Nebius Group Q4 2025 Earnings Call - Capacity Sprint: Contracted Power Tops 2GW, Targeting >3GW and $7B-$9B ARR
Summary
Nebius closed 2025 with rapid scale and striking commercial momentum. Q4 revenue was $228 million, ARR exceeded guidance at $1.2 billion, and the core AI cloud business grew at hyperscale speed, with core revenue up 830% year over year. Management says demand continues to outstrip supply, capacity often sells out before it is live, and they are accelerating their build to capture that gap.
The company is raising the bar for 2026: contracted power exceeded 2 gigawatts in early February and management now expects to exceed 3 gigawatts by year-end. Guidance calls for $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion in 2026 revenue, an ARR run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by end-2026, group adjusted EBITDA margin around 40% for 2026, and a heavy CapEx program of $16 billion to $20 billion financed largely from cash, upfront contract receipts, and a mix of debt and asset-backed options.
Key Takeaways
- Q4 revenue $228 million, up 547% year over year and 56% quarter over quarter, with the company in mid-range of guidance.
- Annualized run rate revenue (ARR) for the core AI cloud hit $1.2 billion at year-end, above the high end of prior guidance.
- Core AI cloud revenue grew 830% year over year and 63% quarter over quarter, driving improved operating leverage.
- Nebius says it has sold out capacity repeatedly; customers are often pre-committing capacity before it is live.
- Contracted power exceeded 2.0 gigawatts in early February; management now expects to exceed 3.0 gigawatts of contracted power by year-end 2026.
- Company expects to deliver roughly 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of available/connected data center capacity in 2026, with most new capacity ramping in H2 2026.
- 2026 revenue guidance is $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, while management reiterates an end-2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion.
- CapEx plan of $16 billion to $20 billion for 2026, about 60% financed from existing cash, operations and contract receipts; exploring debt, asset-backed finance, and opportunistic ATM equity.
- Q4 operating cash flow was $834 million, largely driven by upfront payments from long-term agreements; cash and equivalents $3.7 billion at year-end.
- Group adjusted EBITDA inflected positive in Q4; group adjusted EBITDA margin was about 7% in Q4 and management targets roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026.
- EBIT is expected to remain negative in 2026 as Nebius invests in EPUs, R&D and capacity; medium-term EBIT margin target remains 20% to 30%.
- Depreciation schedule updated from four to five years starting Q1 2026, reflecting utilization and market conditions.
- Major strategic contracts: Meta tranches are fully deployed and now in service, contributing near-term revenue; Microsoft first tranche was delivered on schedule and remaining tranches will ramp through 2026, with full run-rate contribution expected in 2027.
- Sales and product signals: average contract duration for new cloud customers rose 50% in 2025; pricing remains strong across GPU families, renewals moving to 12+ months, and Nebius reports being sold out of Hopper-class GPUs.
- Software and ecosystem: 100% attach rate for Nebius AI cloud customers to its software; recent product launches include Token Factory and Aether; acquisition of Tavily adds agentic search and nearly 700,000 developers to the ecosystem.
- Supply chain and build strategy: Nebius has contracted long-lead items for own sites and secured necessary components for Microsoft and Meta deals; preference is to self-develop large projects for better TCO and control, with colocation used to bridge near-term gaps.
- Pipeline and demand outlook: Q1 pipeline trajectory on track to exceed $4 billion; management reports continued strong demand across AI startups, enterprises and hyperscalers.
- Capital allocation and optionality: ATM program remains unused; Nebius cites non-core stakes such as 25% in ClickHouse and holdings in EveryRight as potential future capital sources.
Full Transcript
Conference Moderator: Welcome to Nebius Group’s Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, you can click the Ask a Question tab in the top right of the live stream player. Then just type in your question and click Submit. You can submit questions at any time during the presentation, and the Nebius management team will try and answer as many questions as they can during the Q&A portion of the call. I will now hand over to Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, to start the call.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Thank you, and welcome to Nebius Group’s fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Neil Doshi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Arkady Volozh, Founder and CEO, and our broader management team. Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions as of today. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various factors, including those set forth in today’s earnings press release and in our annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will present both GAAP and certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in today’s earnings press release. The earnings press release and shareholder letter are available on our website at nebius.com. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Arkady.
