MP Materials Q4 2025 Earnings Call - NdPr Production Doubled, Magnets at Commercial Scale and 10X Site Set

Martin Sheehan, Head of Investor Relations, MP Materials: assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today’s presentation, earnings release, and in our SEC filings. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today’s earnings release and the appendix to today’s slide presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means-

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Hello, welcome to the MP Materials Q4 earnings call. We ask that you please hold all questions until the completion of the formal remarks, at which time you’ll be given instructions for the question and answer session. Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Martin Sheehan, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Sheehan, you may begin.

Martin Sheehan, Head of Investor Relations, MP Materials: Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the MP Materials fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. With me today from MP Materials are Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, today’s discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today’s presentation, earnings release, and in our SEC filings. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today’s earnings release and the appendix to today’s slide presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA and tons means metric tons.

Finally, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Jim. Jim?

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Thank you, Martin, and thanks everyone for joining this afternoon. 2025 was a landmark year for MP Materials. From our transformational partnerships with the Department of War and Apple, to accelerating growth across our businesses and producing magnets at Independence on commercial scale equipment, we are hitting our stride as America’s champion and a vertically integrated global leader in rare earth magnetics. Let’s turn to slide 4. I’ll start with the materials segment and production at Mountain Pass. In 2025, we doubled our NdPr oxide output to 2,599 metric tons. Importantly, we exited the year at an annualized run rate of nearly 4,000 metric tons of separated NdPr oxide. Michael will discuss the latest operational achievements and what we are seeing in Q1 in more detail shortly.

As production increased, total oxide sales volumes rose 75% to nearly 2,000 metric tons for the year. This ramp in production and sales comes at an especially favorable time, given that the price protection agreement is now in effect and also that NdPr pricing has climbed significantly over the past several weeks. Customer engagement is strengthening materially. I will come back to that in a moment. We also exceeded 50,000 metric tons of REO produced in 2025, another record annual performance. We believe we remain the world’s second-largest producer of total REO, underscoring the exceptional quality of the Mountain Pass asset. As upstream and midstream production expands, demand for NdPr oxide remains robust. This strength was reinforced by the recent signing of a significant long-term NdPr offtake agreement with a new strategic customer, one of America’s leading technology and industrial companies.

We now have direct strategic agreements with four of the world’s leading manufacturers across automotive, consumer electronics, and physical AI. These partnerships allow us to scale our NdPr business today with a clear pathway to downstream magnetics growth over time. We continue to advance our heavy rare earth separation circuit and remain on track to begin commissioning mid-year. As a result, we expect to produce separated heavy rare earths, specifically dysprosium and terbium, late this year. Finally, within the material segment, higher realized prices, PPA benefits, and continued cost reductions drove a strong return to profitability, generating $40.3 million of adjusted segment EBITDA in the quarter. Turning to magnetics, we achieved our target of producing our first magnets on commercial scale equipment at our Independence facility late last year and are now optimizing the startup of the production systems.

We are beginning qualification of the commercial processes with our foundational customer and expect initial deliveries and revenue in the second half of the year. At the same time, expansion of both recycling and magnet capacity is underway, which resulted in an additional $32 million prepayment from Apple earned in the fourth quarter and received earlier this month. Another significant milestone this month was the selection of Northlake, Texas, as the site for our new 10X facility. We secured more than $200 million in incentives and grants to support the build out. We expect to break ground imminently with engineering and long lead equipment procurement already well underway. In alignment with the DoW, we are advancing this project with urgency and disciplined execution. Ryan will outline our expected 2026 investment profile as we accelerate the 10X build out.

Production of precursor magnetics products, specifically NdPr metal, continued to advance. We set quarterly records for both production and sales volumes while improving yields, enabling us to sustain strong margins. As a result, the magnetics segment generated $8.4 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, bringing full year magnetics EBITDA to $26.4 million. Behind the scenes, our magnetics team continues to execute at a high level, not only in process optimization, but in the development of proprietary intellectual property. As one example, our technical team has materially advanced our grain boundary diffusion capabilities, resulting in a magnet formulation and production process that uses approximately 60% less heavy rare earth content than originally anticipated, while still meeting the demanding specifications required for high performance, high temperature EV grade magnets.

Given that our original assumptions were already at the low end of industry norms, this represents a meaningful technical achievement. Reductions of this magnitude reflect the strength of our engineering bench and the discipline of our execution. They also enhance our competitive position. Heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium primarily enhance coercivity, improving resistance to demagnetization at elevated temperatures. They do not increase magnetic strength or torque density, and in higher concentrations can even reduce energy product. In many physical AI and humanoid robotics applications, operating temperatures are significantly lower than in EV traction motors, meaning performance is driven more by magnet design, light rare earth optimization, and motor architecture than by heavy rare earth content. As magnet technology advances and adoption grows, particularly in physical AI, performance and value creation increasingly centers on NdPr.

Accordingly, we expect long term demand growth and pricing strength for NdPr to far outpace that of dysprosium and terbium. With that, let me turn it over to Ryan. Ryan?

