RGC Resources Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Winter Storm Fern created an $8M to $10M gas-cost undercollection that will drive the rate case and near-term cash work
Summary
RGC reported a steady first quarter, with delivered volumes roughly flat year over year, 196 new service connections, and $5.6 million of Q1 capital spend. Profitability slipped modestly, net income was $4.8 million or $0.47 per share versus $5.3 million or $0.51 a year ago, as small margin gains and lower interest expense were offset by higher personnel, IT, property tax, and depreciation costs. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 capital of $22 million and EPS guidance of $1.27 to $1.35.
The defining development was Winter Storm Fern. Severe cold in late January drove local heating degree days far above normal, sent Henry Hub spot prices roughly tenfold on peak days, and produced an estimated $8 million to $10 million undercollection of pass-through gas costs. RGC plans to work with regulators to recover that amount, while an expedited Roanoke Gas rate case filed in December seeks roughly $4.3 million in incremental revenue with interim rates effective January 1, subject to refund. Other items to watch: a $15 million Roanoke Gas note moved to current liabilities pending refinancing, an industrial customer signaling a likely plant closure later in 2026, and weather-related construction delays that will depress Q2 activity unless crews make up lost time.
Key Takeaways
- Winter Storm Fern in late January produced an extreme cold snap, driving Roanoke heating degree days 53% above normal from Jan 24 to Feb 9, and spiking Henry Hub prices roughly 10x on Jan 22-24.
- Management estimates a $8 million to $10 million undercollection of pass-through natural gas costs from the winter price spike, and will seek recovery through the regulatory process over 12 to 18 months.
- Roanoke Gas filed an expedited rate case on Dec 2 seeking about $4.3 million in incremental annual revenue, based on an authorized ROE of 9.9%; interim rates began Jan 1 and are subject to refund pending final adjudication, expected by year-end.
- Q1 delivered volumes were flat year over year; a single large industrial customer reduced usage from record levels, while residential volumes rose 8% and other commercial volumes increased, helped by a roughly 11% rise in heating degree days versus Q1 last year.
- Net income for Q1 was $4.8 million, or $0.47 per share, down from $5.3 million or $0.51 in Q1 2025, as modest gas margin gains and lower interest expense were more than offset by higher personnel, IT, property tax, and depreciation costs.
- Capital spending in Q1 was $5.6 million, flat year over year; full-year fiscal 2026 capital remains guided at $22 million, but winter weather removed about two weeks of construction, roughly 17% of working days in the quarter, which may suppress Q2 activity.
- Earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026 remains $1.27 to $1.35, unchanged from the December outlook; the rate case outcome and interest on the winter undercollection are key variables for hitting that range.
- Roanoke Gas moved a $15 million note due in August into current liabilities, and management expects to refinance it in the coming months, with preliminary lender conversations underway.
- The company highlighted operational resilience: the distribution system and interstate pipeline supplies held up through the cold snap, the LNG peaking plant was required and used, and there were no customer outages reported.
- Roanoke has an existing backlog of new main to install, about 13,000 feet or 2.5 miles, and connected 196 new services in Q1, similar to the prior year; main miles installed were 0.6 in Q1 versus 1.1 a year ago.
- The SAVE program renewed 117 services in Q1, an 80% increase year over year, reflecting ongoing investment in safety and reliability.
- Management is engaging with Virginia lawmakers as the new governor and legislature address affordability and data center issues, noting current legislation is not targeting natural gas limitations.
- Management called out one top-five industrial customer announcing an operations change likely to lead to plant closure later in 2026, and they are coordinating with commission staff to address rate-case implications.
Full Transcript
Speaker 1: The host is recording this meeting. Line muted. Press pound pound 1 or hash hash 1 to speak.
Kelsie Davenport, Director of Finance, RGC Resources, Inc.: Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we discuss RGC Resources 2026 first quarter results. I am Kelsie Davenport, Director of Finance for RGC Resources, Inc. I am joined this morning by Paul Nester, President and CEO of RGC Resources, Tim Mulvaney, our VP, Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer, and Tommy Oliver, our Senior Vice President of Regulatory and External Affairs. Let’s review a few administrative items. We have muted all lines and ask that all participants remain muted. The link to today’s presentation is available on the Investor and Financial Information page of our website at www.rgcresources.com. At the conclusion of the presentation and our remarks, we will take questions. Turning to slide 1. This presentation contains forecasts, projections, and comments about earnings, capital spending, and gas prices.