Arkady Volozh, Founder and CEO, Nebius Group: Thanks, Neil, and thanks to everyone for joining this call. Well, 2025 was a very strong year for us. Our team did an outstanding job scaling capacity and delivering it to customers with speed and reliability. We also made great progress in developing of our own hyperscale AI cloud. But, before going into more detail around our, our 2025 results, I want to take a step back. It’s hard to believe we only launched this company a year and a half ago. At that time, we have built, the foundation of a global AI cloud business, growing at exponential scale. And we have been operating with very high intensity, building and scaling at extraordinary speed. Today, we are already one of the world’s leading and most reliable AI cloud compute providers.
We have attracted a diverse pool of clients, who value the quality, performance, and flexibility of the platform we built from the ground up. We have an amazing team who every day seem to do the impossible, and I know they will continue to do this, to do so. With this foundation, we’re proud of what we have achieved and confident about what we will be delivering. Now, back to 2025. As I said, it was an excellent year. We exceeded our financial targets, and we significantly exceeded our capacity plans, setting the stage for the next phase of scale. Demand remains robust, and our pipeline continues to grow substantially. We sold out of capacity in Q3 and Q4 last year, and we’re already now in Q1 of 2026, also sold out.
Even before we bring capacity online, it’s often, it’s often sold out. As a result, the average contract duration of new cloud customers grew by 50%, and the prices of GPUs didn’t fall, even on previous generations of GPUs, as the industry may have expected. Customers are demanding more compute and increasingly, increasingly sophisticated solutions to run their AI workloads. AI startups are quickly evolving to real enterprise-scale customers, with revenues from their products, resonating with real customers. Their demand quickly grows from hundreds of GPUs to tens of thousands. This is already a range the market saw from the biggest customers last year. We are seeing the same trends in the enterprise, who are utilizing AI for more and more vital business processes. Meanwhile, access to compute remains constrained.
This imbalance creates a favorable environment for us as we secure and deploy more capacity into a robust demand environment. To capture this opportunity, we are accelerating our capacity plans. Just today, we announced nine new data centers across the globe. Last quarter, we said we would secure 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power by the end of the year. We are already at more than 2 gigawatts now in February, which is why we are raising our forecast for 2026 to more than 3 gigawatts. And we are well on track to deliver 800-1 gigawatts of those as available data center capacity, just like as we spoke about last quarter. Capacity is one of two dimensions of our growth. The other is product.
Our main strategic focus is on to scale our core AI cloud business, which is our multi-tenant AI cloud. We will expand our platform both organically and through targeted acquisitions that can enhance and accelerate the development of this platform. We recently launched Token Factory and this is an example, a testament, actually, to our in-house capabilities. And we’re also very excited about our recent acquisition of Tavily, which adds agentic search capabilities to our customers, and also brings almost 700,000 developers to our ecosystem. Based on the strengths in demand and our strong execution, we remain confident in our plans for year ahead. We are reiterating our annualized run rate revenue of $7 billion-$9 billion by the end of 2026.
When we announced this target three months ago, there were questions about our ability to get to this range. Over the last few months, our conviction in this range has become stronger. Why? Because, because we exceeded the high end of our 2025 ARR guidance and showed more than $1.2 billion ARR. Because we already contracted more than 2 gigawatts of capacity and are on track to exceed 3 gigawatts this year. Because we have already delivered all of our capacity for the Meta contract, because we are on track to deliver the capacity for Microsoft through the course of 2026, exactly as planned. And lastly, the demand, demand for our AI cloud continues to be strong. Pricing is strong. We’re seeing more and more customers coming into the platform and committing larger and larger and longer contracts.
Everything we build, we sell. We’re in the very early days of one of the biggest industrial and technological revolutions in history. That’s what we believe. And Nebius is quickly becoming the AI cloud provider of choice. I want to thank again all of our employees for their dedication and hard work, as well as our shareholders for your trust and support, and we will continue to deliver. Well, now I would like to hand the call over to our CFO, Dado Alonso. Dado, please.
Dado Alonso, CFO, Nebius Group: Thank you, Arkady. Indeed, 2025 really was a fantastic year with great execution and delivery. We exceeded the targets we set, outperforming our ARR guidance, and achieved positive EBITDA at the group level. We also raised significant capital to fund our growth during the year. Now, let me provide some color on the results, discuss our financing plans, and then I will conclude with 2026 guidance. In Q4, we delivered group revenue of $228 million, representing year-over-year growth of 547%. Revenue grew 56% from Q3 to Q4. Annualized run rate revenue for the core business stood at $1.2 billion at the end of December, exceeding the high end of our Q3 guidance range of $1.1 billion. The results of our core AI cloud business were even more impressive.
