Exelon Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - $41.3B Transmission-Led Capex Push Targets 7.9% Rate-Base Growth and 5%-7% EPS CAGR
Summary
Exelon closed 2025 with another beat, reporting $2.77 adjusted operating EPS and setting a 2026 guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 as it pivots materially toward transmission investment. Management rolled out a $41.3 billion, four-year capital plan driven roughly 70% by transmission, and reiterated a 5%-7% annualized operating earnings growth target through 2029, with the company expecting to be near the top end. The message was disciplined: execute large, diversified, regulator-backed projects while protecting affordability and keeping O&M growth well below inflation.
Behind the headlines are three clear themes. First, Exelon is doubling down on transmission as both a revenue engine and a reliability play, with line of sight to $12B-$17B of additional transmission opportunity. Second, regulatory progress and settlements (Atlantic City Electric, Delmarva, ComEd/BGE reconciliations, ComEd multi-year plan filing) underpin near-term cash recovery. Third, financing and customer affordability remain front-and-center, with a balanced funding plan, a $1 billion convertible issued, modest equity needs over the plan, and active advocacy for utility-led generation and market fixes to address PJM supply shortfalls.
Key Takeaways
- Exelon reported 2025 adjusted operating EPS of $2.77, above expectations, and GAAP EPS of $2.73 for the year.
- 2026 operating earnings guidance initiated at $2.81-$2.91 per share, with first-quarter earnings expected to be ~31% of the midpoint.
- Company announced a $41.3 billion capital plan for 2026-2029, up $3.3 billion (9%) from prior period; more than 70% of the increase is incremental transmission investment.
- Rate base growth is projected at approximately 7.9% annualized through 2029, driven by nearly $23 billion of additions from 2025 to 2029.
- Exelon expects earned ROEs in the 9%-10% range and annualized operating earnings growth of 5%-7% through 2029, with management aiming to be near the top end.
- Transmission rate base CAGR is expected to exceed 15% from 2025 through the guidance period, and management has line of sight to an additional $12 billion-$17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade.
- Company highlighted recent PJM reliability window wins recommending ~$1.2 billion of incremental Exelon investment, plus other large awards like Brandon Shores, Tri-County and MISO Tranche 2.1 exposure.
- Regulatory progress: final settlements/orders for Atlantic City Electric (NJ) and Delmarva Gas (DE) at 9.6% ROE; reconciliations closed at ComEd and BGE (BGE only partially approved, prompting realignment of capital); ComEd filed its multi-year grid plan for 2028-2031.
- Affordability and customer programs: $60 million customer relief fund executed in 2025, ongoing low-income discounts, expanded energy efficiency and distributed resource connections, and TSAs filed at FERC to protect existing customers while enabling large-load connections.
- Operational performance and reliability remain top quartile historically; Winter Storm Fern produced outages to fewer than 1% of customers despite heavy stress on PJM (five consecutive days of 135-140 GW peaks).
- Exelon is actively advocating policy responses to PJM supply issues; cited Charles River Associates study estimating utility-generated power could have saved PJM customers $9.6B-$20B in 2028-2029 and reduced outage risk by ~85%.
- Funding plan for the $41.3 billion: $22 billion internal cash flow, $13 billion utility debt, $3 billion holding company debt, and a modest amount of equity; equity need over the four-year plan estimated at $3.4 billion (~40% target equity funding).
- Company issued $1.0 billion of convertible debt in December, pre-funding a significant portion of 2026 long-term debt needs and already executed ~$700 million of the ~$3.4 billion equity plan via ATMs/forwards.
- Credit metrics: average 2025 consolidated metric of 13.5% (above Moody’s 12% downgrade threshold by 150 bps); target credit metric of ~14% through the plan to preserve 100-200 bps of flexibility vs ratings downgrade thresholds.
- Ongoing cost discipline: management claims ~$580 million annualized O&M savings versus inflationary baseline and targets adjusted O&M growth of no more than 2.5% through 2029.
- AFUDC and transmission timing are cited as incremental tailwinds to EPS, helping bridge the gap between rate base growth and EPS growth after financing costs.
- Pipeline detail: additional upside includes ~$1 billion associated with high-density load projects with signed transmission service agreements; MISO Tranche 2.1 includes >$1 billion in ComEd territory pending FERC cost allocation filing.
- State-level activity: Pepco Maryland base rate case proceeding with final order expected in August 2026; Delmarva Power electric base filing seeks $44.6 million revenue increase and interim rates potentially effective July 9; BGE expected to file base rate case in 2026 despite awaiting a lessons-learned review.
- Management emphasis on an all-of-the-above policy response to reliability and affordability, pursuing utility-owned generation, market design fixes (eg, price cap extension), interconnection and rate design reforms, and collaborative legislative engagement across PA, MD, NJ and DE.
Full Transcript
Gigi, Event Specialist: Hello, and welcome to Exelon’s fourth quarter earnings call. My name is Gigi, and I’ll be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today’s webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we’ll have a question and answer session. You can ask questions by pressing star one one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to view the presentation in a full screen view, click the full screen button by hovering your computer mouse cursor over the PowerPoint screen. Press the escape key on your keyboard to return to your original view. And finally, should you need technical assistance, as a best practice, we suggest you first refresh your browser. If that does not resolve the issue, please click on the Help option in the upper right-hand corner of your screen for online troubleshooting.