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: Thanks, Jim. Turning to slide 5, we present our consolidated financial results for the year. On the left, revenue increased 10% year-over-year, driven primarily by the ramp up of oxide sales within the material segment, as well as initial precursor product sales in the magnetic segment, which were not present in 2024. We also highlight the contribution from the price protection agreement or PPA income, which totaled $51 million in the quarter. When combined with reported revenue, this effectively reflects realization of the full $110 per unit purchase price floor for sold products, along with a strong contribution from stockpiled inventory given the pricing environment in the quarter. In the center of the slide, the combination of earned PPA income and profitable magnetic precursor product sales drove a meaningful improvement in adjusted EBITDA relative to 2024.

The resulting increase in adjusted EBITDA was the primary contributor to the year-over-year improvement in adjusted diluted earnings per share. Turning to slide six, we present the annual operating metrics for the material segment, with upstream key performance indicators on the left and midstream KPIs on the right. As Jim noted earlier, upstream performance was particularly strong, with another record year of production of more than 50,000 metric tons of REO and concentrate, a 12% increase compared to 2024. Please note that following the elimination of third-party concentrate sales in mid 2025, we will no longer report upstream sales volumes or realized pricing in future periods. On the right side of the slide, you can see the continued ramp up of NdPr oxide production, which more than doubled year over year to approximately 2,599 metric tons.

This increase in production drove a 75% year-over-year increase in NdPr oxide sales volumes to just under 2,000 metric tons. With implementation of the price protection agreement, we view the realized price metric as less meaningful for investors. Note that we provide both NdPr oxide revenue and sales volumes, which allow you to readily calculate an implied realized price by dividing revenue by volume. Lastly, for the year, turning to slide 7, we present segment level financial results with the material segment shown on the left and the magnetic segment on the right. Within the material segment, revenue declined year-over-year, primarily reflecting the cessation of concentrate sales to third parties. This was partially offset by a 75% increase in NdPr oxide sales volumes.

Despite the decline in reported revenue, the combination of PPA income and improving unit economics on NdPr oxide sales more than offset the elimination of concentrate sales. As a result, 2025 segment adjusted EBITDA for materials improved meaningfully year-over-year. On the right side of the slide, following the commencement of magnetic precursor product sales in early 2025, the magnetic segment generated $66.9 million of revenue and $26.4 million of adjusted EBITDA for the year. Turning to Slide 8 and our quarterly consolidated performance, year-over-year revenue declined modestly, reflecting the cessation of third-party concentrate sales. This was partially offset by continued growth in NdPr oxide sales and the ramp-up of magnetic precursor product sales.

As in prior slides, when PPA income is included, the combined figure provides a representative view of revenue that would have been realized at the $110 per kilogram price floor, along with the contribution from stockpiled, contained NdPr. In the center of the slide, adjusted EBITDA improved significantly year-over-year, driven primarily by the improved NdPr economics. The improvement in adjusted EBITDA was also the principal contributor to the increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share for the quarter. Turning to Slide 9, in the materials segment operating metrics, concentrate production totaled 12,080 metric tons, approximately 600 metric tons higher than the prior year period. Sequentially, it is important to note that the fourth quarter of both 2024 and 2025 included planned maintenance turnarounds for the plant, and as a result, production in those quarters is typically lower sequentially.

On the right side of the slide, NdPr oxide production increased 74% year-over-year, driven by continued plant optimization and debottlenecking. Volumes were roughly in line with the third quarter, again, reflecting the downtime of the October maintenance shutdown, followed by the acceleration of production volumes as expected. Michael will provide additional color on our quarterly performance, along with his expectations for first quarter production and the anticipated timing of achieving our targeted steady-state production rate of approximately 1,500 metric tons per quarter. We are very pleased with the team’s progress on these debottlenecking initiatives. As we discussed last quarter, we have been experiencing a modestly extended lag between production and sales, which generally equates to having approximately 1 quarter of production in the channel. As our production has grown, we’ve seen this inventory in the channel also grow in line.

This reflects the continued ramp-up of metal production in Southeast Asia, including the deliberate buildup of on-site inventory required to support continuous 24-hour operations at various partners. As a reminder, the metallization process operates at extremely high temperatures, exceeding 1,000 degrees Celsius, and maintaining uninterrupted electrolysis is critical to achieving high yields and low unit costs. As a result, building additional inventory is a necessary and intentional step in efficiently scaling production. Looking ahead, we expect this lag between production and sales to narrow and improve slightly, driven by the ongoing ramp of metallization capacity, as well as the incremental demand we have seen for oxide, including significant volumes from the new oxide contract that Jim mentioned earlier. With improving prices and our continued sales and metallization progress, we should see a slightly quicker turn of production levels into sales in Q1.