Revenue grew 830% year-over-year and 63% quarter-over-quarter. This was driven by high utilization, strong pricing, and strong execution. As Arkady noted, we sold out our capacity once again in Q4, as demand continued to significantly exceed available capacity. Even as we delivered such strong growth, operating leverage and spending discipline enabled us to achieve notable progress on the bottom line. Group adjusted EBITDA inflected positively in Q4, consistent with our guidance, driven by the strength in our core cloud business, where adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 19% in Q3 to 24%. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the year with $3.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and generated $834 million in operating cash flow in Q4, which was primarily comprised of upfront payments from our long-term agreements.
These early cash flows will continue over the course of the year as we execute against these commitments, providing us with significant visibility into future cash flow. Our cash on hand, projected operating cash flow, and strong balance sheet position us very well to fund our capacity to build out plans for 2026. I will share more detail about our capital plans in just a moment. Now, I will turn to 2026 guidance. As Arkady mentioned, we remain confident in our ability to generate annualized run rate revenue of between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026. For the full year, we expect to achieve between $3 billion and $3.4 billion in revenue.
Starting in Q4, Q2, we expect to begin bringing online some of the new sites we announced today, with the majority of the planned capacity to be deployed in the second half of the year. As of early February, Meta’s capacity was fully deployed, and we are now fully servicing their contract. After delivering the first tranche of our Microsoft commitment on time, we expect to continue to deliver the remaining tranches throughout the year, with the majority expected in the second half. We expect Microsoft to begin contributing to revenue at the full annual run rate in 2027 once we have deployed all of these tranches. On adjusted EBITDA, we expect group adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 40% for 2026.
We expect EBIT to remain at a loss in 2026 as we progress against our capacity expansion plans, deploy EPUs, and invest in AI in R&D that will significantly enhance our technology stack and our future AI product. We believe the return on these investments are attractive and will remain committed to our medium-term EBIT target of 20%-30%, with the potential to go higher. Starting in Q1 2026, we are updating our depreciation schedule from 4 years to 5 years to reflect what we are seeing in the market and in our current utilization commitments. This approach is aligned with accounting-based practices, and we continue to be conservative on this front. Now, turning to CapEx.
In order to capture the large and growing opportunity that we see for the future, we plan to invest in CapEx in the range of $16 billion-$20 billion in 2026. We already have about 60% of the capital needed for this range from our balance sheet, existing operations, and commitments. We evaluate several funding options available to us on a consistent basis, and we’ll deploy two guardrails when we look at capital alternatives. First, we will focus on raising debt relative to our business needs and will be prudent with respect to the cost of capital. Second, we will be mindful about the shareholder dilution if we choose to issue equity. Given our balance sheet and minimal debt, we are fortunate to have many additional options to finance our growing business.
For example, we are currently exploring adding corporate debt and asset-backed financing to our balance sheet. Our at-the-market equity program, which we have not used at all to date, remains an additional alternative for opportunistic capital. In addition, our equity stakes in ClickHouse and other businesses, such as Avride, can also be future sources of capital. We are excited about these holdings, especially as the market recognizes their significant value. As an example, it was recently reported that ClickHouse valuation was approximately $15 billion in the most recent funding round. So the wide array of funding options available to us allows us to fund growth in a way that is balanced, disciplined, and aligned with returns that rather than committing to a single path.
In conclusion, 2025 was a year of strategic progress for Nebius, and we executed with focus and discipline across our business, generating strong momentum as we enter 2026. In the year ahead, we will continue to scale rapidly to capture the meaningful market opportunity in this once-in-a-generation moment in our space. With that, I will turn the call back over to Arkady.
Arkady Volozh, Founder and CEO, Nebius Group: Yeah, before we turn the call over to Q&A, I want to provide one more update. After this earnings call, Neil Doshi, you know, our VP of Investor Relations, is moving into a new strategy function role, and we would like to thank Neil for all his great work in building out our IR function to date. I’m also extremely pleased to welcome Gili Naftalovich, who will be our new VP of Investor Relations. Gili brings with her deep research and strategic finance experience from Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Monday.com, and we’re very excited to have her on board. With that, let’s go to the Q&A.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Right, we are just collecting some questions from the portal, and we will begin Q&A in just a moment. All right. The first question from our investors on the portal is: Nebius is moving quickly to both bring demand online and to build strong foundation for the future capacity. What are, what are you seeing in the market that gives you conviction that the demand for AI will continue to justify these investments? Let’s give that to Arkady.