It is now my pleasure to turn today’s program over to Ryan Brown, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Ryan Brown, Vice President of Investor Relations, Exelon: Great. Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us for our 2025 fourth quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jeanne Jones, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon’s senior management team are also with us today, and they’ll be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. Today’s presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information, can be found in the investor relations section of Exelon’s website. I’d also like to remind you that today’s presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on slide 2 of today’s presentation or in our SEC filings. In addition, today’s presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures.
Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of our presentation and in our earnings release. With that, it’s now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon’s President and CEO.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Thank you, Ryan, and congratulations on the new role, and good morning to everyone. We appreciate everyone joining us today for our fourth quarter earnings call. As we reflect on another successful year and celebrate the close of our 25th anniversary, we’re proud to once again deliver exceptional results for our customers, employees, and investors. Across Exelon, our companies bring more than 800 years of collective experience. Even with that long view, this moment stands out. The industry is changing at a speed and scale rarely seen. With that comes both great responsibility and opportunity. I’ve never been more confident that Exelon has the people, the discipline, and the platform to continue to lead the energy transformation and meet this unprecedented demand. This is underscored by our recent results. As you saw from this morning’s release, we delivered another strong year.
For 2025, we reported adjusted operating earnings per share of $2.77, delivering above expectations. This continues our track record of exceeding the midpoint of guidance in each year as a standalone utility. Since 2021, we’ve achieved a 7.4% annual earnings growth rate and 8% rate base growth through 2025, highlighting our ability to navigate changes and consistently execute. This steady performance is a direct result of a continued focus on affordability and our ability to deliver investments that directly benefit our customers, providing above average performance at below average rates. It was also another exceptional year operation. Exelon continues to set the standard for the industry. Our utilities maintain top quartile reliability metrics once again, and we’re ranked one, two, four, and seven amongst our peers based on 2024 benchmarking data.
This level of performance is nothing new. In fact, we’ve delivered top quartile reliability for over a decade. It’s who we are and centered to our mission. But don’t get me wrong, consistency does not come easy. It’s the direct result of a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and a steadfast focus on targeted investments that maximize value for our customers. These investments not only prevent outages and deliver best-in-class service, but they directly benefit local economies, with every $1 million invested, creating 8 jobs or $1.6 million of economic output. I am truly humbled by the commitment and sacrifice of our employees that make this level of service possible. Recently, their dedication was on full display during Winter Storm Fern. Despite record low temperatures, our investments withstood heavy snow and icing across our territories, maintaining strong reliability with only minimal disruptions.
Fewer than 1% of our customers experienced outages, even as the extreme weather impacted our regions. This reflects the tremendous work of our employees over the past decade to invest in the safety, reliability, and resiliency of our system. The performance is remarkable when accounting for the scale of the storm, as well as the demand put on the grid. Fern resulted in the PJM RTO experiencing 5 days in a row of peak load ranging from 135-140 gigawatts, reaching 97% of the all-time winter peak. Our investments, combined with our employees’ around-the-clock dedication, kept nearly 11 million electric and gas customers safe and warm when they needed us most.... I’d like to express my gratitude to all of our employees who have supported storm restoration efforts locally and afar. Thank you for all that you do.
Over the last quarter, we also made significant progress on the regulatory front. As Gene will detail shortly, it’s been an active few months. We’ve achieved several key milestones, including final settlements for the Atlantic City Electric and Delmarva Gas rate cases, reconciliation orders at ComEd and BGE, and the filing of ComEd’s second multi-year grid plan. This progress is built on a foundation of hard-earned trust. We work collaboratively with stakeholders and our communities to ensure that our investments align with the specific goals and needs of the states we serve. Looking ahead, we now expect to invest $41.3 billion of capital to support our customers, with more than 70% of the plan over plan increase driven by transmission, where we continue to have a unique opportunity and significant momentum.
Our size and scale, multi-state footprint, and operational expertise position our utilities to capitalize on the growing need for transmission investments in reliability and resiliency, accelerated by the pace of new business growth. This progress is further evidenced by our success in the recent PJM Reliability Window results, where $1.2 billion of incremental Exelon investment was recommended, including a jointly developed solution with NextEra. This comes on the heels of other recent large-scale transmission awards, including Brandon Shores, Tri-County, and the MISO Tranche 2.1 project. You should expect us to be active in future windows within PJM and other ISOs, leveraging our competitive advantages where appropriate. And we continue to see robust demand in our jurisdictions, with anticipated load growth exceeding 3% through 2029.
This is further reinforced by our large load pipeline, which is now further supported by an increasing number of signed transmission security agreements or TSAs. Overall, our pure transmission and distribution capital plan is unique and truly differentiated. It’s highly diversified across seven regulatory jurisdictions, including FERC, with no one jurisdiction greater than 30% and no single project comprising more than 3% of the plan. It’s also actionable. We have line of sight to each project that comprises the $41.3 billion, with a significant pipeline of incremental projects over the next five to 10 years and the size and scale to execute efficiently.
