Ardmore Shipping Q4 2025 / FY2025 Earnings Call - Spot-led TCE surge and low break-even give Ardmore optionality to harvest layered ton-mile tailwinds

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: All right. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Ardmore Shipping’s 2026 Investor Day, during which we will also be covering the company’s results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. I’m Brian Degnan with IGB Group. Just a few administrative points before we get underway today. The event is being recorded and broadly distributed via live webcast, which, along with today’s slides, is accessible at ardmoreshipping.com. An audio replay of the event will be available on the website from later today. The standard earnings press release was issued pre-market this morning and is also available on the website. Turning to slide 2. Later in the event, following the prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session, at which point we will take questions from the people with us in the room today.

For those joining remotely, please feel free to submit any questions that you might have at any time to [email protected]. That’s [email protected]. Throughout the event, and for the benefit of those joining remotely, we’d ask that all of you, please be sure to use the microphones, as you’re asking your questions. Turning to slide three. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings release. Slide four, please. Moving to slide four, I’d like to introduce you to the members of the Ardmore leadership team, whom we’ll have the pleasure of hearing from today.

We have Curtis McWilliams, Ardmore’s Chair of the Board, Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Bart Kelleher, President, and James Fok, Independent Non-Executive Director. We also have a number of other members of the extended Ardmore management team sitting amongst you in the crowd today, so hopefully you’ll take the opportunity after our formal agenda to spend some time with them as well. And with that, I would ask Curtis McWilliams, Chair of the Board, to please join us on stage to provide today’s opening remarks.

Curtis McWilliams, Chair of the Board, Ardmore Shipping: Thank you, Brian. Good afternoon. On behalf of the Ardmore Board, as well as the senior management team, let me once again welcome you to Ardmore’s Annual Investor Day lunch. Last year, in my opening remarks, you may recall I talked about change: changes in the geopolitical situations around the globe, changes in the administration here in the United States, and even closer to home, changes in our own senior management team with the retirement of Anthony Gurnee and the elevation of Gernot as CEO and Bart as President of Ardmore. While change is candidly a constant in all our lives, Ardmore’s board and senior management team remains focused on a few key strategic principles which have not and will not change. As you will hear this afternoon, Ardmore is focused squarely on the future.

We remain committed to performance and progress, to transactions which leverage our scalable platform, to innovation, to our well-articulated capital allocation policy, and to thoughtful and transparent governance. With respect to the importance of governance, as Nelson Mandela once noted, "The time is always right to do right." In addition to Gernot and Bart speaking this afternoon, I’m pleased that my fellow director, James Fok, is joining us and will be providing his thoughts on macro global trade trends. With the rise of China in the Pacific Rim and its impact on the shipping sector, James’ unique perspective has been incredibly helpful to our board. I am sure you will find his comments both compelling and thoughtful. Again, I want to thank you for your continued support of Ardmore. As a board and management team, we remain fully committed to being faithful stewards of your investment.

With that, now let me welcome up Gernot and Bart, who will commence their review.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Thank you, Curtis, and welcome. We are delighted you could join us today for an update on another great year for Ardmore. For those of you who are new in the audience, slide 5 gives you a snapshot of our company. Ardmore is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and strong governance remains fundamental to who we are. It shapes the way we make decisions, our business principles, and our values. We own and operate a fleet of product and chemical tankers, and through a fully integrated global platform, we actively trade a wide range of liquid cargoes, from mainstream refined oil products to complex specialized chemicals, edible oils, and biofuels. Our performance-driven culture and our commitment to constantly innovate enable us to maximize earnings across markets and cycles. Moving to slide 6, here’s the outline of today’s presentation.

At the start, I will briefly guide you through our earnings highlights. Then Bart and I will move on to the Investor Day section, starting with external market fundamentals, followed by a business update and a deeper dive into some of the key performance drivers. Thereafter, James will share his perspectives on major themes in our macro environment, the broader geopolitical landscape, and implications for Ardmore. Then we will open up the meeting for questions. Turning first to slide 7 for earnings highlights... We are pleased to report another successful year for Ardmore. Underlying market conditions have continued to be very favorable. On top of strong ton-mile demand, we see considerable disruption and a very robust earnings environment. Our TCE performance reflects this continued strength, as you can see in the chart on the right. Quarter-on-quarter growth throughout 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026.

Rates are currently edging towards levels three times our break even. Our MR tankers earned $25,300 per day for the fourth quarter, and $29,100 per day so far in the first quarter, with 50% booked. Our chemical tankers earned $19,900 per day for the fourth quarter and $20,800 per day for the first quarter, with 30% booked so far. Regardless of the market we are in, we remain committed to tight cost management, and we have achieved a cash break even of $11,700 per day, or excluding CapEx, $10,800 per day. This enables us to be both opportunistic and resilient, positioning Ardmore to perform strongly throughout market cycles. Moving to slide eight.

