SQM Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Lithium Volumes Surge on Price Recovery and China Supply Gaps

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. Now it’s my pleasure to hand the conference to Megan Suitor with Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Megan Suitor, Investor Relations, SQM: Good day, and thank you for joining SQM’s earnings conference call for the first quarter of 2026. This call is being recorded and webcast live. Our earnings press release and the accompanying results presentation are available on our website, where you can also find a link to the webcast. Today’s participants include Mr. Ricardo Ramos, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Pablo Altimiras, CEO of the Iodine and Plant Nutrition Division, Mr. Pablo Hernández, Vice President of Strategy and Development of Novandino Lithium, Mr. Andres Fontannaz, Commercial Vice President of the International Lithium Division, and Mr. Max Vial, Head of Studies of the International Lithium Division.

Before we begin, please note that statements made during this call regarding our business outlook, future economic performance, anticipated profitability, revenues, expenses, and other financial items, along with expected cost synergies and product or service line growth, are considered forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities law. These statements are not historical facts and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We assume no obligation to update these statements except as required by law. For a full discussion of forward-looking statements, please refer to our earnings press release and presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Ricardo Ramos.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank3: Good day, and thank you for joining us today. We reported strong results for the first quarter of the year, reflecting a strong performance across our key business lines. The first quarter of 2026 also marked an important milestone for SQM and for TLIP, as our partnership with Codelco through Novandino Lithium completed the first full quarter of operations. This partnership represents much more than a business combination. It reflects a long-term commitment to responsibly developing Salar de Atacama lithium resources, while creating value not only for our shareholders, but also for the country and local communities. We are operating at full capacity, delivering strong operational and financial results, while continuing to invest in future growth and production expansion. Importantly, during the first quarter alone, Novandino Lithium generated more than $530 million in contributions to the Chilean state through payments to CORFO, taxes, and transfers to local governments.

We believe this demonstrates the scale of value this operation creates and the meaningful role it plays in supporting Chile’s long-term economic development. Starting our business analysis with lithium, total sales volumes in the first quarter increased by 25% year-over-year, reaching approximately 69,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent across our operations. Based on our current estimates, global lithium demand could exceed 1.9 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent this year, while market dynamics continue to suggest a tight supply-demand balance. As a result, we have increased our lithium sales volume guidance for the year and now expect total lithium sales volumes to grow by approximately 15% compared to 2025. Given current market conditions, we also believe average realized price in the second quarter could be higher than those reported in the first quarter.

In Chile, Novandino Lithium delivered a solid first quarter sales volumes, and we expect volumes to continue increasing quarter-over-quarter. In parallel, we continue advancing in the Salar Futuro project and expect to begin the environmental permitting process in the coming months. In our international lithium division, operations in Australia also delivered strong results. Mount Holland and the concentrator are operating at full capacity, while they continue advancing in the ramp-up of Kwinana Refinery, which is expected to be fully operational during 2027. Moving to our Specialty Plant Nutrition business line, we’re also increasing our sales guidance for the year. We now expect sales volumes to grow by approximately 10% compared to 2025, driven by reduced potassium nitrate export from China, which have created supply gaps in international markets. We believe SQM is well-positioned to help provide the supply the market needs.

In iodine, we delivered a strong quarter, and we expect this trend to continue into the second quarter, as the spot transaction prices have continued to increase, particularly in Asian markets. For the full year, we continue to expect iodine sales volume to be broadly in line with last year or slightly higher. We’re remaining focused on operating at maximum capacity. At Nueva Victoria, the seawater pipeline is currently under commissioning, and it is expected to support future production capacity growth. Overall, we continue to observe supportive market conditions across our key business lines, and we believe SQM is well-positioned to continue delivering solid results and creating value for our shareholders. With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for the Q&A. Thank you.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Thank you. It comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Evan Jackson, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Hi, good afternoon. It’s Evan on for Joel. Thanks for taking the questions. Just have a couple here. This first one’s on the lithium pricing movement. Does the movement over the last year make SQM feel more bullish or the same about mid-cycle pricing?

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank2: Hey, Joel. Pablo Hernández from Novandino speaking. I’ll refer to our pricing if this helps answer your question. In Q1 2026, our average sales price was roughly $18 per kilo, which was substantially higher than the $10 per kilo we reached in Q4 2025. Our realized prices remain mainly linked to the pricing indexes. Consequently, of course, we expect our sales prices in Q2 2026 is expected to be higher than what we had in Q1 2026. We’re still in a very high volatile price scenario, so it’s difficult to predict prices beyond Q2.