With continued returns on equity in the 9%-10% range, we expect rate-based growth of approximately 8% and annualized earnings growth of 5%-7% through 2029, with the expectation of being near the top end of that range. We will continue to fund investments in a balanced and disciplined manner that maintains a strong balance sheet. For 2026, we are initiating operating earnings guidance of $2.81-$2.91 per share. Our continued progress is clearly demonstrated by the scorecard on slide five, where we’ve once again met or exceeded every goal we set at the start of the year. At Exelon, commitments made are commitments met, that discipline and credibility define who we are and shape how our teams operate every day.
In addition to strong operational and financial performance, we continue to lead on customer affordability, which remains a top priority. We continuously drive costs out of the business through efficiency and innovation, maintaining a track record of cost growth well below inflation. In the past year, we executed a $60 million customer relief fund to support low and moderate-income customers facing higher supply costs. We advanced innovative TSAs that prioritize large loads while ensuring existing customers remain protected. Our award-winning energy efficiency programs continue to deliver meaningful savings. We expanded connections of distributed resources, giving customers more ways to participate and save. We are steadfast in introducing innovative tools and processes to connect customers to low-income assistance. We continue to focus on actions like these that are directly within our control, in addition to delivering safe, reliable energy while keeping bills as low as possible.
In the meantime, we are also actively partnering with federal, RTO, and state leaders to address high supply prices and emerging reliability risks. The supply challenge is real, but not insurmountable. We’re encouraged by the growing national focus, including the recent announcement from the White House and our state governors, advancing policies to incent new generation and improve affordability. As we’ve said before, we firmly believe it’s going to require an all-of-the-above strategy that includes utility-generated, demand-side, and merchant solutions. This was further supported by the study released last week by Charles River Associates. The report is an urgent call to action, highlighting the risk of the status quo and the cost and reliability benefits of utility-generated energy. Specifically, they note that utility-generated power could have saved total PJM customers $9.6 billion-$20 billion in the 2028, 2029 delivery year...
while reducing the risk of potential future outages from energy shortages by approximately 85%. We are committed to continue to work with all stakeholders to advance policies that strengthen energy security as quickly and cost effectively as possible. Finally, I want to take a moment to reiterate why our platform and approach is best positioned for the years to come. As highlighted on slide 6, our foundation is based upon a customer focus and industry-leading operations. With our size and scale, constructive regulatory frameworks, and diversified footprint and capital plan, we have a disciplined and defensive foundation that is resilient. Yet, at the same time, we’re well-positioned to capture credible, meaningful opportunities for sustainable growth. We’re excited about where we’re headed. Our platform is designed to deliver an attractive, risk-adjusted return and long-term value for all stakeholders.
I’ll now turn the call to Jeanne to dive deeper into our 2025 results and share more details on our updated long-term plan. Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our fourth quarter and full-year results, key regulatory developments, and updates to our financial disclosures, including 2026 guidance. Starting on slide 7, as Calvin noted, since becoming a standalone utility, we have continued to execute, and 2025 adds to that track record. In 2025, we delivered $2.73 per share on a GAAP basis and $2.77 per share on a non-GAAP basis for the full year, reflecting strong year-over-year growth. For the quarter, Exelon earned $0.58 on a GAAP basis and $0.59 on a non-GAAP basis. Full-year earnings above our guidance range primarily benefited from favorable weather and storm conditions and the resolution of certain regulatory proceedings.
Throughout the year, we also managed costs well across the platform, ensuring we could accommodate a range of outcomes while monitoring regulatory activity and weather in the fourth quarter. Quarter to date and year-to-date drivers relative to prior year can be found on appendix slides 37 and 38. Turning to slide 8, we are initiating 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81-$2.91 per share. With much of our growth aligned with completed rate cases and continued strong cost management, the 2026 implied midpoint relative to the midpoint of our 2025 estimated guidance range is ahead of previous disclosures, reflecting midpoint-to-midpoint growth above 6%. Our performance in 2025 underscores our ability to deliver strong financial results amid uncertainty, all while operating at industry-leading levels and innovating to find new and creative ways to support our customers.
We’ve executed operational efficiencies, capitalized on our growth opportunities, and identified more ways than ever to support our customers. We look forward to furthering this progress in 2026. Looking ahead to the first quarter, we expect earnings to be approximately 31% of the midpoint of our projected full-year earnings guidance range, which is in line with historical averages. This accounts for completed regulatory filings, anticipated revenue shaping, and O&M timing, as well as normal weather and storm conditions throughout the quarter. Turning to slide 9, we executed another busy regulatory calendar in 2025, marking significant milestones and reaching final resolution on open reconciliations and key rate cases, providing cost recovery for the next several years.
Starting with Atlantic City Electric, in November, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved a settlement supporting the recovery of $54 million associated with grid improvements and modernization investments in line with New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan and the Clean Energy Act at a 9.6% ROE. New rates went into effect at the beginning of December 2025. Also in December, the Delaware Public Service Commission issued a final order on the Delmarva Power Gas rate case, approving a settlement that supports a $21.5 million revenue requirement and 9.6% ROE, recovering various reliability investments and LNG plant upgrades, which protect customers from price volatility during peak periods. Rates went into effect at the beginning of this year.