Adjusted earnings were $38.8 million or $0.95 per share for the full year and $11.6 million or $0.28 per share for the fourth quarter. We continue to execute on our long-standing capital allocation policy, and we’ve declared another quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share, consistent with our policy of paying out one-third of adjusted earnings. We just completed a major dry docking cycle, which also included significant performance upgrades to our fleet, and last year, we bought 3 modern, fuel-efficient MR tankers at an opportune time. These have appreciated in value by 15% since. In addition to the company’s strong footing in the spot market at 82%, we enhanced earnings quality with selective, high-quality, fixed-rate time charters. Just recently, we fixed a twenty-two hundred...

We fixed a 2013-built MR on a 1-year time charter at a rate of $26,000 per day. Moving to Slide 9, where we highlight our continued focus on financial strength. As previously announced, after refinancing our bank debt at favorable terms, we fully redeemed our remaining $30 million of preferred shares, further reducing our cash break even. As we will cover in more detail, Ardmore remains focused on optimizing performance, closely managing cost, and preserving a strong balance sheet. Turning to Slide 10 for financial highlights. Ardmore’s strong operating leverage positions us to take immediate advantage of market shifts. As an approximate rule of thumb, for every $10,000 per day in additional TCE, our annual earnings would increase by close to $2 per share.

This quarter, we’re reporting EBITDA of $27 million for the quarter and $95 million for the year, and we continue to frame this as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. A full reconciliation is presented in the appendix alongside our first quarter guidance numbers. This concludes the earnings portion of the presentation. We now move on to the Investor Day section, starting with Bart, who will take us through the market outlook.

Bart Kelleher, President, Ardmore Shipping: Thanks, Gernot. Starting with Slide 12, where we discuss the long-term demand fundamentals. Dislocation of oil refineries remains an enduring trend. Refining and petrochemical production capacity has been shifting east, and at the same time, tightening regional supply in the West is pushing buyers to source for more distant export hubs, extending voyage lengths, driving ton miles, and lifting fleet utilizations. In addition, the latest long-term forecasts point to an increased focus on energy security, slower energy transition, reinforcing expectations for sustained oil demand. Moving to Slide 13. Looking at the chart on the top right, favorable margins and rising oil consumption are driving heavy refinery throughput. At the same time, ever-evolving geopolitical disruption continues to reshape trade routes and extend voyage distances. Good example of this is shown on the chart in the bottom left.

Not only is there a ban by the EU on Russian diesel, but refined products derived from Russian crude oil have also now been banned. Refined product flows that once originated from Turkey are now being replaced by cargoes from the U.S., representing a more than threefold increase in relative voyage length. In addition, more recent events in Venezuela have already begun redirecting existing Venezuelan crude oil toward the U.S. Gulf, boosting refinery throughput. This will further support product exports from the region. These are just a few of the layers of the continually evolving tanker demand landscape. Moving to Slide 14, where we examine how increased sanctions enforcement is tightening supply and benefiting the compliant fleet. The chart on the left shows that over 16% of the global tanker fleet is currently subjected to sanctions…

A step up in enforcement is making it increasingly difficult for these vessels to trade. As shown in the chart on the right, this is further encouraging additional vessels to join the dark fleet. Taken together, about 30% of the global fleet, and growing, is operating outside mainstream trades, tightening available supply and boosting utilization for compliant tanker fleets, such as ours. This trend is poised to accelerate, with the potential for India to replace Russian oil with non-sanctioned alternatives, further benefiting compliant tanker fleet at large. We’ll further examine this in a few slides, but it’s important to note that these tend to be older vessels that would have a very difficult time returning to the mainstream fleet. For one, this is simply due to their history of trading in the shadows, but more practically, and as reported across industry sources, the maintenance standard is alarming.

Moving to slide 15. Here’s a trend we’ve highlighted in the past: LR2 is exiting the clean product trades and moving into the crude market. There are a few key dynamics at play here. Aframaxes are the crude tanker equivalents of LR2s. The order book for these Aframaxes is marginal. Therefore, the LR2 order book is effectively replacing the crude Aframax deficit. At the same time, geopolitical dynamics are driving trading activity in crude markets overall, which has an additional positive impact on the Aframax segment. The trend of the LR2 fleet migrating to crude continues to play out, as depicted in the chart on the left, with an additional 10% trading in crude this year. This shift has been driven by evolving geopolitical events, leading to higher volumes of crude on the water. One of the many examples is the recent disruption in Venezuela.