We expect a modest amount of these sales to be intercompany to the magnetic segment, resulting in some revenue and EBITDA eliminations at the corporate level, similar to Q4. Turning to Slide 10, we present our quarterly segment financial results. On the left, materials segment revenue declined year-over-year, reflecting the elimination of third-party concentrate sales. This was partially offset by higher sales volumes and stronger pricing for NdPr oxide and metal products. Consistent with the consolidated results, the improved NdPr unit economics, underpinned by PPA income, was the primary driver of both the year-over-year and sequential improvement in materials segment adjusted EBITDA. On the right of the slide, the magnetic segment delivered record production and sales volumes during the quarter. Revenue and segment-adjusted EBITDA declined slightly sequentially, which actually reflects improved yields and cost efficiencies, as Jim Litinsky discussed earlier.

Before handing the call off to Michael, I did want to go through a few items with you, starting with pricing. As a reminder, we have several different contract structures, including arrangements that are based on trailing average pricing. As a result, when market pricing increases rapidly, the benefit does not immediately flow through to reported revenue, usually manifesting with about a 1 quarter to a 1 quarter and a half lag. Importantly, for NdPr products that are sold, we generally earn the PPA based on average contract pricing. We will see the delta between our contract pricing and the price floor generally recognized in the PPA income line in Q1. It is important to highlight, however, that PPA payments for stockpiled NdPr are calculated based on market pricing without a lag.

As we enter the first quarter and market pricing quickly approached the $110 per kilogram level, we will elect not to take PPA payments on certain stockpiled NdPr materials. As a reminder, collecting PPA is at our discretion, so depending on pricing, we will always have the option to hold concentrate and/or refined product inventory and earn PPA payments on those at a later date. Turning to magnetics, you will see on the balance sheet that we have approximately $74 million of deferred revenue recorded within current liabilities. We expect this deferred revenue to be recognized over the next four quarters at EBITDA margins, broadly consistent with what you saw in the fourth quarter. As we approach initial magnet deliveries in the second half of the year, we will provide additional details on our expectations for incremental revenue and margin contribution from magnet production.

Needless to say, we are incredibly pleased with the progress our magnets team has made in meeting our customer obligations. Turning to the balance sheet, our significant progress in Q4 resulted in a material expansion of our other receivables balance to over $131 million, reflecting cash that we have received in Q1 or will receive later this year, including over $70 million from the U.S. government from tax credits and PPA payments, and the $32 million progress payment related to our engagement with Apple. It relates to investment, as we begin construction of the 10X facility and advance the expansion of Independence, recycling initiatives, and heavy rare separations, we expect total capital expenditures to be in the range of $500 million-$600 million in 2026.

The vast majority of which reflects accelerated 10X investment and other growth initiatives. We believe our strong liquidity position, with more than $1.8 billion of cash on hand, together with future cash flow from operations, provides ample capital to execute on these initiatives. Operating cash flow growth will be driven by recent improvements in pricing, the downside protection provided by the PPA, continued growth in NdPr oxide sales, and ongoing improvements in unit costs. Collectively, this positions us well to fully fund these significant value-enhancing projects while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Finally, given the additional complexity associated with the Department of War contract, we encourage investors to review our Form 10-K filed today, particularly the financial statement footnotes. With that, I’ll turn it over to Michael. Michael?

Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer, MP Materials: Thank you, Ryan. Turning to Slide 11, this shows some of the major intermediate product steps at Mountain Pass and Independence on the way to producing our finished magnets. Moving to our operations, Q4 capped off a monumental year with very satisfying performance, as both Mountain Pass and Independence achieved significant production milestones. At Mountain Pass, we had a solid quarter of concentrate production and another strong quarter of NdPr oxide production. As planned, at Independence, we began producing magnets at commercial scale, starting with raw material that was mined and processed at Mountain Pass and metalized and turned into magnets in Texas. The planned October outage impacted production in upstream and midstream operations.

As I previewed on our last call, certain additional required maintenance and some rework resulted in an extended return to normal production and more product diverted to concentrate versus the refinery in the second half of October. Mountain Pass exited the quarter with strong momentum, with December achieving record NdPr oxide production at a nearly 4,000 metric ton annualized run rate. We continued to see improved uptime in nearly all circuits and are focused on increasing throughput. In the course of this, we have identified and are addressing some expected and some unexpected bottlenecks. There are no showstoppers, and we expect to overcome these issues steadily throughout 2026.

Reiterating what I said last quarter, I expect over 20% sequential production growth in Q1, somewhat slower sequential growth for the subsequent two quarters, followed by a re-acceleration towards the end of the year, exiting 2026, approaching our target of 500 tons per month of NdPr oxide production or a 6,000 metric ton annualized run rate. As usual, the timing of scheduled maintenance outages, project tie-ins, and other upgrades could impact the exact cadence. At the same time, Mountain Pass continues to prepare for future growth. Construction of our heavy rare earth separation circuits dramatically accelerated in the quarter. Remaining work is largely in piping, electrical, instrumentation, and process automation scopes. We remain on pace to start commissioning and charging the circuits in the middle of the year.

We are also wrapping up restoration and enhancements to our idled chloralkali facility, with the first train expected to begin commissioning in the second quarter. We have already begun pre-commissioning and checkouts of parts of the brine treatment systems. Since the July 2025 agreement signing, our Mountain Pass team has had highly productive and interactive engagement with Apple on the recycling effort. We have finalized process design and are excited to start the next stage of engineering. In the fourth quarter, our team at Independence grew rapidly while materially deepening its technical expertise. We successfully linked the poles of our integrated magnet offering by commissioning the complete oxide to finish magnet production process. We are now producing on-spec, high-grade magnets on commercial scale equipment from oxides produced at Mountain Pass.