In addition to closing out base rate case activity, we also received final orders in our open reconciliations at BGE and ComEd in December, now gaining clarity on the recovery of our investments from 2023 and 2024. While we were disappointed to receive about half of the BGE reconciliation, we realigned capital accordingly. Finally, moving to our core regulatory activity for 2026, the Pepco Maryland base rate case continues to progress according to the procedural schedule, with intervener testimony filed at the end of last month. A final order is expected in August this year. In December, Delmarva Power filed an electric base rate case in Delaware, requesting a net revenue increase of $44.6 million to support system reliability investments, storm remediation, and storm damage costs.
DPL also requested to implement a bill stabilization adjustment, which will offer customers more predictability as seasonal temperatures grow increasingly volatile. DPL expects to be able to implement interim rates in effect on July ninth. Finally, on January sixteenth, ComEd filed its multi-year grid plan in Illinois, requesting an approval of an investment plan covering 2028 through 2031 in support of the priorities laid out in the state’s CEJA and CRGA bills. A final order is expected in December, and the company expects to file its next rate filing in 2027. On slide 10, we provide updated utility CapEx and rate base outlook through 2029. We plan to invest almost $10 billion in 2026 and a total of $41.3 billion over the next four years, an increase of $3.3 billion or 9% from the prior four-year planning period....
Incremental investments reflect updates to align with recently approved rate cases and jurisdictional priorities, and an increase in transmission investments. Of the overall increase, approximately 70% or $2.3 billion, is attributable to incremental transmission investments, driven by the structural trends that underpin the energy transformation in our jurisdictions. Increased demand for high voltage investments and capacity expansion to support large load growth, evolving generation supply, and the reliability and resiliency needs of grid customers to withstand increasingly volatile weather. In fact, the majority of the additional transmissions relates to continued system performance and capacity expansion across our platform, supporting incremental data center load in addition to the gradual replacement of an aging network.
Our plan also includes an additional year of investment of our two largest transmission projects, Brandon Shores and Tri-County, going into service in 2028 through 2030, along with the early spend of the MISO Tranche 2.1 project, which goes into service in 2034. Our annualized rate base growth of 7.9% over the next four years reflects an increase from the prior year plan, with a projected addition of nearly $23 billion in rate base from 2025 to 2029. Having executed within 2% of our capital plan since 2023, we are confident we will execute this next stage of growth, driving progress towards economic and energy goals, and always prioritizing our customer needs in everything that we do.
Moving to slide 11, our size and scale, award-winning reliability, and expertise in owning and operating 765 kV lines, uniquely position us to capitalize on additional transition opportunities that enable us to grow our transmission rate base CAGR by over 15% from 2025 through the end of the guidance period. Coupled with our strength and execution, we now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion-$17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade that strengthen and lengthen our plan, of which over 60% includes projects associated with our existing infrastructure, supporting continued reliability, generator deactivations, and providing additional operational flexibility and efficiency.
This upside also includes an estimated $1 billion of transmission associated with high density load projects with signed TFAs, where we now have a foundation for additional certainty in our pipeline as agreements are presented to customers coming out of our cluster study process. We also remain optimistic about the work associated with MISO Tranche 2.1, with over $1 billion of investment in our ComEd service territory, which is now awaiting a cost allocation filing at FERC. Beyond these opportunities, we anticipate additional investment required to support our state’s public policy goals, particularly as our jurisdictions assess energy security and economic development needs. For example, achieving CEJA’s goals and the growing economic development in Illinois will likely require $billions in transmission investments. Finally, as we’ve discussed in prior quarters, success in winning competitively bid projects offer additional upsides.
From our success in winning the Tri-County projects to the $1.2 billion in Exelon investment PJM has recommended in this recent window, our size, scale, and expertise positions us well to pursue competitive opportunities outside of our service territories, within and outside of PJM. Our ability to deploy almost $10 billion of capital annually over the next four years is only possible with a rigorous focus on cost management and delivering value through those investments, supporting customer rates, supporting customer bills at rates 19%-20% below national averages. This focus is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually, relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade.
We feel confident we can continue to keep our expense growth well below inflation levels, demonstrating nearly flat expense growth from 2024 to 2026, and targeting no more than 2.5% adjusted O&M growth through 2029. As we talked about last year, our institutionalized team and a One Exelon culture are committed to delivering value. We have taken advantage of our focused operations, along with our size and scale, to continue to standardize and streamline our structure and operations. Driving out $580 million in annual O&M savings is no small task, but it’s something our customers and shareholders have come to expect. Exelon’s unique platforms and industry best practices enable us to build upon these savings with line of sight to additional opportunities.
As investment needs grow to meet unprecedented load growth and reliability needs, our customers remain our top priority. Since 2021, Exelon’s portion of the average customer bill 2% of median income has remained relatively flat, growing only 10 basis points while maintaining top quartile reliability, which saved customers $1 billion in avoided outage costs last year alone. We’ve reduced annual customer interruptions by nearly 2 million since 2021 and made significant economic impact in our community. Since 2021, we’ve employed 20,000 people, sustained 50,000 jobs, and have fostered nearly $60 billion in economic activity in our communities. Bringing value to our customers is foundational to what we do, and it’s why we invest in the grid.