Arkady Volozh, Founder and CEO, Nebius Group: Well, well, first of all, we all look around and see what’s going on, practically everywhere. How we change our habits in everyday private lives, what happens in our corporations, in our company, for example, how much of workloads are now utilizing AI capabilities during coding? And actually, we now see the whole all the industries actually changing. Look at recent example, again, coding, or look at the movie industry, or look at the research. Whatever you do now, you do it with AI. But again, these are just general notions, but our conviction is mostly based on what we’re seeing directly in our business. We see directly signals in all sectors of our business.
First of all, in the large accounts, all large clients are talking to us, and not only to us, but the whole market, about expanding and renting more capacity, more GPUs, because their AI businesses are growing. There are these ongoing conversations actually that will lead to more contracts everywhere. But we are, as you know, much more focused on our AI cloud business. And in AI cloud, we have these two major sectors, AI startups and enterprise, and look at AI native customers. What happened to them in 2025? Some startups disappeared, but some of them are becoming real companies, real enterprises of the future, and they started getting traction.
Their products became more and more used by their customers, and they’re scaling quickly, scaling with real revenues, real demand. What we see such customers, such companies who used to order hundreds of GPUs, thousands of GPUs, now they’re ordering tens of thousands of GPUs, and this is actually a magnitude of what we saw in the largest consumers last year. Frontier models were ordering tens of thousands of GPUs just a year, two years ago. Now, it’s yesterday’s startups at this level. Again, this is real business. These are real customers of them, and they’re paying real revenues. So AI traction is visible.
There’s a lot of customers from the sector, starting with Cuckoo, Courser or Rodo, Higgsfield, Further Room, Genes, Molecular, different sectors, and they all have their first traction, and they’re becoming, as we speak, becoming real, real companies. Actually, it’s the future enterprises. And on the other hand, there is enterprise clients who in, involve more and who are actually switching most of their everyday business process to AI and generate new profits through that AI implementations. We see the growing number of such customers, growing contracts from each of such a customer. The number of GPUs is growing, the duration of the contracts is growing. As I said, the average duration for new customers is grew 50% last year.
So, from the signals we see from all the sectors of the market, from big clients, hyperscale labs, from AI startups becoming enterprise clients, for enterprise going AI, everywhere, we see positive signals, and we just need to build more for them, more data centers, more tools. And if we could build faster, yeah, and even more than we have today, we would do it. So we’re building because it’s clear growth.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Arkady. Next question is from Josh Baer, from Morgan Stanley, who asks about our CapEx, financing plans. You know, especially now that we have $16-$18 billion--$16-$20 billion of CapEx guidance out there, you know, how are we thinking through to meet these expectations for CapEx? Ofir?
Ofir Nev, COO and Board Member, Nebius Group: Hi. I’m Ofir Nev, the COO and board member of Nebius. Usually, I’m not participating in these calls, but given the importance of this question, both for our business and as well as to the investor community, I will take this one. Basically, this question has two parts. First, what is the optimal capital expenditure for our business in 2026? And second, how is this CapEx going to be financed? And obviously, these questions are connected or related. So let us start actually with the second question or the second part. How are we going to finance the CapEx? So obviously, we will first finance it from our cash flows. We have our cash, cash on hand. We have cash that is generated from our core business.
But most importantly, I would say, we have significant amount of cash that we received, and we will continue to receive in 2026 from the favorable terms of our long-term contracts. We are talking about significant amount of cash. This cash flows will actually finance the majority, actually around 60%, maybe even more, of all of our CapEx needs in 2026. So how are we going to finance the remaining amount, the rest? So, as we all know, we have a very healthy balance sheet. By the way, not by coincidence, because we are working very hard to have a very prudent, disciplined, healthy balance sheet. As of today, we don’t have any corporate level debt. We don’t have any asset-backed financing, even though we have multi-billion-dollar, revenues from long-term contracts.