To be clear, we have a long and challenging year ahead of us as we work to troubleshoot, optimize, troubleshoot, ramp, and expand magnet production. However, we are off to a great start. I am extremely proud of our team. During the fourth quarter, we rapidly advanced procurement and design for the expansion of the Independence facility to support our partnership with Apple. As Jim and Ryan mentioned, the capital projects, operations, and engineering teams are also pushing forward the 10X development according to the aggressive schedule we outlined. In Q4, alloy flake production volume and quality improved dramatically. We also commissioned additional powder production, pressing, sintering, GBD, and finishing equipment. We are completing the commissioning required to commence the formal production part approval process or PPAP qualification with GM. We expect this to enable commercial sales of magnets to begin in the second half of this year.

While the physical process will be locked, our progress and improvements will continue. At the same time, we are working with an expanding list of potential customers on prototype grades and magnets for both Independence and 10X. I would like to thank our teams for their hard, unwavering effort over the past year. With the foundation and momentum we have built, I am looking forward to another year of impressive execution and new milestones in 2026. With that, I will turn it back to Jim.

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Thank you, Michael. We move beyond the quarter, it is worth stepping back to consider the broader environment in which we are operating. Over the past several years, investors have focused on the rapid build-out of AI infrastructure, data centers, GPUs, and large language models. That digital infrastructure layer is now scaling rapidly, and competitive intensity across the ecosystem is increasing. At the same time, across Wall Street, we are beginning to see something new, real concern about disruption. AI is not only a growth driver, it is a deflationary force. Entire categories of software and services are now facing uncertainty around pricing power, competitive modes, and ultimately terminal value. In an AI-accelerated world, many business models are being repriced, and in some cases, structurally impaired. History suggests that foundational technologies create value in layers. The rise of electricity did not simply power existing systems.

It reorganized the physical economy and enabled entirely new industries. AI is likely to follow a similar path. The next phase of AI is physical. Intelligence is moving from the data centers to the edge into robotics, advanced manufacturing, autonomous systems, defense platforms, and electrified mobility. When intelligence becomes embodied, it requires actuation and motion. Motion requires magnets. Rare earth magnetics are not an application layer vulnerable to algorithmic substitution. They are physical infrastructure, essential inputs that convert electrical energy into precise, efficient movement. As intelligence scales into the physical economy, magnet intensity per system increases, not decreases, because precision, torque density, and energy efficiency become more critical as systems become more autonomous. In this environment, our positioning is fundamentally different from much of the market. While many companies are confronting uncertainty around their long-term economic durability in an AI world, we are building directly into its structural expansion.

Our assets are not lines of code subject to rapid substitution. They are scarce, strategic, industrial capacity of growing economic and national importance, capacity that becomes more valuable as the physical AI cycle matures. In moments like this, leadership matters. The countries and companies that control essential industrial capacity shape the trajectory of this new era. We have built MP to be that kind of platform, vertically integrated, technically differentiated, scaled, and American. We will remain disciplined and focused on execution. Over time, structural demand paired with thoughtful capital allocation is what drives enduring value. That is the work we are doing deliberately, methodically, and with a long-term horizon. With that, I turn it back to the team for Q&A.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please click on the Raise Hand button, which can be found on the black bar at the bottom of your screen. When it is your turn, you will receive a message on your screen from the host allowing you to talk, and then you will hear your name called. Please accept, unmute your audio, and ask your question. Our first question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. You may now unmute your audio and ask your question.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: Thank you very much, operator. Hello, Jim and Ryan and Michael. Thank you for today’s update. This has been super helpful. Congratulations on a first quarter realizing much higher pricing from your PPA agreement. If I could, I’d just ask one and a follow-up. On the OEM, can you tell us whether or not it’s a U.S.-based auto OEM, or is it a foreign OEM?

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Hey, Lawson, it’s Ryan. I think Jim mentioned in his prepared remarks, you know, while we’re not gonna get into specific details, this is one of America’s leading, you know, technology companies. You know, I think what this agreement speaks to broadly is, you know, what we’ve been talking about for a long while, which is accelerating demand for NdPr and the value of the platform that we provide, being able to be a solutions provider for these types of companies that are looking to transition their supply chain away from China. Being able to address the various points in the supply chain from raw materials all the way through to magnets, I think is super important.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay. No, that’s fair. Understand the desire not to give too much detail. Then just on the timeline with 10X, I mean, things seem to be moving quite quickly here, and we had originally thought of 2029 as being kind of a target year. I mean, is there a possibility to move that forward? Could 10X potentially be developed slightly more quickly than what you guys had originally envisioned?