That’s why we’ve committed to keeping our O&M costs relatively flat from 2024 to 2026, and in partnership with our jurisdictions, have committed to support our customers through nation-leading programs and advocacy efforts. Conversely, the supply side of the average monthly residential bill in the Mid-Atlantic has increased up to 80% or more over the last five years. Customers are now paying more for less. Since July 2024, PJM customers have paid more than $32 billion as supply in the market declined 1.2 GW. That’s why we continue to be at the forefront for advocating for our customers across federal, PJM, and state levels, ensuring that every dollar customers spend can be tied to additional value they receive. We are pleased that federal discussions propose the extension of the PJM capacity auction collar, saving customers tens of billions of dollars through 2030.
But our advocacy efforts don’t stop there. We are committed to advocating for other policies, such as interconnection queue and rate design reforms that protect customers and support economic development. Our first of its kind transmission service agreements filed at FERC do just that, providing a clear path to interconnection while protecting existing customers. We believe all solutions are required to support energy security and drive affordability. This includes encouraging state-procured solutions such as utility-generated power, which can bring certainty that the supply will be there, offer our states control, and ultimately benefit our customers.
Turning to slide 14, with prudent O&M spending and $41.3 billion of projected capital spend, driving 7.9% rate base growth, along with earning ROEs of 9%-10%, we are projecting compounded annual earnings growth near the top end of 5%-7% from our 2025 guidance midpoint of $2.69 per share through 2029. We continue to build momentum across our jurisdictions as we make progress on Pepco and Delmarva rate cases, the ComEd growth plan, and as BGE prepares to file later this year. We look forward to working with our stakeholders to align on the investments that benefit our customers, enable us to maintain and improve upon our operational excellence, all at a fair return.
Maintaining our commitment to transparency, we have provided assumptions associated with our expected annual growth in earnings through 2029 on appendix slide 23. As you can see, we expect to deliver the out years near the top end of the 5-7 range, allowing for flexibility of rate case timing and keeping us on track to deliver near the top end of our 5%-7% annualized growth rate from 2025 to 2029. We also continue to project an annual dividend growth at 5% and anticipate paying out a dividend of $1.68 per share in 2026, in line with that growth. Finally, turning to slide 15, I will conclude with a review of our balance sheet and financing activity, where we’ve continued to de-risk and secure cost-effective capital to invest for the benefit of our customers.
In December, Exelon Corporation issued $1 billion in convertible debt, pulling forward almost over half of our planned long-term corporate debt needs for 2026. Through 2029, we expect to fund the $41.3 billion capital plan, with $22 billion of internally generated cash flow, $13 billion of debt at the utilities, and $3 billion of total debt at the holding company, with the balance funded with a modest amount of equity. As a reminder, our policy is to fund incremental capital needs with approximately 40% of equity. Specifically, our total equity needs of $3.4 billion over the 4-year plan implies approximately $850 million of annualized equity needs, less than 2% of Exelon’s annual market cap. We have already made progress on 20% of these equity needs, having priced $700 million in 2025 using forward contracts under our ATM.
Our financial plan has been designed to accommodate the use of other fixed income securities that receive equity credit in place of senior debt at our holding company. Identifying opportunities to mitigate risk and maintaining a strong balance sheet continues to be core to our strategy. Ending 2025, our average credit metrics of 13.5% exceeded our downgrade threshold of 12% at Moody’s by 150 basis points. With our balanced funding strategy in place, we target credit metrics of 14% over the planning period, providing 100-200 basis points of financial flexibility on average over our downgrade thresholds at S&P and Moody’s throughout our guidance period. We also continue to advocate for language that incorporates all tax repairs for calculating the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax, which is now reflected in our disclosures.
As a reminder, without the implementation of tax repair deduction, our anticipated consolidated credit metrics would average over the plan closer to 13%. Supported by our history of execution, I want to close by reiterating our confidence, not only in the plan we have laid out, but also in the broader opportunity we have to deliver value for our customers and our shareholders for another 25 years and beyond. I’ll now turn it back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Thank you, Jeanne. As we look ahead to 2026, our priorities are clear and aligned with what matters most to our customers, communities, policymakers, and investors. We have a track record of meeting our commitments, and we will continue to focus on what we do best: executing our capital plan efficiently and maintaining industry-leading operational performance to benefit our customers, driving affordability through disciplined cost management, prudent investment, and active stakeholder engagement, and pursuing growth and innovative customer solutions. We have the right people, platform, and strategy to continue delivering on these commitments. In 2026, we expect to deploy $10 billion in capital, earning a consolidated 9%-10% operating return on equity. We anticipate delivering operating earnings of $2.81-$2.91 per share, with the goal of being midpoint or better.