Slide 1 has information about risk and uncertainty, including forward-looking statements that should be understood in the context of our public filings. Slide 2 contains our agenda. We will discuss our operational and financial highlights for the first quarter of our 2026 fiscal year. We will then review our outlook for the rest of the 2026 fiscal year, including an eventful January, with time allotted for questions at the end. I will now turn the presentation over to Paul. Paul?
Paul Nester, President and CEO, RGC Resources: Thank you, Kelsie, and good morning. We are on slide 3. Main extensions or renewal activity in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 was steady. We installed 0.6 new main miles in the first quarter and connected 196 new services, which is almost exactly the same as last year with 197 new services in the first quarter of 2025. Just a comment there. The main miles are down a little bit. Last year we had 1.1 new main miles. Some of that’s dependent on weather. We’ve actually got an outstanding backlog of new main to install, approximately 13,000 feet or 2.5 miles. In addition, we renewed through our SAVE program 117 services in the first quarter of this year, which is an increase of 80% over last year.
Together, this investment demonstrates our continued commitment to enhance safety and reliability for our customers, as we’ve been doing for many, many years now. Slide 4 shows our delivered gas volumes for the quarter. Total volumes were flat compared to Q1 last year. One large industrial customer decreased their natural gas usage from their record levels of a year ago. However, residential usage was up 8%, and other commercial volumes increased primarily due to the 11% increase in heating degree days compared to quarter 1 last year. Slide 5 shows capital expenditures for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, and those are compared to the prior year. Total spending of $5.6 million was flat to the same period of last year. Weather was mixed in the quarter this year. We did have some snow and wet weather in early December, which hampered us a little bit.
I will now turn the presentation over to our Chief Financial Officer, Tim Mulvaney, to review the financial results for the quarter. Tim?
Tim Mulvaney, VP, Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer, RGC Resources: Thank you, Paul. Moving to slide 6. We had a steady quarter with gas margins up nominally and lower interest expense as the Fed lowered interest rates. This was more than fully offset by higher costs for personnel, IT, property taxes, and depreciation. Net income of $4.8 million or $0.47 per share compared to a net income in the same quarter a year ago of $5.3 million or $0.51 per share. We filed an expedited rate case in December with interim rates that began on January 1st. Tommy will discuss the rate case in greater detail in just a minute. The MVP pipeline continues to perform well, and our year-over-year financial results from our investment were as expected and in a similar magnitude to a year ago. Our balance sheet remains strong.
One item to bring to your attention is that $15 million note, which matures in August for Roanoke Gas, is now in current liabilities. We fully expect to refinance this note in the coming months and have begun preliminary conversations with our financial institution. I will pass the presentation back to Paul and Tommy to address some of the developments in late January’s cold snap across the eastern half of the United States, as well as our expectations for 2026, including the rate case, capital, and earnings per share. We will then take your questions. Paul?
Paul Nester, President and CEO, RGC Resources: Yeah, thank you, Tim. We are on slide 7. Calendar 2026 has started with a number of really interesting developments. There’s a lot of activity in both the international, national, and even our local landscapes and economies. We’ll get to the weather in just a moment. But here in Virginia, we have a new governor and legislature that has been seated, and they are in session presently. And there’s been a lot of activity there, a lot of new legislation, a lot of discussion about this term of affordability and even data centers. As most of you know, Virginia is considered the data center capital of the world. Fortunately, most of this new legislation is not focused on limiting or stymie natural gas usage or development. We are happy about that.
We are not only monitoring all this legislative activity, but we’re actively engaged with our senators and delegates on any pertinent legislation. The local economy does continue to be solid or even good, but there was a press release recently of a top five industrial customer, a very large manufacturer who’s been prominent in the Roanoke Valley for almost 60 years. They recently announced an operations change that will likely lead to plant closure later in calendar 2026. We have started discussions with the commission staff to address this and our pending rate case. As Tim said, Tommy will review the rate case momentarily. We’re actually on slide 9 now. My apologies. I think I said slide 7 earlier. We’re on slide 9. And the recent winter weather that Tim mentioned has a name. The National Weather Service has attached Fern to this incredible cold snap that we’ve had.