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Well, 10X procurement and long lead equipment focus and a lot of design and engineering, that all really started, Lawson, last July. Once we signed the agreement, we got to work building the new team there, coordinating that new team with our existing team, then thinking about all of the equipment and pieces of the process that we could do while we then ran our process for site selection. What I would say is I’ve directed the team to think of this project like you’ve probably heard the term zero-based budgeting. This is a zero-based days project. We are focused on getting this online as quickly as possible. We’ve said we’ll be commissioning that in 2028. We’ve made a lot of progress. We think it’s on track.

We’ll keep trying to make up as much time as we can as aggressively as we possibly can. It’s going really well.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: Well, fantastic. Great work.

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Thanks.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Our next question comes from George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity. You may now unmute your line and ask your question.

George Gianarikas, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions.

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: hey, George.

George Gianarikas, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: Hey there. Wanted to ask about this OEM agreement again in terms of just how you think about the P&L and the economics behind selling oxide directly-

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Yeah.

George Gianarikas, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: -or selling magnets. How do you think about just the trade-off between the two? Thank you.

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Yeah. Hey, George. It’s Ryan. You know, I think importantly, the way we’re approaching this is, you know, effectively Independence at this point is sold out. I think we’ve been clear about our strategy around 10X. You know, given the, you know, offtake that’s in place there, we have the luxury of continuing to be extremely methodical in how we deliver commercial syndication from that facility. I think importantly, as I mentioned earlier, we are really the only solutions provider to all of these various OEMs that are really accelerating the look at their supply chain and attempting to transition away from China as quickly as possible.

The fact that we can play a major role there in providing raw materials into their supply chain immediately and capture that value today while opening up some pretty significant opportunities, I would expect, in the downstream, I think is, you know, hugely value accretive to us. You know, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, having an oxide agreement of this scale, you know, certainly does, you know, accrue to the benefit of the material segment in the near term, both from a, you know, working capital perspective, the cadence of sales, and of course, you know, the value that we’ll realize there from our product given the various stage of development that we’re in between scaling Mountain Pass to its ultimate full run rate while we continue to ramp Independence thoughtfully and get 10X online.

George Gianarikas, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: That’s great. Thank you. As a follow-up, I’d love to hear Jim opine on what he thinks is happening to NdPr prices in China. Thank you.

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Well, commodities prices, George, as you know, are always tough. I do think that, you know, there’s a few things. One, the reaction post-RDEAL, I think the Chinese no longer, you know, are gonna be as mercantilist because there’s no point. Lastly, I would also then say that, you know, NdPr is seeing demand from what we’re seeing around physical AI, and, you know, kind of what I said in the prepared remarks around a lot of excitement around everything that’s happening with respect to motion in the economy. I think there’s. When you think about critical minerals, you know, there’s kind of the scarcity. There’s two kinds.

There’s sort of the heavies and some of the other niche metals where they’re just scarce, and we need to get more here because the only option is China. In general, the demand function for those is, you know, somewhat consistent or static. Whereas with NdPr, especially because of the restrictions around heavies, what we’re seeing, and we’re seeing this live, I think we can probably give you a couple live anecdotes where we’ve actually seen, you know, a major consumer of rare earth magnets completely change their spec overnight to essentially eliminate heavies and focus on shifting towards more NdPr.

What we’re seeing is we’re seeing the traction motor, you know, the EV and hybrid makers focus on trying to maximize NdPr, shift away from heavies. Actually we’re seeing, again, real-time action on that front that is material to that as well as then all of the other use cases around. I think that NdPr will be obviously the key material of physical AI, that’s, you know, the big growth function there. When you add it all up, I think, one, it’s the, you know, the market reaction to getting a little bit more of a normalized price in NdPr because we’re getting closer to market economics. We’re still not there.

It’s a function of some of the existing use cases where we’re seeing real-time substitution towards more NdPr. It’s, you know, a lot of the sort of growth excitement that we’re seeing around the board. I would say, I mention this, I kinda reference this in the prepared remarks. There’s sort of a bifurcation happening. I think NdPr is really the growth commodity. Again, commodities prices can always do crazy things, but I think we’re gonna see, you know, continued acceleration in NdPr prices. I would say that the market environment probably currently maybe overweights pricing in the heavies. I think there’s gonna end up being a number of sources of heavies globally.

We’re certainly working on that issue quite a bit. You know, as Michael mentioned, we’re gonna have our heavy separation online this year. I think I wouldn’t be surprised if that market actually gets quite saturated over the next few years.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Thanks.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Our next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess maybe just a follow-up to George’s question. You know, there’s in the marketplace, lots of focus, and I guess policy driven as well, you know, focused on pricing floors and the like. You know, Jim, your prepared remarks, it sounded like there’s, you know, NdPr upside that needs to be better appreciated and more of a focus here. We have seen some strength here recently. Is there maybe a way to think about what that NdPr pricing level or entitlement could be? You talked about kind of a normalized price. Like, what could that be, or what could that range be over time? Is there a trigger or, you know, sort of timeframe where you think that that could ultimately materialize?