And finally, we will execute a balanced funding strategy that maintains and strengthens our balance sheet. Serving approximately 11 million customers across some of the largest and most economically vital metropolitan areas in the country is a responsibility we do not take lightly. Our infrastructure is essential to the economic future of the regions we serve, and we honor that responsibility through disciplined execution, operational excellence, and a relentless focus on the people who depend on us every day. We are proud of our track record of execution. The sector continues to evolve at a breakneck pace, but Exelon remains steadfast in its priorities, consistently delivering as a proven leader. Gigi, we can now open it up for questions.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, simply press star one one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Good morning, Nick.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Hey, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst, Barclays: Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the updates. Appreciate it. So great to see the 5-7 outlook refresh near the upper end here. I think just maybe could you comment quickly on, you know, the rate-based growth is near 8%. You do have financing lag against that, you know, which maybe would be greater than 1% financing lag between equity needs and debt funding. So just what’s the tailwind to the plan to kind of keep you at the high end of the 5-7 outlook?
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: ...Yeah, I think I’ll start with kind of, you know, what we’ve done, right? Which is, if you look back since 2021, we’ve had actual rate base growth of about 8% and earnings growth of 7.4. So I think it’s really just a continuation of that track record. But if you look at where rate base is at the end of 2029, and you kind of assume, you know, half equity, and then you look at our earned ROEs over the last four years, I think you can get, you know, to an EPS number that then, to your point, you got to back off financing costs.
But I think if you look at kind of the equity needs, the sort of assume an average, you know, debt cost, but then I think what you might be missing is the AFUDC associated with transmission capital. And so if you look at that and how much we’re growing transmission over that period, that’ll get you to kind of the near top end, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst, Barclays: Okay, great. Great. And then I know that you probably are assuming a range of regulatory outcomes here, but maybe you can just kind of comment on, given so much focus on Pennsylvania, how you’re thinking about regulatory strategy for 2026, whether you’d file in 2026 or wait until 2027, and then any kind of considerations there for the timing of rate cases and how that can kind of impact where you are within this 5-7? Thank you.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Yeah, no problem, Nick. I will tell you this, is that we are constantly in conversations with all of our stakeholders, and that goes from the governors to the regulatory bodies, to talk about what makes sense to the jurisdictions and their our customers. And with affordability at front and center in all of our jurisdictions, we lean into that first. But we also recognize that we have to maintain a reliable and resilient grid. So to your point, we’re looking at what we are going to do in Pennsylvania and what we’re gonna do in Maryland. I think in our documents, we’ve already laid out that we’re filing in Maryland this year, and we’re considering what is the best approach to action in Pennsylvania. But we will keep you updated on that.
Right now, please keep in mind, everything centers on affordability and maintaining a reliable system.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Yeah, and to your point, Nick, the disclosure kind of accommodate a variety of scenarios. So looking at a variety of scenarios around rate case timing, we feel confident in that. You know, the 8% rate base growth, the earned ROEs, and the, you know, sort of manageable amount of equity, delivers that, you know, 5-7 near the top end.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst, Barclays: Great. And then just, you know, Calvin, if I could squeeze one more in, you talked about in your prepared remarks, just supply being a real challenge. And I know this RBA process is in its early innings at PJM, and we’ve all seen the comments from the IPPs and what they’re looking for, but just maybe what are the T&Ds advocating for here, and how do you see that process shaping up? Do you expect it to still be on time for, you know, a September auction? If you could comment at all there.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Do you want to take it?
Colette Honorable, Executive, Exelon: Certainly. Good morning, Nick. Thank you for the question. We’ve really been focused on engaging, not only at PJM, but with our regulators. We were really pleased to see the administration’s, to Calvin’s point, the administration’s focus on this issue. We do support the development of this reliability backstop option, and we really endeavored also to bring a bit of clarity to the discourse. That’s why we enlisted Charles River Associates’ support in helping us crystallize what we’re dealing with. We need to focus on supply because we know it will lower customer electric costs. We know that we will also see improved reliability.
To the point on costs, as Calvin mentioned, utility-generated power, which you know, is something we are very focused on, because if no one else is going to build, we know that supply costs are an ever-increasing portion of the customer bill. So we really have to be focused on driving more build. And as this report outlaid, utility-generated power could reduce PJM customer costs by between $9.6 billion and $20 billion in the 2028-2029 delivery year. So while we’re focused on supporting the RBA, we also have to, in the near term, focus on extending the price cap, getting more supply on the grid, and as Calvin mentioned, improving reliability. We know that those things will bring greater price stability and ultimately help address affordability, which is an ever-growing concern in each of our jurisdictions.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst, Barclays: Thanks for the updates.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Hey, Nick, I know she doesn’t need an introduction, but that was Colette Honorable. All right.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst, Barclays: Perfect. Thank you very much.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: You’re welcome.
Colette Honorable, Executive, Exelon: Thank you.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shar Puritza from Wells Fargo.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Good morning, Shar.
Colette Honorable, Executive, Exelon: Hey, Shar.