Evan Jackson, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Okay, thank you. Also, how does SQM plan to deploy windfall free cash flow this year, driven by the higher lithium prices and higher earnings? In the past, you’ve done special dividends. Should the market expect this again?

Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer, SQM: Hi, this is Gerardo speaking. Yes, we finished the first quarter with a higher cash and cash equivalent than what we had at the end of last year, mainly because of higher prices of lithium, higher prices of iodine, higher prices of nitrates. You have to consider that right after that, we pay dividends 50% of the net income of last year. We also have to make payments to CORFO and other payments that are tax-related payments and others. We are constantly assessing opportunities to distribute dividends. In the past, we have done that, but at this quarter, we have not taken any decision so far.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everyone. I just have three questions. The first one is on the SPN business. You have announced an increase in your guidance for 10% growth in volume, versus about 2%-3% before. You’ve talked about really taking share away from China and Asian markets. Can you just provide some color as to what’s going on in China that’s causing them to focus more on their domestic market? How sustainable do you think this is?

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank1: Hello, Ben. Pablo Altimiras speaking. Yes, that’s right. We intend to increase our volumes in 10%, as you said. This is more related with increasing potassium nitrate sales. As you know, by the end of March, China suspends the export of potassium nitrate abroad. That means that allow us to go to markets where we normally are not going. That open an opportunity to put more volume in the market, that explain mainly our growth. Regarding what’s going on in China, well, it’s difficult to say. In China also, you see that today is not the only restriction in that product, potassium nitrate. You have other products that are restricted, it’s not easy to see what will happen in the future. However, in the meantime, we have the opportunity.

We are well prepared because we have the capacity, the install capacity, inventories, and our supply chain worldwide ready if the market needs more potassium nitrate.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Great, thank you. My next question is on iodine. We’ve had elevated prices for quite some time, and if we go back, I can’t remember how long it was, maybe 12 years ago, I can’t remember, but when prices were this level again, at this level, it didn’t last that long, and we saw supply coming to market, and then we saw prices dropping. What gives you the confidence, and I know supply is coming to market slowly, but what gives you the confidence that we won’t see an acceleration in supply of iodine over the next two or three years that will disrupt this pricing environment?

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank1: Well, I would say that, first of all, if you try to compare the market today with what was the market 10, 12 years ago, it’s too much high. I think that it’s not so easy to compare. The market is much higher than before. The participation of the different applications has changed. Today you have, for example, much more importance of X-ray contrast media. That didn’t happen before. Today, let’s say that you have some changes in the market. What we have seen is that marginal projects are not there, when they arrive, normally they are higher cost than before, that also puts some pressure in the price structure, let’s say. Today, well, we are confident because the matter of supply and demand. In Q1, we saw a very strong demand.

We believe that the market growth in Q1 more than 3%, that sustain, that we believe that this year the market will grow 3%.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank3: In the meantime that happened and the supply is not there, we believe that, well, everything is there to remain this level of prices.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Thank you. Then my final question is on Salar Futuro. Can you just remind us what the CapEx spend looks like and the timing of the outflow? The real question is to do with inflation, whether it’s the impact of what’s happened with respect to the Iran war or whether it’s tariffs or whether it’s general inflation. We’re seeing CapEx for projects around the world increase. Can you talk about what impact inflation is going to have on the Salar Futuro project and how that could impact returns? Thank you.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank3: Hello, Ricardo Ramos speaking. As you may know, we expect to file the environmental study of Salar Futuro in the next few months, probably before the end of the third quarter. We’re assessing now what is going to be the total investment, and our first estimate is in the range of CLP 3 billion, the investment in Salar Futuro. You are right in terms that there is a lot of uncertainty in the world in terms of cost, in terms of the pricing of raw material, everything. We don’t have a full understanding of how long it will take to solve these issues that we are facing today, especially because the war. Yes, inflation is an issue, but inflation also is affecting the price of our different commodities.

That’s why if the total investment is affected by inflation, and it will be, of course, pricing of the different products that we sell worldwide, like iodine, lithium, everything will be affected by the inflation, means will increase accordingly. That’s why we do not expect that the project will be affected in terms of the return of the profitability of the project. I think it’s going to be an extremely good project. We are very proud of the new technology that we will implement. We are doing things very good in the Salar de Atacama as we speak. We’re moving as far as we can. Of course, the environmental study and environmental review of a project like that takes some time. We think that during the year 2029, we’ll have the final approval. That’s what we expect. We will start investment in the Salar Futuro project during 2030.