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: I mean, that’s such a hard thing, you know. I guess the famous expression, predictions tell you more about the prognosticator than the future. I do think with respect to NdPr, you know, I think I’ve consistently conveyed the view that I think that if we were actually in sort of a real fair, you know, free market, so to speak, in NdPr, you would see prices materially higher, you know, way higher than today for sure, into the hundreds of dollars, just because of the what is sort of the adequate return on capital required to bring online projects, right? If there wasn’t a non-market geopolitical actor in setting prices and it was just sort of what would incentivize capital, I think prices would be materially higher.

The realities of the market are the realities of the market. We’ve made a lot of progress, obviously, given what we’ve done with DoW and given some of the market developments, but we’re not fully there, obviously. I think on the next piece, it actually comes down to sort of the pace of how quickly physical AI matures. Obviously, you saw our announcement today of an enormous strategic partnership on offtake. I’ve been actually, I would say, really delightfully surprised at how exciting it has been, you know, engagement-wise with, you know, various companies, many of which are in the physical AI space or intend to be behind the scenes.

I do think, you know, I do think that that is actually gonna create another leg upward, but it’s hard to know kinda how quickly that stuff will come online. I would encourage you can obviously do the math around, you know, do your own curves on what that means for the market and then obviously sort of from a supply chain standpoint, what’s gonna happen in the West versus, you know, what is sort of Chinese supply for China, particularly because I think robotics is something that is really a dual use technology, so it’s gonna be really hard for a lot of Western companies to get licenses for rare earth magnets.

We’re seeing that in real-time, that there’s real concern that you know, the biggest, you know, best technology companies in the world that wanna compete, are concerned that they’re not gonna get licenses for this, and obviously that positions us really well.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Yeah. Makes a lot of sense. Just to follow up on, you know, some of the policy stuff that’s still circling around the space, you know, Project Vault and Section 232, among others, are there any implications for you? Is it impacting your business discussions with, you know, non-DoW offtake parties or maybe even DoW discussions? Would you expect any impact on pricing? I know it’s early and uncertain, but, you know, maybe any thoughts around how you might stand to benefit there?

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Yeah. No, it’s a good thought. I think, you know, first and foremost, obviously our deal last year kicked off a big change in our industry, and it opened up the capital markets and it obviously created a bigger window here for us in the West to work on this problem, and it’s exciting. I think what you’re seeing is it’s not just the DoW, but there are all aspects of the administration, you know, the main verticals, whether it’s state or commerce or treasury or interior or energy, everybody is focused on this issue. It’s a key directive from the president. I think when you look, there are a number of these things you mentioned, Vault and, you know, there’s FORGE and there’s a few others, I would say.

They’re in various stages of development, each of them. Some require allied nations to kinda come to a view and have a plan. Some are things that are coordination between the private and public sector. What I would say is most of those things are, I would say somewhat early or at least not done. We would expect to be a big part of how things might form in some of those categories that you mentioned. My guess is that all, any of those things will be very good for us, but there’s nothing really tangible yet, that I could guide you to specifically.

Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer, MP Materials: Okay. I’ll pass it on. Thank you, guys.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Our next question comes from Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.

Corinne Blanchard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Hey, good afternoon, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my question. Could you just talk maybe about the CapEx cadence we can expect for the year? Guide you gave of $500 million-$600 million mostly related to the 10X, but just wondering how that maybe breaks for the quarter. A similar question for the EBITDA cadences.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: Sure, Corinne, it’s Ryan. As we think about the cadence, there’ll be quite a bit of lumpiness throughout the year, within that range, given the fact that we’ll have some initial capital spend probably early in the year, particularly on the land that we’ve just acquired that was announced this morning for our site in Northlake, Texas. You know, throughout the course of the year, obviously, the portion of that CapEx targeted at 10X will start to scale as we begin construction.

Some of the other parts of the business and growth initiatives that we’re working on, you know, namely, our engagement with Apple, you know, there’s capital spend really throughout the year with probably a slight bend towards the tail end of the year as we get that equipment installed and prepared for 2027, you know, commencement of that agreement. As relates to the EBITDA cadence, obviously, you know, back to Jim’s comment on predicting NdPr prices, I think that’s probably gonna be the biggest driver here. As you’re aware, you know, the upside in NdPr pricing, we maintain all of that, you know, ahead of the commissioning of 10X.

If we see prices continue to perform as they have and continue to go up, obviously that’ll, you know, shift earnings accordingly. As I talked about in my remarks, obviously, our contracts are all generally priced on approximately a quarter, maybe slightly longer lag. You know, this will flow through over time. You won’t see, you know, today’s spot price, you know, hit Q1. You’ll see it hit Q2. I would just keep that in mind as you look at the quarterly cadence.

Corinne Blanchard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Thank you. If I can, for a second question, can you share, how do you view, the, maybe the best way, to access, the heavy needs beyond what you already are? Are you thinking about more recycling? Are you thinking about, you know, mine expansion, and you’re looking at all the peer M&A? Just trying to figure out.

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: I think Sorry, Corinne, is the question, how are we gonna grow supply? You said more recycling and what was the other part?

Corinne Blanchard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Yeah, especially like on the heavy side, like how do you approach it? Would it be through M&A or like recycling, recycled content?

Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer, MP Materials: Thanks, Corinne. It’s Michael. Yeah, we are certainly looking at recycling as an option. I think as I’ve said in the past, we think the integrated nature of our site allows us to avail ourselves of a diverse range of feedstocks. With our agreement with the Department of War, we have their support to source feedstocks from around the world. I think there’ll be a mix of perhaps traditional recycling and non-traditional feedstocks. As Jim mentioned, you know, our progress in reducing our heavy need, you know, makes us less overall concerned, but we think we will be the largest producer of heavy earths in the Western Hemisphere for, from now, for as long as you can imagine.

Corinne Blanchard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Thank you.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Our next question comes from Carlos de Alba with Morgan Stanley. You may now go ahead with your question.

Carlos de Alba, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Yeah. Thank you very much. Congrats on the progress on the different projects. Just on 10X. Just a clarification on the CapEx in the announcement had $1.25 billion plus. I mean, can you provide maybe a little bit of color on that plus? Maybe dimension that for us, quantify that for us, just on the modeling side. I think there was also a comment on that, on that release suggesting that 100% of the 10X and Independence light and heavy rare earths needs will come from the company’s Mountain Pass operation. That means that you will not really depend on third-party heavy rare earths. Just wanted to clarify that given the importance of that aspect.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: Yeah, sure, Carlos. I’ll start with your last question. We do intend to meet all heavy and light feedstock, you know, for both facilities from the Mountain Pass processing facility. As Michael just talked through, we have various initiatives in place, you know, in partnership with the Department of War, in partnership with Apple, from our own sourcing strategies to bring in incremental heavy rare earth feedstock. I think the thing that’s really important to understand there as well is when you think about a business model that is centering on third-party feedstocks as part of a supplement to its, you know, ability to produce products, you really have to produce both lights and heavies in order to compete in that market.

There is no way you can compete economically without being able to extract the value from all of those. We are extremely confident in our ability to continue to source third-party feedstock as we are, frankly, as we speak. As it relates to your question on 10X and the capital investment there, you know, given the importance of this, the size of it, you know, we are focused on doing the right thing for our core customer, for our future customers, and from a return on invested capital perspective. The reality is portions of that facility may grow or shrink over time when we get to sort of our final ultimate design.

What we have always done and will continue to do is provide guidance to you all on an annual basis, to allow you to sort of track our progress there. As we talked about, you know, this year being in the $500 million-$600 million range, that obviously reflects a pretty significant initial investment in bringing that facility online as quickly as we can.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst, Jefferies: Got it. Thank you very much.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Our next question will come from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst, Jefferies: Hiya. Just two quick ones. First, can you give an update on the progress on the Saudi JV and your bandwidth for a similar front JV potentially in either Europe or South America? Secondly, can you give an update on your approach to hiring formulation engineers and your strategy towards, you know, how many SKUs are you offering the customers? Or are you encouraging them to focus on a narrower number of SKUs?

Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, MP Materials: Sure. well, on Maaden, there’s really two tracks. as you know, we signed a binding term sheet late last year. we have to finalize formal documents, with our partner in that transaction, the Department of War, and then with Maaden to kind of do the aggregate JV. Obviously, all of the a lot of the final details need to be associated with our, you know, final estimation on the cost of the build, the process flow of the facility. There’s a number of pieces that we have to work on to get towards completion on that front. of course, that means that the second work stream is from an operating standpoint. You know, Michael and his team are working on, you know, the process flow, all aspects of how that facility will work.

There’s sort of two main streams there. What I would tell you is obviously that is a, you know, that is gonna be a big exciting project, but it’s gonna take some time. I mean, we’re gonna make sure that that is built right, and we’re gonna, you know, do that cautiously and thoughtfully. You know, we’ll do that methodically, I guess is the best way to say it, and we’re continuing to work on that. I think the next question was around South America or Europe. I mean, as you know, as an organization, we are opportunistic. If you look at five years ago today when roughly when we went public, when we were just a concentrate business, we didn’t even have an employee in our magnetics business.

You fast-forward today, and you look at the scale, and the depth of our organization and what we’ve built. I think we can take on a lot of challenges, particularly because I think we are very execution-focused, but we’re, you know, we move quickly and aggressively. We’ll, you know, we will be opportunistic, and I think hopefully we’ll, you know, we’d never be in a position where we’d bite off more than we can chew. You know, I guess that’s a long-winded way of saying, sure, we’re gonna be opportunistic about, you know, lots of things. We certainly have a lot on our plate right now. I think you asked also about recruiting and engineers, and we’ve certainly built, a pretty extraordinary team in our magnetics business. That team is growing.

You know, getting that project done is, you know, is no small task. I’m obviously very focused on that. We have a whole team that we’ve built, since we signed that deal last July, and that’s really going, you know, that’s underway and going really well. You know, we’re focused on executing that.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: I think the only thing I’d.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst, Jefferies: Thank you.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: ... on that, Laurence, is, you know, in your question about focusing on SKUs, I think what’s interesting is from a magnet formulation perspective, I think Jim made the point earlier, we’ve seen a really big push from customers, to, you know, really narrow their focus on heavy rare earth-free or extremely reduced magnet formulations. I think Jim also spoke about the progress that we’ve made there, even versus our, you know, initial formula for EV traction motors, as an example, being, you know, 60% lower than where we started out, which was already on the low end of sort of market norms.