Just a little statistic here. Beginning January 24th through yesterday, February 9th, here in Roanoke, by heating degree day statistic, we have been 53% colder than normal. Really quite incredible. We’ve had 680 heating degree days versus a normal of 445. I’m just very pleased to say, up to this point, our distribution system has performed flawlessly. The interstate pipelines that serve us have performed without issue. I think one of the great stories to come out of Fern will be what natural gas has meant, not only here to us in Roanoke but around the country, particularly in the PJM RTO. Natural gas was providing, on any given day, approximately 45%-50% of the fuel for electricity generation there in this period. Again, I think we’ll hear more about that in the days and weeks ahead. We did not lose any customers.
We’re happy about that, proud of that. We’re especially proud about how our folks worked safely through treacherous, icy conditions. In fact, we’ve had ice on the ground continually since January 24th, and that we haven’t had a slip or fall or car accident is something I’m especially pleased with. Our LNG plant was, in fact, necessary again this winter, providing needed peaking supply on some of the coldest days. One effect of Fern was, at least in my tenure, an unprecedented spike in natural gas prices at the various pricing points, particularly the pricing points that form our supply. We’ve attached a chart here on slide 10 showing you the Henry Hub price. No, the computer didn’t go crazy drawing that chart. As you can see there, on January 22nd, 23rd, and 24th, prices, in fact, multiplied by a factor of approximately 10. Really remarkable.
As you know, and especially if you’ve read our Qs and Ks, natural gas costs are passed through to customers dollar for dollar. There’s no profit or loss there. So we have a pretty, we believe, estimated to be $8 million-$10 million undercollection on gas costs just related to Winter Storm Fern. We’ll work with the commission to try to build those into rates in a reasonable way and hopefully collect those over the next 12-18 months. With that, I’d like to ask Tommy to provide an update on the rate case filing. Tommy?
Tommy Oliver, Senior Vice President of Regulatory and External Affairs, RGC Resources: I want to thank you, Paul. Good morning, everybody. We’re on slide 11 now. As we discussed in our last earnings call, Roanoke Gas filed an expedited rate case on December 2nd, seeking approximately $4.3 million in incremental annual revenue. That’s based on a currently authorized ROE of 9.9%. The interim rates were effective January 1st, 2026, and those are subject to refund once the commission fully adjudicates the case. We expect that to occur by the conclusion of this calendar year. As we also mentioned back in December, offsetting the new rates, we began making credits to customer bills over the next four months, January through April, to return to customers tax credits that we resolved with the IRS late in fiscal 2025 and are now included with our regulatory liabilities on the balance sheet. Paul, I’m going to turn it back over to you now.
Paul Nester, President and CEO, RGC Resources: Thank you, Tommy. I appreciate all the great work Tommy and his team are doing on the rate case filing. We are now on slide 12 and sharing with you our capital forecast for this fiscal year. We’re still at $22 million, which was the same as we forecasted in December on the year-end call. Just to note, though, obviously, this winter weather is going to hamper the second quarter. It’s going to be weaker. We’ve essentially lost two weeks of construction, again, due to all that snow and ice that is still on the ground. It’s approximately 17% of the working days in the quarter. We’ll see how that, when the weather breaks in the spring and summer, how much of that we can make up. But it is possible. Two weeks is a lot to make up across all the crews. But we’re watching and monitoring that.
Moving to slide 13, our earnings per share forecast is also the same as we shared with you in December, the range of $1.27-$1.35. Certainly, the rate case that Tommy mentioned is a large factor in that. Some of the economic and political and inflation and interest rate variables that we’re all experiencing also play a part in that. There’s going to be some interest expense with that under collection that we just talked about that’s going to work against us. I’d like to conclude my remarks just one more time by thanking all of our employees, each and every single one of them, for everything they’ve really done all winter, but especially here in Winter Storm Fern, to serve our customers and not have an outage and to be safe. And we really are excited.
Again, once the weather breaks, again, we’ve got a lot of Main Miles stacked up, new Main Miles stacked up to get into the ground and add customers. We’re excited about the overall growth and health of our region. And we also, of course, want to thank you for your continued interest and support in RGC Resources. That does conclude our prepared remarks. And if you have any questions, please dial pound, pound one to unmute your line. Pound, pound one to unmute your line. We’ll wait just a few more seconds in case someone wants to ask a question. Pound, pound one. Okay. Well, thank you again for taking your time to participate in our first quarter call. And we certainly look forward to being back together with you in May to discuss the second quarter results. We hope everyone has a safe end of the week. Thank you.