Shar Puritza, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Morning, Calvin. Morning, guys. Just on Colette’s, maybe a quick question for Colette. I mean, obviously, you know, there’s a lot of affordability things out there, whether you’re looking at Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware. We saw that in, obviously, Shapiro’s budget speech. There’s several bills out there in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey on resource adequacy. I guess a little bit more specifically, Colette, how are the conversations going on the legislative fronts? Like, can you strike a middle ground in a state like Pennsylvania with the IPPs around a new generation PPA structure, which is currently being proposed under the House and Senate bills, or are the conversations just too wide apart right now? Thanks.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Hey, Shar. So this is Calvin. I’ll jump in at first-
Shar Puritza, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Hey, Calvin.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: and just say, first and foremost, man, we understand where Governor Shapiro is coming from because we’re all frustrated with the affordability dilemma that’s hitting all of our customers and his constituents. So at the forefront, we start from a foundation of alignment, that we all have to do something together. And you notice our approach has always been an all-of-the-above approach. How can we help deliver solutions that satisfy everyone? So to your direct question, is there an opportunity to have conversations and engage with you? Absolutely, because we have never said we are going to do this on our own, but we do believe it must involve everyone. And I think you, you talked about Shapiro, but listen, Governor Moore, in his State of the State, even talked about an all-of-the-above.
It requires everyone to come together to solve this problem, and we are committed to that. So when you talk about the House and Senate bills, it’s always in the details, but please know that we’re showing up every day in the Capitol and with the government, the PSC, to talk about delivering solutions. And you notice from us, it’s not one or done, it’s everyone coming through, and it’s an all-of-the-above approach. Colette, anything you’d like to add there?
Colette Honorable, Executive, Exelon: Thank you, Calvin. Good morning, Shar. I would add, it will, I hope, put in better context why we showed up as a company the way we did around co-location issues. Co-location can be a great solution. We knew when we saw this headed our way, that we needed to focus on affordability. Now, you see others jumping in with us, it’s great to see, and we need these discussions because this is how we will solve the problem. We’ve been very active, to your question, Shar, not only in Pennsylvania, on the ground there, on the ground with the governor. As you know, we joined Governor Shapiro in the filing at FERC on extending the price cap.
We’ll continue to partner with him, his administration, and engage heavily in the legislature, not only in Pennsylvania, we’re having these same discussions in Maryland, in Delaware, in New Jersey. And I think that, for instance, in the address by Governor Moore, you could see very clearly he has a view on what needs to happen. Take a look at New Jersey, with Governor Sherrill stepping in and really focusing in on the solutions that need to come about in PJM. This is heartening to see, and you will continue to find us engaging in each of our jurisdictions, to help solve this issue of affordability. Let me close by saying, we’re bringing solutions. We’ve been focused, as you know, on our customer relief fund that we developed last year, and then we further supplemented it ahead of the winter season in anticipation of these issues.
Then we will continue focusing on low-income discounts in our jurisdictions. We have those well underway, and as well as focusing on longer-term solutions such as utility-owned generation. So we are very active in our jurisdictions and will continue to be active. Thank you.
Shar Puritza, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Is it fair to just assume that there is some level of collaboration with the generators, or is that a bit too far apart? So I’m just trying to piece that out.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: At the right price, right? Like, I think it’s we’re always-
Shar Puritza, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Okay.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Gonna be our customer advocates. So I think right now, what’s the problem, right? Right now, our customers are paying more for less, and so we got to get to the right place where there’s actual new generation at the right price. If they want to build it at the right price, wonderful, right? But at the end of the day, to collect on Calvin’s comments, that the Charles River report was really helpful because it said, you know, if we had been doing this and we had the generation needed for 2029, that you know, cost would have been, you know, $10 billion-$20 billion lower. We can’t go back in time and build that generation, but we can take action now, and that’s what we’re focused on, is getting the generation built at the right price.
Shar Puritza, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Got it. And then just a last question here, just to tease out, Nick’s question around the CAGR. There’s not a lot of delta between rate base growth and the EPS growth, so that sort of makes sense where you are. But I mean, Jeanne, clearly from the slides this morning, there’s plenty of incremental upsides, whether you’re looking at, you know, PJM, RTEP or MISO tranches, data center TSAs, resource adequacy. I guess, what’s the correct podium to step function change the trajectory, which has been out there for some time? Is it as it could be as simple as we need a few more quarters to execute. I guess, how do we sort of think about the upsides that, that are evident on these slide decks, whether. And it will be incremental to rate base growth, it’ll be incremental to EPS growth.
I guess, what do you need to see the step function change that 5-7? Thanks.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Yeah, no, good question, and I think, at the end, we feel like it is kind of progressing, right? So last rate base CAGR was 7.4%. We’re sitting at 7.9 now. Off of that 7.4, you know, we delivered above expectations through 2025. So I think we are seeing continued progress there. I think, you know, given the deconcentrated plan, in addition to progress, it’s really executable. We, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we’ve delivered within our capital within 2% since separation. And you look at our rate base this year within 1%. That’s no small task on $64 billion of rate base. So we feel not only is it really executable, we should feel confident in that growth, but it is continuing to progress.
Like, we’re not gonna be the flashy, right, it’s gonna go up double digits, but it’s gonna—it’s going up and it’s highly executable, defensible, and we’re not gonna give you a number that I can’t sit here and say that. So I think that’s how we should think about it.
Shar Puritza, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Okay. Yeah, that’s actually a perfect answer. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Congrats, Calvin. Bye.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Thank you, Shar. Appreciate you.
Colette Honorable, Executive, Exelon: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Jefferies.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Morning, Paul.
Mike Innocenzo, Chief Operating Officer, Exelon: ... Hi, good morning, team. Kudos. Nicely done.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Thank you.
