Overview
The close had that familiar split-screen feel. The broad market held together, even found a little lift, but the underlying vote was messier. SPY ended at 682.76 versus 681.75 previously, while DIA closed at 495.88 versus 495.28. Small caps were essentially flat, with IWM at 263.04 versus 262.96. The growth complex never quite grabbed the baton, and QQQ slipped to 601.19 from 601.92.
That’s the headline, but the real punctuation was elsewhere. Gold and silver took a clean hit, with GLD down to 448.255 from 462.62 and SLV to 66.37 from 69.72. Energy leaned weak too, USO at 75.70 from 76.22 and UNG at 11.90 from 12.44. In other words, equities finished calm, but the classic “stuff” trades were under pressure. That disconnect stands out.
Rotation, not celebration, defined the day. Financials had real bid, with XLF finishing at 52.20 versus 51.65, while staples got clipped, XLP closing 88.21 versus 89.51. Industrials pushed higher, XLI at 175.10 versus 174.17. Tech was basically unchanged at the ETF level, XLK at 139.52 versus 139.56, and that flat print masked some very different stories underneath.
Macro backdrop
The rates complex kept the market honest. The latest Treasury curve readings showed the 2-year at 3.47% (Feb. 12), the 10-year at 4.09%, and the 30-year at 4.72%. Compared with Feb. 11, yields moved down across key tenors (2-year from 3.52%, 10-year from 4.18%, 30-year from 4.82%). The direction was friendly, but the level still screams “tight financial conditions” in plain English. Equity multiples can coexist with these yields, but they can’t ignore them forever. That tension is the backdrop to every AI-capex debate currently ripping through big tech.
Inflation readings and expectations offered a mixed kind of comfort. CPI index levels rose from 326.031 (Dec. 2025) to 326.588 (Jan. 2026), and core CPI index levels moved from 331.814 to 332.793. Meanwhile model-based inflation expectations for Feb. 2026 sat around 2.59% (1-year), 2.37% (5-year), and 2.36% (10-year). The market’s problem is not a single number, it’s confidence. MarketWatch highlighted a new Federal Reserve study that raises doubts about whether inflation has truly slowed the way the market wants to believe. When skepticism returns, it usually shows up first as multiple compression in the long-duration parts of the market and as renewed respect for cash-flow certainty. Today’s sector tape leaned in that direction.
One more macro tell was visual, not theoretical. Hard assets did not behave like a market bracing for inflation flare-ups. They behaved like a market taking profits and reducing exposure. The plunge in GLD and SLV lined up with headlines about gold dropping below $5,000 an ounce on profit-taking, and silver pressure that was already showing up in miners earlier in the day. Whatever the strategic arguments for metals, the tactical action was clear at the close. The trade got crowded, and the exit door widened.
Equities
The broad indexes finished with an almost choreographed balance. SPY added roughly a point on a holiday-shortened comparison versus the last close, and DIA did the same. But QQQ drifted lower, and that’s been the recurring pattern during this tech-heavy selloff. The market can tolerate tech weakness when other parts of the economy take the baton. It cannot tolerate tech weakness if the rest of the market starts following it down. Today, it didn’t.
Under the surface, the mega-cap picture was a tug of war between “AI is the future” and “AI is expensive.” AAPL jumped from 255.78 to 263.75 on the day, after trading as high as 266.29, with volume at 48.75 million shares. That’s a clean risk-on move in a name that often behaves like a market proxy. NVDA also finished higher, 185.0299 versus 182.81, after trading up to 187.15, on heavy volume of 154.95 million.
But the rest of the megacap cluster didn’t offer a uniform “all clear.” MSFT fell to 396.71 from 401.32. GOOGL slid to 302.03 from 305.72 after trading down to 296.25. META was basically unchanged, 639.27 versus 639.77, while AMZN ticked up to 201.235 from 198.79 but still traded as low as 196.00 intraday. The message is not “tech is dead.” It’s “tech is being priced like a sector that has to prove payback, not just promise growth.” That matters.
Outside tech, the consumer tape looked selective. TSLA dropped to 410.67 from 417.44 after hitting 400.51 on the low, while HD slid to 383.12 from 391.05. Streaming was steady, NFLX at 77.035 versus 76.87, and legacy media was calm, DIS at 105.47 versus 105.45 and CMCSA at 31.565 versus 31.57.
Sectors
Leadership rotated to the parts of the market that like a stable economy and a still-steep cost of capital. Financials led. XLF rose to 52.20 from 51.65, a meaningful move on a day when the Nasdaq proxy sagged. Banks were active in single names too, with JPM climbing to 307.145 from 302.55 and BAC edging up to 52.75 from 52.55. Headlines around potential credit-card interest rate caps kept the politics in view, but the price action leaned toward “the group can absorb noise,” at least for a session.
Industrials participated. XLI finished at 175.10 from 174.17, while defense names were mixed: RTX gained to 203.54 from 200.06, LMT dipped to 649.74 from 652.58, and NOC was slightly lower at 701.255 from 702.57. It read like measured buying rather than stampede buying, consistent with a market that’s rotating without abandoning caution.
Energy was the weak spot. XLE fell to 53.76 from 54.35, echoing softness in oil and broad commodities. The large integrateds reflected it, with XOM down to 146.24 from 148.45 and CVX down to 180.59 from 183.74. That’s a lot of red for a group that’s been treated as a cash-flow shelter at various points over the cycle. When energy can’t rally with stocks holding firm, it’s usually saying something about demand expectations or positioning, and today the positioning angle looked plausible given the broader commodity selloff.