I think what we’re also working through right now is, you know, I think fundamentally in the magnetics business, the only way to make the economics work in the early days is to have scale and to be able to build the quality and production quality processes that are necessary for a customer like an automaker. That’s what enables you to do all the rest and introduce the incremental industrial complexity of the various SKUs. I think the great thing is, with the base under us of sort of these very large customer agreements with a GM and an Apple, for example, 10X is designed to have a significant amount of incremental flexibility.

You know, if you paid attention to our agreements that were filed with the Department of War, you know, they spoke to a variety of different magnet specifications and grades that we would agree to mutually. We’ve already done that with them, and we’ve basically opened up, I think, the vast majority of the market there and what’s in our development pipeline. You know, we are absolutely building out the capability to take, you know, different formulations and different SKUs of various sizes and shapes, you know, as we approach 10X.

Bill Peterson, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Thank you.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: Our last question comes from Bill Peterson with J.P. Morgan. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Bill Peterson, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Yeah, thanks for sneaking me in. Congrats on the results and all the great information here. Question on I guess, offtake and further offtake agreements. I guess you have the desire, or the bandwidth, or the capacity to support additional offtake agreements, or would this be limited by expansion such as Upstream 60K or having the 10X facility up and running? I think the question is also related to what Jim was discussing earlier about a clear focus of some of your customers on physical AI versus maybe auto, where the volumes could be much larger. Just any sense of how should we think about future offtake agreements?

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: Well.

Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer, MP Materials: Brian, yeah, why don’t you start on offtake and then I’ll-

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: Sure, yeah. I think, Bill, you know, we continue to remain opportunistic. I think certainly if you think about the scale of demand from automakers, it’s almost 30% of magnet content today goes in the automotive supply chain, and nearly 100% of that today is coming out of China. Just the, you know, the slice of the pie there that is available as those customers look to diversify their supply chains, in today’s market is pretty exceptional. I think to Jim’s point, what we are starting to see is a really accelerated focus from a variety of other users. I mean, various pieces of, you know, physical AI, whether it be, you know, robotics and sort of, you know, those types of applications, or frankly, a lot of items that go into data centers even are major magnet users.

You know, there’s a whole host of growth vectors within the segment right now that, you know, we are also focused on targeting. You know, we’ll continue to be opportunistic. I don’t know if Jim or Mike have anything else to add.

Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer, MP Materials: I think just add that, our upstream business, you know, hopefully approaching 6,000 tons per annum by the end of this year versus our magnet demand immediately, leaves room for additional offtake demand. In addition, as we increase third-party feedstocks and recycling, that could provide additional material to continue to broad into the market.

Bill Peterson, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: All right, thanks for that. I guess the second question is, can you provide us an update on the magnet qualification at your lead auto customer, as well as the comments, Michael, you made about, you know, the troubleshoot ramp. I’d like to double-click on that. Is there anything to call out there in terms of focus on yield or throughputs or... I think the technical performance is fine, but just is there anything else you can kind of speak to on that on the magnet ramp?

Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer, MP Materials: I’ll start with the latter part. I’ll let Brian handle the PPAP. On the, you know, the magnet ramp, I think stepping back, thinking about where we were several years ago, I couldn’t be more proud and I also couldn’t be more optimistic that our team will be able to tackle this challenge. You know, we know that starting a new facility is challenging, but, you know, the challenges we’ve achieved or overcome so far relative to what we have to do now, I think it’s just a focus on execution. And that’s what we’ve done at Mountain Pass, you know, focus on quality and focus on execution for the customer, and over time, build the volume. We’ll continue to play that playbook out.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: Yeah. On PPAP, Bill, you know, as I said earlier, kind of zooming out, one of the reasons we wanted to start with an automotive customer was our desire to produce magnets at the outset that could withstand some of the highest quality standards that are required for things like EV motors. PPAP is obviously a fairly extensive process. You know, it audits not only the product quality, but also the manufacturing processes themselves. You have to demonstrate different run at rate scenarios, et cetera. Frankly, going through that process will continue as we, you know, launch a facility, will hone our processes and capabilities, and it’s gonna put us in a position to accelerate and bring, you know, customers like Apple on even more quickly. We are just beginning that process.

Given our significant engagement from day one in building this plant in partnership with GM, we believe it’ll be a relatively accelerated process compared to sort of a typical, you know, auto supplier qualification. That’s what informs our guidance and view of back half of the year for sellable magnets.

Bill Peterson, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Thanks a lot.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs0: That concludes the question and answer portion of today’s call. I will now hand the call back to Mr. Litinsky for closing remarks.

Brian Lee, Analyst, Goldman Sachs1: Thank you. Well, thank you, everyone. It was a pretty outstanding quarter to a transformational incredible year of 2025, and 2026 is off to a great start. We will get back to work and see you all soon.