Mike Innocenzo, Chief Operating Officer, Exelon: To continue the theme a little bit from Nick and Shar, just almost asking in inverse. It seems like rate-based growth is pretty consistent with historical the 7.9, and you did grow at 7.4, despite some headwinds in Illinois and elsewhere, and of course, tailwinds, too. Why could you not grow at that kind of zip code, the same 7.5% growth rate? Again, you doing even better than the top end. Like, is it kind of the conservatism like you were mentioning or just getting more comfort? If you could elaborate a little bit more.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Sure. I mean, I think, you know, we’re always going to strive to exceed expectations, but I think, again, giving you a number you can count on. I think, you know, financing costs are increasing, right? So you’ve got to account for that. But, you know, we are investing more in transmission, and so that gives us confidence in the, you know, that we can continue with the strong earned ROEs that we’ve had. So I think, you know, I think it’s defensible. It is growing, I think, you know, but you’ve got to think about giving a number that’s defensible, that we can manage, but also accounts for the associated financing costs. But we’re always going to strive to exceed your expectations, Paul.
Mike Innocenzo, Chief Operating Officer, Exelon: No, and you have been so. If you give a mouse a cookie, you always have to ask for more. But, the-
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: I noticed that, Paul. Thank you.
Mike Innocenzo, Chief Operating Officer, Exelon: The last one I wanted to ask, just on the incremental financing cost. So you definitely made a lot of progress on the balance sheet. How should we think about financing incremental capital opportunities as they come? Should we be using kind of that 40% in this roll forward-
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Yeah.
Mike Innocenzo, Chief Operating Officer, Exelon: or maybe a lower number?
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: No, it’s the 40%. We want to maintain and you know keep that cushion we’ve worked so hard to get on the balance sheet. So what that results in is about the $3.4 billion over the 4-year period. On an annual basis, it’s less than 2% of market cap, very manageable. And as you probably saw, we’ve already made good progress on that. So we’ve priced $700 million of that $3.4 billion. So on an annual basis for 2026, you know, it’s a small amount to do. And given our ATM and our trading activities, it’s very manageable. But we’re gonna stick with that 40%.
Mike Innocenzo, Chief Operating Officer, Exelon: Okay. Thank you very much, team.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Thank you, Paul.
Gigi, Event Specialist: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will be from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: Hey, good morning. So just, maybe just on the with the move to, to more transmission, continuing that 9%-10% earned ROE range, are we seeing some kind of movement up within that range that helps kind of put all these pieces together on the, on the growth rate?
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Yeah, I think, you know, again-
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: Yeah.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Yeah, yeah. If we go back to, I think, since separation, 2022-2025, our average earned has been somewhere around 9.4. To your point, as we have been turning the ship towards transmission, I think you can expect that, if not slightly better, but it’s going to take some time for some of these, you know, transmission projects to close. We’ve got some longer-dated ones, the big ones. Well, that’s the direction we’re headed.
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: Okay. Okay, and then on the CAMT, that you mentioned, just when, when do you expect to actually have that, like, full clarity on that? Sometime this... Sounds like sometime this year?
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Yes, yes. We are hopeful that we have a final, final resolution here in the near term.
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: Okay. And then lastly, just tying up some loose state stuff that, are we still going to get a Maryland lessons learned at some point? Or, yeah, is there any chance they just say, kind of we’re moved on to-
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: No-
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: I don’t know. Yeah.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Yeah. Steve, I hear in your voice my frustration, so thank you. It is... We do believe we’re going to get a lessons learned, and I know the team has been talking to the commission and the new chair, who we’ve worked with as a former state senator, and he understands the need for this. So we do believe we’ll get a lessons learned, and I wish I could give you a timeline, but we do believe it will happen in 2026.
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: Okay. But you’ll file BGE, you know, probably before you get it?
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Yes.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: Yes.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Yes.
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: Yeah. Okay.
Jeanne Jones, Chief Financial Officer, Exelon: We’re going to file the, probably the first half and, and, you know, would love to accommodate whatever’s in there. But, but to Calvin’s point, we’ve been, you know, transparent with the commission around, you know, the fact that the rates expire in 2027, is that we have to do something here.
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: And then a last quick one. I know New Jersey is not your, one of your larger states, but just curious, your take so far under the new governor.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Absolutely. Not to your point, not one of our largest, but it’s very important. And Tyler Anthony, the CEO of Pepco Holdings, has spent time with the other EDCs, with Governor Sherrill. Mike Innocenzo, our Chief Operating Officer, spent time, and I’ll let Mike elaborate further on New Jersey, if you would like to, Mike.
Mike Innocenzo, Chief Operating Officer, Exelon: Yeah, I would just say, you know, it’s, you know, it’s certainly got a lot of headlines during the election campaign, but if you look at the content of the executive orders, we think that they’re very constructive. They’re things that we can live with. And I would say behind the scenes, the conversations are focused on the right areas, which is, you know, if we’re really going to go after affordability, we need to bring more supply in an affordable way and an efficient way. And we fully support those discussions.
Steve Fleishman, Analyst, Wolfe: Great. Thank you.
Calvin Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer, Exelon: Thank you, Steve.
Gigi, Event Specialist: Thank you. Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.