roughly 1.92% jump, mirroring a day when crude headlines dominated. That’s where geopolitical risk gets priced fastest, and it bled into the broader commodity complex too.
Technology participated. XLK ended at 140.92 versus 139.48, about 1.03% higher. The tech bid did not look like a blind chase. It looked selective, centered on the large platforms and AI infrastructure winners, with a parallel stream of skepticism around software and “AI disruption” losers in the headline flow.
Financials quietly firmed. XLF finished at 52.58 from 52.20, up about 0.73%. Bank bellwethers echoed that. JPM closed at 308.68 versus 307.13, and BAC at 53.36 versus 52.74. One popular thread in coverage today was traders reaching for leveraged financial exposure tied to shifting expectations about the Fed. The sector’s steadier move suggests the market is not fully buying the “easy money soon” idea, but it is positioning for a curve story that can improve bank math without requiring immediate cuts.
Defensives were mixed. XLV edged up to 157.65 from 157.37, while staples lagged, XLP slipped to 88.04 from 88.20. Utilities were the notable weak spot, XLU dropped to 45.5901 from 46.38, down about 1.70%. That matters because utilities often act like bond proxies. When utilities sag while long bonds also soften, it reads less like “flight to safety” and more like “rates are still a headwind.”
Industrials were flat-to-soft. XLI ended at 175.02 versus 175.08. But within industrials, defense stood out. NOC surged to 724.84 from 701.12, a sharp move on the day. LMT was essentially flat, 649.80 from 649.58, and RTX up modestly to 204.775 from 203.50. With Middle East risk back in the day’s headlines, defense can trade like a geopolitical barometer, even when the broader industrial ETF looks sleepy.
Consumer discretionary firmed, XLY ended at 117.01 from 116.04, up about 0.84%. Megacap discretionary was fine, AMZN gained to 204.67 from 201.15, and TSLA inched to 411.18 from 410.63. But the “consumer” is still a two-speed story in the news cycle, with commentary pointing to a K-shaped dynamic and price increases across subscription platforms.
Bonds
The bond market did not confirm the equity optimism. TLT ended lower at 89.515 versus 89.87, while intermediates and short duration were also down modestly, IEF at 97.00 versus 97.20 and SHY at 82.98 versus 83.03.
This is where the Fed-minutes headline bites. Even if the market doesn’t truly expect hikes, discussion of a hike as a conditional outcome reinforces the idea that policy is a one-way ratchet toward restraint when inflation is stubborn. Bond pricing tends to respond to that kind of asymmetry faster than stocks do, particularly when the commodity complex is sending loud signals at the same time.
Commodities
The commodity tape was the day’s loudest megaphone. Crude surged in the headline stream, and the market reflected it. USO closed at 79.41 versus 75.73, up about 4.86%. DBC, a broad commodities basket, rose to 24.205 from 23.59, up about 2.61%.
Then came the metals. Gold jumped hard, GLD ended at 458.17 versus 448.20, up about 2.22%. Silver was even more aggressive, SLV closed at 70.09 from 66.37, up about 5.61%. That is not a quiet “portfolio hedge” move, it is a statement move. And it landed on a day when headline chatter also included long-range, high-conviction arguments about gold’s secular trajectory. Regardless of anyone’s long-term thesis, the one-day message is simpler, hard assets had the bid, and it was not subtle.
Natural gas was the exception, UNG slipped to 11.875 from 11.90, down about 0.21%. That divergence is useful. Today wasn’t a broad, uniform inflation panic across every energy molecule. It was oil risk and metals momentum, with gas behaving more like its own weather-driven market.
FX & crypto
In FX, the euro traded softer versus its open. EURUSD marked at 1.1780, with an open near 1.1839, a low near 1.1780 and a high near 1.1848. The intraday range was tight, but the direction matters, a slightly firmer dollar tone can coincide with higher oil and higher yields, a combination that tends to increase global financial gravity rather than reduce it.
Crypto looked like risk appetite with a hangover. Bitcoin marked at 66,239.88, below its open of 67,797.93, with a high of 68,466.28 and a low of 65,815.07. Ether marked at 1,938.01, also below its open of 1,998.63, with a high of 2,039.56 and a low of 1,921.98. When equities close green but crypto fades, it can be a clue that the most speculative pocket is still de-leveraging even if the stock market’s surface looks calm.
Notable headlines
Several news threads shaped the day’s “why” behind the moves.
- Fed minutes coverage flagged discussion of a possible rate hike if inflation does not cool. That kind of conditional hawkishness helps explain why long-duration bonds did not rally even as stocks pushed higher.
- Oil jumped more than 2% in headlines after comments that military strikes are on the table if Iran ignored a key U.S. demand. The market expression showed up clearly in USO and XLE.
- AI remained the market’s organizing principle. Coverage highlighted Alphabet’s new AI music model and a separate thread around Nvidia’s partnership expansion with Meta, which aligned with strength in NVDA and firmness in META.
- Palo Alto Networks was in the headlines for a post-earnings drop and underwhelming outlook, another reminder that “AI” is not a blanket shield for every software name. (Price data for PANW was not available here.)
- Housing starts were reported to have jumped to the highest level in five months, a data point that fits with the market’s ongoing debate over whether the economy is slowing or simply rotating.
- Infrastructure spending returned to the political front pages, with the administration releasing $127 million in overdue funds for the New York-New Jersey Gateway tunnel project, while emphasizing the federal government would not cover overruns.
Risks
- Geopolitical escalation risk, especially if Middle East tensions continue to translate into oil supply anxiety, which can re-ignite inflation fears quickly.
- Policy asymmetry risk, Fed minutes talk of a hike-if-inflation-stays-high can tighten financial conditions even without an actual hike.
- Hard-asset surge risk, sharp gains in GLD and SLV can be a warning light for inflation psychology, or a sign of crowding and volatility.
- Duration sensitivity, weakness in TLT and XLU underscores that rate pressure remains a live wire for equity valuation.
- AI “winners vs. losers” dispersion, upbeat infrastructure names can hold up while parts of software or cyber stumble, creating fragile index-level calm.
What to watch next
- Follow-through in crude-linked instruments, whether USO and XLE hold gains after the headline impulse fades.
- The next move in long duration, whether TLT stabilizes or continues to leak lower, a quick read on whether markets are repricing the Fed path.
- Whether precious metals keep accelerating, especially SLV after a 5%+ day, a test of whether the move is trend or shock.
- Big tech’s ability to lead without pulling the rest of the market into a narrow, top-heavy rally, watch NVDA, META, AAPL, and MSFT for leadership continuity.
- Defense strength as a geopolitics proxy, the relative moves in NOC, LMT, and RTX.
- FX and crypto confirmation, whether EURUSD continues to trade heavy and whether BTC and ETH regain their footing after closing below their opens.
- Ongoing headline sensitivity around inflation credibility, including any additional Fed communication that clarifies whether hike talk was a real contingency or just a theoretical line in the minutes.