We don’t have any bank revolver, and we didn’t have it to date by choice. But moving into 2026, and as we all know, an optimal capital structure in our business should include also debt. This should obviously be changed, and we plan, during 2026, to use some of the tools that I mentioned in order to move, toward a more optimal capital structure. So having said all that, from the financing point of view, we believe that the $16 billion-$20 billion CapEx makes a ton of sense, and we will be able to finance it while keeping a very healthy, disciplined balance sheet. But moving to the first part, the first question, what should be our, optimal CapEx for 2026?
I would mention, actually, Arkady said it time and again, that given that we are fully vertically integrated company, our CapEx is basically divided into three parts. Less than 1% is used for securing power, and given the importance of power to our business, and given the importance of securing power for our future hypergrowth, we are moving full force ahead in order to secure as much power as possible, given the relatively low cost of it. And I think that on this call, it was mentioned that we already secured significant amount of power, and we will continue to do so. The second part of the CapEx, building the data center. This is approximately 20% of the total CapEx, and we invested in building data centers.
We invested this amount, and it turned out as we expected, that it became one of the best investments that we made. Why? Because when we have data centers ready, or almost ready, where we can deploy GPUs in a very short period of time, we can sell this capacity in very attractive and favorable terms. We have done so to date, and we plan to do it also in the future. We see the demand, we see the interest. We have a clear visibility on the demand for the second half of 2026 and for 2027, both from our cloud clients as well as from AI labs and hyperscalers.
And we are positive that these investments, with the interest that we are getting from all these players, will play out again, very beneficial for our company, as it done so in 2025. The remaining part of the CapEx is obviously to deploy the GPUs. Again, this is a significant part of the CapEx, and the beauty is that we deploy the GPUs in a short time period when we have a great visibility about the demand, and about the prices, and about our margins, and about... And we are very happy, and we don’t view it as a very risky place to be. So having said all that, we believe that the $16 billion-$20 billion CapEx for 2026 makes the most sense for us.
First of all, it is based on our visibility on the demand for 2026, 2027. It’s based on the interest that we are getting from various players, both in our cloud platform and the AI labs and the hyperscalers. It will enable us to meet our $7-$9 billion ARR in 2026, but more importantly, it will also put the foundation for our hypergrowth in 2027 and beyond. But speaking about CapEx and investments, I think to address two additional points. One is ATM. As you all know, we launched our ATM program last quarter. As of today, we didn’t use it at all. Actually, we don’t have any concrete plans to use it also in the near future.
However, it’s another tool in our toolbox that will enable us to use it when it will make the most sense for our business as well as our shareholders. This is another tool that will enable us to keep a prudent, balanced, disciplined balance sheet. Another point that I think worth mentioning is obviously our non-core businesses. We are fortunate enough to have our 25% stake in ClickHouse and our ownership in EveryRight. This non-core businesses, these stakes are worth many billions of dollars as of today. This is great, but it’s, but it’s less interesting by itself. Most importantly, we truly believe that these stakes will significantly increase in the midterm. When they will do so, they will enable us to continue growing our business in an hyper-based mode.
As we plan 2027 and beyond, while using this capital and continue keeping a very disciplined balance sheet. We’re really happy with this potential capital injections for the future. Together, I think that together provide an overview on the CapEx, the needs, and the ways to finance it.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: That was very helpful, Ofir. Thank you. All right, next question comes from Alex Platt, D.A. Davidson. "Can you help us bridge to not only the 800 MW-1 GW of connected power guidance, but now to the 3 GW of contracted power guidance by year-end?" Andrey?
Andrey, Executive (likely CTO or Infrastructure Lead), Nebius Group: Yeah. Thanks, Neil. Hello, everyone. So what we can see now is we are accelerating the build-out and deployment of the capacity in 2026 greatly, and we expect that the acceleration will continue in 2027 and beyond that. So what we are doing is we are, as Ofir mentioned, we are doing the investments and building the foundation for the 2027 and for the further years. We are well on track of achieving our goals that we mentioned about 2026 of this 800-1 gigawatt goal, around, around year-end. And we do, we do that by launching a lot of sites with a mix of smaller and larger projects, and some of our bigger projects starting to come online in the end of this year.
In addition to that, in addition to the sites that we mentioned today, we have multiple ongoing projects, and we expect that some of these additional sites may materialize this year. So basically, we expect that the collocations will help us grow faster, starting in Q2 this year and ramping throughout the year. Our own projects, which are substantial in size, will really start to ramp up in 2027 and beyond, and that relates directly to the contracted power.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Andrey. Andrey, maybe just staying with you. Andrew Beale from Arete is asking about an update on the New Jersey data center site.