Everything is according our original plan with Codelco. I think that we’re just a little better in the plan because we have been working very hard together. I think everything is moving in the right direction.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Thank you very much.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Corinne Blanchard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Can you talk about the lithium volume outlook arrays? You’re now targeting 15% up year-over-year, which would bring you almost close to the 300 kiloton. Can you first talk about the cadence? Are we seeing that increase already starting in 2Q, or is it more like a second half of the year story? Then is it coming, those volume, are they coming from a production or is it also you maybe offloading some of your inventory? Thank you.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank2: Hey, Corinne, Pablo Hernández speaking. We’re expecting strong sales volumes in Q2 2026. We hope to surpass the sales volume of Q1 2025 by more than 10%, hitting a record volume for any past calendar quarter. We continue maximizing our sales volume as we have consistently done over the years, following our decision to operate at full capacity and expanding it in line with the anticipated market growth. Ensuring we’re always prepared to meet our customers’ needs. Aligned with that strategy, we feel confident that we will successfully allocate in the market the additional production that we expect to achieve this year, which is going to be over 270,000 metric tons coming from the Salar de Atacama. There’s significant appetite for lithium units in the market.

Corinne Blanchard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Thank you. Sorry, I wanted to. two questions for you, maybe. Spodumene price in month end. If you compare versus some of your peers, I think you have got a much lower price. Can you comment maybe of the driver and the why here, and how do you view that for the rest of the year? quick another question. I want to go back on the capital allocation. I know, Gerardo, you mentioned you haven’t yet decided if it’s going to be special dividends. If it’s not special dividends, what are you going to do with the cash? Thank you.

Andres Fontannaz, Commercial Vice President of the International Lithium Division, SQM: Hey, Corinne. Andres Fontannaz from International Lithium speaking. Regarding your question on spodumene price, well, the difference between our realized price for concentrate and the quarterly average of some of the indexes is mainly explained by two factors. First, you have the market volatility during the last few months. For example, December, you saw prices at around CLP 1,300. In March, it was more than CLP 2,000. The realized price for any given producer depends on the timing of the negotiations and the shipments within that price cycle. Second, spodumene shipments are not continuous or evenly distributed month to month.

Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer, SQM: When you combine strong price recovery with the lumpy nature of the shipments, you can see some difference between the reported realized prices and the quarter average of some of the market benchmarks. From a commercial standpoint, we remain comfortable with our positioning, as we continue to optimize both the timing and flexibility between spodumene and downstream hydroxide sales. Hi, Corinne, this is Gerardo. Regarding your question about the capital allocation, I think there are a few things that have to be considered. First, given what Pablo just mentioned about higher volume sales from Salar de Atacama, and with these price levels, our payments to Corfo, the government of Chile, our local communities, will be higher than last year and probably higher than the first quarter in the upcoming quarters. We will have a lot of need for cash to basically comply with these obligations.

Second, we have a high CapEx program. We are expanding capacity in Chile. We’re working on initiatives in the IOI operations as well as in the international lithium division. Of course, we have a dividend policy that considers payments of dividends at the year-end. Well, it’s approved on the shareholders’ meeting and is paid right after. In the past, we have made interim dividend payments, when we have seen the opportunity to do so. Of course, this year, we are assessing that. This is just the first quarter of the year. The board will reconvene, and we’ll discuss about opportunities, and if appropriate, interim dividends will be paid. Otherwise, we will see a final dividend paid at the end of the fiscal year.

Isabella Simonato, Analyst, Bank of America: Thank you, guys.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Thank you. One moment for our next question. It comes from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Isabella Simonato, Analyst, Bank of America: Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Just if you could give a little bit more details about taxes paid in the quarter, so effective tax rate was higher than what you usually have. If you can provide a little bit more details about why that happened in the quarter. Second, back to the SQM business. As you said, you are more optimistic about sales and share gains and pricing of fertilizers in general have definitely been a theme, given the war. If you can comment also on how do you see prices evolving throughout the year would be helpful. Thank you.

Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer, SQM: Hi, Isabella, Gerardo speaking. Regarding the taxes that we pay, it’s important to keep in consideration that within the tax line, of course, we have the corporate income tax that we pay in Chile, which is 27%, along with the taxes that we pay abroad, which of course, it varies by jurisdiction, but we can say that on average it’s something around 30%. On top of that, we pay a mining royalty in Chile. This mining royalty is basically a function of the profitability of the business. The higher the profitability of the business, the higher the bracket you fall in. Basically, that profitability is considered or is calculated based on the total revenues you get on the exports of products from Chile, and the cost that we have on those products, excluding the payments that we make to Corfo.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank1: with the higher prices of lithium that we saw during the first quarter, the profitability of the lithium business went up. Because of that, the lithium mining royalty that was paid during the first quarter of this year, or not paid, but accrued during the first quarter of this year, is higher than what it was in the past. Hello, Isabella, Pablo Altimiras speaking. Well, regarding to your question, we are optimistic regarding to the price trends in our specialty fertilizers business. The reason is what we already explained. Today, we have a lack of supply because of the China situation. On top of that, the environment, because of the war, is affecting our raw materials or other fertilizers that are related with our potassium nitrate business. One example is the price of potassium sulfate, it is growing.