Defensives were not the refuge either. XLP dropped sharply, 88.21 from 89.51, while utilities were slightly lower, XLU at 46.395 from 46.50. Health care was modestly lower at the ETF level, XLV at 157.44 versus 157.67, even as the pharma complex had stock-specific catalysts. The tape wasn’t screaming “recession.” It was simply unwilling to pay up for the whole defensive basket on autopilot.
Bonds
Bond ETFs were quiet, which is often when they matter most. TLT ticked up to 89.875 from 89.72. IEF was essentially flat at 97.19 versus 97.21, and SHY dipped to 83.025 from 83.06. The action matched the modest pullback in yields seen in the latest curve snapshots.
The bigger point is the regime. With the 10-year still around the low-4% range and the 30-year in the high-4s on recent readings, duration is not a free hedge, it’s a conscious stance. MarketWatch also flagged the case for 30-year Treasurys as a hedge. Today’s fractional uptick in TLT, alongside equity resilience and commodity weakness, fit the idea of investors wanting ballast without making a dramatic flight-to-quality call.
Commodities
Commodities did not whisper today, they spoke in full sentences. GLD sank from 462.62 to 448.255, and SLV slid from 69.72 to 66.37. Those are big moves in two sessions that often serve as psychological anchors. Bloomberg and MarketWatch both pointed to gold dropping below $5,000 on profit-taking and reduced support during China holidays. Whatever the trigger, the trade was crowded enough to gap lower when the mood shifted.
Energy followed the same gravity. USO eased to 75.70 from 76.22, while UNG dropped to 11.90 from 12.44. Broad commodities via DBC fell to 23.59 from 23.88. Combine that with XLE down on the day, and the message is consistent: investors were not chasing inflation hedges into the close. They were trimming them.
FX & crypto
FX was calm in the snapshot available. EURUSD marked at 1.1849338 late in the session. High, low, and open data were not shown in the quote, so the intraday path is not visible here, but the headline is stability rather than a dollar shock.
Crypto traded heavy and choppy. Bitcoin marked at 67,701.8234, below its open of 68,462.2350, after trading as high as 68,512.0291 and as low as 66,545.0033. Ether marked 1,994.0028, above its open of 1,988.9394, with a range from 1,939.5007 to 2,015.6742. The texture looked like risk appetite being expressed selectively, not broadly. Bitcoin faded, Ether held a little better. That split is common when leverage is being watched closely and positioning is tight.
Notable headlines
The day’s narratives kept circling back to one theme: AI is both the growth engine and the wrecking ball. CNBC reported Anthropic’s release of Claude Sonnet 4.6, continuing a rapid cadence of model updates. MarketWatch and other reports leaned into the market anxiety that these tools could disrupt subscription software economics. That backdrop helps explain why tech at the ETF level can look stable while individual software names and sentiment stay brittle.
Inflation skepticism also resurfaced. MarketWatch flagged a new Fed study questioning whether inflation has truly slowed. In a market still living under a high-rate ceiling, that kind of doubt doesn’t need to be “proven” in a single day. It just needs to circulate to keep multiples from expanding.
Gold’s break was its own headline. MarketWatch and Bloomberg both pointed to gold sliding below $5,000, framed as profit-taking and reduced support. Meanwhile CNBC highlighted premarket weakness in silver miners as silver dropped. By the close, that theme had fully translated into ETF prices, with GLD and SLV showing decisive downside.
On the corporate front, stock-specific news helped explain cross-currents. MarketWatch highlighted insider-style signaling in software, including a report about ServiceNow’s CEO buying stock, framed as a bottom-calling gesture. In mega-cap, MarketWatch ran a piece on Amazon’s worst losing streak in nearly two decades, focused on the familiar question of whether spending plans will pay off, an echo of the broader AI capex debate. Those stories are not identical, but they rhyme. Markets are rewarding clear payback stories and punishing anything that looks like open-ended spend.
Risks
- Commodity unwind risk: The sharp declines in GLD, SLV, UNG, and DBC suggest positioning shifts can be abrupt, even when equities look composed.
- AI disruption repricing: Rapid AI model releases and ongoing “software selloff” narratives keep the earnings durability debate active, especially with QQQ lagging.
- High-rate regime: Recent yields (10-year around 4.09%, 30-year around 4.72% on the latest readings) leave less room for valuation mistakes.
- Sector dispersion: Financials strength (XLF up) alongside staples weakness (XLP down) can persist, but it also raises the risk of sudden reversals if macro confidence wobbles.
- Crypto volatility: Bitcoin’s lower close versus its open, with a wide intraday range, underscores how quickly risk sentiment can change.
What to watch next
- Tech leadership check: Whether QQQ can stop lagging while SPY stays firm, and whether mega-cap dispersion narrows.
- AI capex credibility: Continued debate around spending versus returns, reflected in the divergent moves of MSFT (down) and NVDA (up) today.
- Hard-asset stabilization: Follow-through after the selloff in GLD and SLV, and whether energy equities (XLE) find footing.
- Curve and duration sensitivity: Any move back up in longer yields would test the modest bid seen in TLT.
- Financials momentum: Whether the strength in XLF, JPM, and BAC holds as policy headlines around credit cards circulate.
- Crypto risk temperature: Bitcoin’s ability to hold near 67,700 after opening above 68,400, and Ether’s relative resilience near 1,994.