Andrey, Executive (likely CTO or Infrastructure Lead), Nebius Group: Yeah, with the New Jersey, we are very pleased with the progress there. We delivered the first tranche to the Microsoft on time, and we are well on track to deliver the remaining commitments on time as well. We believe that our partners secured the components in the supply chain, and they’re working extremely hard to get everything online. Well, we also have some safety margin buffer times in our projects. And, well, all projects can have some fluctuation, but we have built our plans with a large margin of safety, and we have a high confidence of executing this.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thanks, Andrey. All right. Looks like we have a question from Alex Duval from Goldman Sachs. Looks like Nebius came in light on revenue versus consensus for Q4, but ARR was ahead of expectations. So which is the more meaningful metric, and are there any timing considerations? And then just more broadly, you know, lumping this with the ARR question, you know, can you help us understand the difference between ARR guidance of $7 billion-$9 billion and the revenue guide for 2026? So, Dado, maybe you can take this.
Dado Alonso, CFO, Nebius Group: Thanks. Let me take it one by one. On the first question, of course, we were very pleased with our ARR of $1.2 billion, which exceeded our ARR guide. Our revenue came in the middle of our guidance, which actually was what we anticipated. Look, as we are in a hyper-growth phase, ARR is the meta metric. Now, on the next question around the difference between ARR and revenue guidance, let me say that first and foremost, at Nebius, we are really taking a prudent approach to our revenue guidance as we communicated. In 2026, our guidance is $3-$3.4 billion in revenue. The difference between ARR and revenue is logical.
Our revenues and ARR reflect the deployment schedule of our capacity throughout the year, with the majority of this capacity being installed in the second half of the year, as Andrey mentioned. We need also to consider that our largest enterprise partnerships are also still ramping, so the revenue guide simply reflects the ramp-up in capacity coming online.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Dado. Question from Alex Platt, from D.A. Davidson: How should we think about your progress against the $7 billion-$9 billion ARR guide? And, are you really dependent on the large hyperscalers to get to that range? Mark, why don’t you take this?
Mark, Executive (likely Chief Commercial Officer), Nebius Group: Thank you, Alex. First of all, let me clarify. Our 2026 ARR target is not dependent on any new mega deals. As we bring on our planned additional capacity, combined with the already strong pipeline and our go-to-market plans, we are very confident in our ability to deliver our 2026 ARR target. Our continued success with AI natives and the early progress we’ve seen with ISVs and enterprises set the foundation for capturing the market this year. Based on the traction we are experiencing and our extensive research on our total market opportunity, we are leaning into the verticals we’ve already laid out: healthcare, life sciences, media and entertainment, physical AI, and retail, which give us ample runway to capture share and grow our business.
While we are happy to service large strategic customers like hyperscalers, we will remain opportunistic with such large deals as we look to balance the opportunity with the long-term positioning we plan to achieve with our AI cloud.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Mark. Now, let’s take a question from the portal. Can you provide an update on where you stand as it pertains to the delivery schedule with Microsoft and Meta? And remind us again about how those two contracts layer in throughout the year. Maybe on the first part, we’ll have Andrey, and then, Dado, you can take the second part on the contract layering.
Andrey, Executive (likely CTO or Infrastructure Lead), Nebius Group: Yeah. Thanks, Neil. As I mentioned earlier, the first tranche to Microsoft was delivered according to the plan in November, and the remaining capacity is on schedule, ongoing. All of the remaining tranches will be delivered throughout the whole 2026, and more than half of them will land during the second half of the year. About Meta, earlier in this month, we delivered both contracted tranches to Meta on time, and we just now fully in servicing stage. Dado, can you comment the financials?
Dado Alonso, CFO, Nebius Group: Of course. Thank you, Andrey. The deployments in Meta, as Andrey just mentioned, went live early February. As such, we expect to recognize 12 months of revenue for the first tranche and roughly 11 months for our second tranche. As for the Microsoft deal, we expect revenue to ramp over the course of the year in line with our plans to deliver the capacity tranches, which, as Andrey mentioned, also, will happen throughout the year, with the majority expected in the second half. So Microsoft deal will begin to deliver a full year revenue starting in 2027. And as we execute on these commitments, we expect them to contribute positively to our medium-term EBIT margin target of 20%-30%.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thanks, Dado. Another question from the portal. What drove the upside in the December 2025 ARR? And as you look into Q1, what are the demand trends that you’re seeing in the market today? Mark, why don’t you take this?