Because of that, today, support the potassium nitrate price trend. We are optimistic, and we believe that the price will continue increasing in the next quarters.

Isabella Simonato, Analyst, Bank of America: Thank you very much. Gerardo, can you give us a ballpark about how can we think about mining taxes, the rate? I know that it was something between 8% to 10%, just wanted to double-check.

Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer, SQM: Well, of course, all of this is public information, and you can find how this is exactly calculated on public records. The mining royalty goes between 0%-14%, and currently, based on the profitability of the business, is between 11%-12%. Out of the profit that we get on the lithium business, excluding the Corfo payments.

Isabella Simonato, Analyst, Bank of America: Super clear. Thank you very much.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Thank you. Our next question comes from Emerson Vieira with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Emerson Vieira, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hello, good morning. I have two questions on Mount Holland. The first one, just trying to understand here when you guys expect to carry on with the expansion, given that we saw news that the expansion was recently approved by regulators. Just on timing for Mount Holland expansion, and what is the all-in cost that the operation is running right now? Thank you.

Andres Fontannaz, Commercial Vice President of the International Lithium Division, SQM: Thanks, Emerson, for the question. Andres Fontannaz speaking. Regarding the expansion, we continue executing the plan, and expect to present the Mount Holland expansion for the board’s review and decision early Q3 2026. Regarding permitting, that’s progressing well, and it’s currently under a public review period. At this stage, we do not have access to see if any appeals have been lodged. Once the appeals period officially closes, this is at midnight on May 28th, we will request confirmation of whether any appeals were submitted. In parallel, you know that we remain focused on sustaining full capacity operations at the existing mine and concentrator. Regarding cost, we do not comment on the specific costs for that operation.

Emerson Vieira, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Okay. Thank you. Very clear. Can you share with us what would be ballpark CapEx for the expansion? I know studies are ongoing, but any number here could be very helpful.

Andres Fontannaz, Commercial Vice President of the International Lithium Division, SQM: Regarding the CapEx, we are working it. It will be presented for the board. As commented previously, what is considered for next year is CLP 200 million. That is only for 2027. That is the SQM share for that.

Emerson Vieira, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Okay. Thank you very much.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Thank you so much. As a reminder, if you do have a question, please press star one one to get in the queue. Our next question is from Juraj Domic with LarrainVial. Please proceed.

Juraj Domic, Analyst, LarrainVial: Hello. Good evening, and thanks for taking our questions. I have two of them. The first one is on cash cost. This excluding the depreciation and CORFO payments. We saw a significant improvement in lithium and also a weaker performance in iodine. My question is, what should we expect for the rest of 2026? Perhaps moving to my second question. In previous conference calls, you’ve mentioned that the BESS application accounts for around 20% of the total demand of lithium. What would you say is this BESS share so far in 2026? Thank you.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank2: Hello, Juraj. Regarding the cash cost or operating cost, I’m speaking about NOA and DINO. As consequence of continued efficiency and improvement processes, together with the economies of scale, so our increased production levels, we have indeed consistently been able to make cost improvements. We expect the 2026 cost to be lower than the one we had in 2025. This is, of course, aligned with our production strategy of increasing production at low cost.

Max Vial, Head of Studies of the International Lithium Division, SQM: Hello, Juraj. Max Vial speaking. Regarding the best participation in the demand of the market for lithium, we expect something around 30% for BSF overall demand.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank1: Hello, Juraj. Pablo Altimiras speaking. Regarding your question about the iodine increase. Well, first of all, I would remind that the increase is not too much, but there are some explanation for that. The first one is that we are producing quite with volume. Remember that we intend this year to produce more than 15,000 meters of iodine. That means that we are using some marginal facilities that they have higher cost. Second, well, we are in the ramp up of Maria Elena, so that means that we have some specific cost related to the ramp up. Third, that we cannot forget is that because of the situation of the war, the cost of some raw materials, mainly fuel, which is very important for our mining activity, it will increase. Those are the reasons. However, as always, we are working in different initiatives to control the cost increase.

Juraj Domic, Analyst, LarrainVial: Perfect. Thank you very much.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank0: Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our Q&A session and conference for today. We want to thank everyone for participating. You may now disconnect