Mark, Executive (likely Chief Commercial Officer), Nebius Group: Certainly. The upside in December ARR came from a solid execution and strong pricing and utilization. We continue to make great progress in adding new logos and expanding with existing customers. On the second point. We are seeing very strong pricing across all families of GPUs, and we are at full utilization as we continue to sell out all available capacity. On the Q1 demand, it remains extremely robust, and we are seeing the same trends that we shared in 2H 2025 carrying into 2026. The three things that give me tremendous confidence and excitement as we enter 2026 are continued pipeline growth, positive deal trends, and the progress we’re making with our vertical strategy.
The pipeline creation trajectory in Q1 is on track to exceed $4 billion, and as we expand our available capacity and add sales coverage, we expect it to continue to increase. In terms of deal trends, they’re all moving in the right direction. Deal terms are getting longer, and average deal sizes are increasing. In Q4, we saw nearly twice as many transactions completed for over 12 months in duration over what we succeeded with in Q3, while average selling prices increased by more than 50%. As an example, we are sold out of hoppers, and those that are coming up for renewal, often off of short reserve agreements, are getting renewed at 12 months or longer, while we’re actually seeing pricing nudging up.
Lastly, we’re focusing on customers with premium workloads and use cases, which is resulting in superior terms, including increasing those who are willing to prepay for securing future capacity.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thanks, Mark. We have another question from the portal: There are headlines of data center equipment shortages in the market. How is Nebius handling this situation, ensuring access to these products? And do you expect it to have any impact on your deployment? I think, Andrey, this would be for you.
Andrey, Executive (likely CTO or Infrastructure Lead), Nebius Group: Yeah. Thanks, Neil. On the data center delays, well, generally, building the data centers is a quite complex task, and no one can get away from all of the risks, but I think we are in a quite good shape of managing this risk. As you saw today, we are well ahead of our contracted power, and we are developing nine contracted sites we announced today. The main idea, the main strategy is to have the portfolio of sites, so we are not dependent on any specific single data center project to achieve our guidances and deliver our plan. It’s pretty important to understand our differentiation. We are full stack cloud, allowing us to enjoy the flexibility that it provides, that we are not dependent on any sites.
We can move the loads in between, we can provide it from a, from a different locations. We just operating to ensure that we have enough, capacity. And the second one is, we already contracted the majority of our long lead items around our own sites, to be sure that, to ensure, the capacity deployment beyond 2026, as well. And the second part of the shortages is the memory and storage. The, first important point is our largest deals with, Microsoft and Meta. We were able to secure the necessary components last year for the full scope of those contracts. And, we secured it in second half of 2025 before any price increase.
For the remaining, we are confident in our supply chain to get the parts we needed to continue to, well, to continue to deliver the capacity.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Andrey, maybe sticking with you, a few of our analysts are asking, you know, with the announced to 9 new sites for data centers that are going to be a mix of owned and colocation, how do you evaluate when you want to buy versus lease, and how do you expect this mix to shift longer term?
Andrey, Executive (likely CTO or Infrastructure Lead), Nebius Group: I think we discussed it quite a few times. So generally, we are focused on bringing most of our largest projects as a self-developed projects. There are three main reasons. First, we get much better total cost of ownership with this. We have much more control over the execution of the project because we have expertise and experience of building our own sites. We also can achieve greater efficiency and scale because generally, we tailor the design specifically for what we need and for our technical requirements. But this takes time and, well, we use leases and partnerships to fill the gaps before we are at a full speed with our own one.
So just to sum up, the preference is to develop the infrastructure ourselves, but again, we still need the partners and leases occasionally to support the growth.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Andrey.... Next question from Josh Baer, Morgan Stanley. It’s really around the software stack. What are the most common software tools that your broader customer base, startups and large enterprises, are using and paying for from your AI cloud? And what proportion of your customers utilize your software and services in addition to your compute capacity? And then any color on just how much ARR comes from the software stack today. Mark, why don’t you take this?
Mark, Executive (likely Chief Commercial Officer), Nebius Group: Certainly. Thanks, Josh, for the question. As I think you know, our AI cloud is purpose-built for AI and is battle-tested with our AI customer base. At this stage, 100% of our AI cloud customers are utilizing our AI cloud software, obviously. So we have a 100% attach rate. We’re very excited, by the way, about the new products that we’ve launched, like Token Factory and the Aether releases, which have opened up TAM and give us an opportunity to expand into enterprise. Our new acquisition of Tavily also extends our platform capabilities by providing agentic search for AI developers, creating more routes into accounts.
Should also mention that we continue to see demand for embedded storage from customers across key verticals, including physical AI, media and entertainment, and healthcare and life sciences. As a result, we are creating solutions that are vertically specific to meet the demands of these customers. We’re really in the early stages of our monetization journey, but our software and services make our platform sticky, which enables us to charge more on a relative per GPU hour. We are exploring other monetization models, including consumption-based, you know, such as per-token pricing with Token Factory. So Josh, stay tuned for more on monetization in the future.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thanks, Mark. Let’s... Another question from Alex Duval from Goldman Sachs. It’s really on the 40% EBITDA margin target that we gave. What, what gives us confidence in that? Dado, can you take this one?
Dado Alonso, CFO, Nebius Group: Sure. Thanks for the question, Alex. Let me bring the bigger picture. Nebius is scaling, and as we do, so will our margins. Now, let’s come to adjusted EBITDA margin guidance. In Q4, the group achieved adjusted EBITDA margin of 7%, and for 2026, we are expecting to reach 40%. We see a tremendous demand for our AI cloud business, and we are investing appropriately to serve this demand. As we reported, well, the margin of the core AI cloud business is actually significantly higher than the group. And as we scale the AI business, most of our revenue and margin will continue to be driven by the core AI business. So we expect, of course, the other businesses to still operate at EBITDA loss in 2026, but their contribution to EBITDA will be smaller and smaller.
The guidance of 40% adjusted EBITDA margin reflects the current expansion state of the business.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Dado. We have a few of our analysts, including James Kisner from Water Tower Research, asking about Tavily. What is the strategic rationale behind Tavily? How is this complementary to your existing offering, and really, is there a lot of demand for this product from your cloud customers? Roman, why don’t you take this?
Roman, Executive, Nebius Group: Yeah, thank you for the question. I was afraid we will not come to it. It’s quite exciting event for us, and we super excited to announce our first M&A deal with the acquisition of Tavily, and welcome Tavily team and Tavily customers in Nebius’s family. Tavily is a agentic search company. They connect AI agents to the web, and it’s very much fits in our strategy to become and to be the platform where all the AI developers from startups and enterprises building their AI applications and agents. Tavily got quite a significant progress. They already serve many Fortune 500 customers, and they’ve got great adoption and developer community and loved by developers.
We will continue to evaluate for potential acquisitions of the companies that can deepen customer engagement, stickiness, and increase our lifetime value and strengthen our positions as a full-stack AI cloud provider. And this game is such large that we obviously will not build everything ourselves. We will be in the strategic opportunities, and we’ll be in the strategic partnerships moving forward, looking for companies and partners that have got a great product, great developer experience, and similar to ours DNA to build a platform that will be loved by AI developers long term.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Roma. You know, we have another question just on capital allocation and M&A, you know, in terms of, like, build versus buy. Like Nehal Chokshi is asking this from Northland. So Arkady, when, when you’re thinking about capital allocation, especially, you know, whether it’s investing in, in capacity or doing M&A, how do you, how do you think about this?
Arkady Volozh, Founder and CEO, Nebius Group: Again, what we’re building here, we’re building one of the largest platforms for AI developers to build their applications. The largest platform means two dimensions: the scale and functionality product. And we could allocate capital between these two dimensions. We need to build scale, that’s why we need to build all these data centers and buy all those hundreds of thousands of GPUs. And we need to build a product, and we build this product both organically, internally, by our own developers. But we will never cover everything, so we go into acquisitions, and we spend some capital to acquisitions as well, to enhance our product, to get more talent, and ultimately, to develop more and faster. And Tavily is a perfect example of such an acquisition. Hopefully, not the last one.
Neil Doshi, VP, Head of Investor Relations, Nebius Group: Great. Thank you, Arkady. I think we’re at the top of the hour, so thank you everyone for joining our fourth quarter 2021 earnings call. Next quarter, Gili will be leading the earnings process. Thank you, everyone.