Restoring Venezuelan crude exports to the U.S. would quadruple Aframax needs for this trade. Turning to slide 16. Here, we revisit the aging MR fleet. The chart on the left provides a clear visual of how the MR fleet has evolved over time. Focusing on the green quadrant, today’s fleet is the oldest this century, and with an average age of almost 15 years. Now, moving to the chart on the right, the portion of the MR fleet approaching the scrapping window dwarfs the current order book by a magnitude of 4. It’s important to note, even if these vessels are not initially scrapped, their utilization level notably declines as they turn 20. So while the market’s experiencing an increase in deliveries this year, there is a significant buffer of older, less efficient vessels. These potential scrapping candidates represent an inherent mechanism for market buoyancy. Turning to slide 17.

Expanding on the point just made, the tanker industry is subjected to rigid safety, environmental, and regulatory scrutiny, as well as high compliance standards by international law and oil major customers. Naturally, older tankers are increasingly marginalized by top-tier charterers. Enhanced diligence standards discourage employment of higher risk and/or non-compliant tonnage. These charts depict how this aging fleet is less utilized. The chart on the right highlights how utilization declines below 50%, thus benefiting younger vessels, including Ardmore’s fleet. With that, I’d like to hand it back to Gernot to to turn to the business update.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Thanks, Bart. Let’s start with an overview of our strategy on slide 19. Ardmore’s strategy is clear and well-defined. We are a global owner and operator of product and chemical tankers, with a strong focus on capturing opportunities where refined oil products and more complex chemical cargoes overlap. Ardmore Shipping Corporation is a fully integrated and aligned company, which includes our highly regarded trading platform. Our shoreside team works around the clock from three strategic locations in close coordination with our seafaring colleagues on board a modern, fuel-efficient fleet to safely execute the business of Ardmore’s top-tier customers. We have a long-standing capital allocation policy, which is well-matched to our strategy, our through-the-cycle approach, and ultimately to creating long-term value. Our focus on performance drives ongoing innovation across the organization, from efficiency-enhancing upgrades to our ships and machinery, to AI-driven voyage optimization tools and everyday business processes.

Always purposeful and application-oriented in order to deliver tangible, commercial, and operational results. Importantly, we maintain best-in-class corporate governance standards, which are fundamental to everything we do and who we are as a business. Turning to slide 20. Asset flexibility is a core strategic advantage for Ardmore. Our fleet of MR product and chemical tankers is designed to operate across a wide range of complex cargoes and regional markets, giving us the ability to adapt quickly as trading conditions evolve. Instead of a singular focus on refined products or chemicals, Ardmore deliberately covers the full spectrum. This enables us to compete effectively and interchangeably in both segments and capture value across market cycles. We have specific examples for this later. Slide 21 reintroduces a concept which is core to our belief: integrating performance and progress. The success of this philosophy is reflected here.

Performance, both absolute and relative, is crucial to us, and we track our performance through a range of objective measures. Our entire team is incentivized on the basis of these measures. Shown here as a key factor, our TCE result of about $25,000 per day. Next box. Our discipline focus on cost, combined with low leverage, has resulted in a historically low cash break-even of $11,700 per day, or excluding CapEx, $10,800 per day. Through this performance focus, we have been able to return a significant level of capital to our shareholders, equivalent to 26% of our market cap since the end of 2022. Moving to the bottom of the page, the progress section. Industry-leading governance ensures discipline, transparency, and alignment throughout the organization, and long-term focus on shareholder value.

Our innovation mindset is at the center of everything we do. Every cargo, every voyage, and every decision offer opportunity to optimize outcomes and maximize value. More of that later. None of this would be possible without creating the right culture to drive both progress and, with that, performance. Our people are at the core of this effort, especially our seafarers. We have worked hard to create a rewarding and respectful work environment, which includes direct and personal engagement with our onboard leadership and broader participation in industry bodies, such as INTERTANKO and the Mission to Seafarers. All this is part of what we consider our responsibility as a leadership team and indeed, what Ardmore has always stood for. These are some of the tenets of our operating philosophy, and now bringing it back to performance, they are at the foundation of our strong operating results.

Now, one could question: does operating efficiency matter when it’s the market making the headlines? We absolutely believe yes. Performance focus will continue to deliver value in perpetuity across all market conditions. On slide 22, we summarize our capital allocation policy and how we have dynamically addressed our priorities. 2025 was an active year, which we will cover in this section. At a high level, we expanded our fleet, we invested in various efficiency upgrades, we managed responsible leverage levels, all while continuing to distribute capital to our shareholders throughout. Let’s take a closer look. On slide 23, you can see the continued payment of dividend streams, and as I stated upfront, we are paying our thirteenth quarterly cash dividend since reinitiation in Q4 2022. Moving to slide 24. We completed an intensive dry docking program during 2025, which impacted nearly half of our fleet.

On the flip side, this means we have very limited dockings for 2026 and 2027, about 10% of the fleet across two years. We naturally expect revenue days to increase accordingly, and with that, earnings power. In line with that, we forecast a significant reduction in fleet CapEx for 2026, approximately $5 million, compared with $30 million in 2025. The last bullet here is something we almost take for granted, but it’s worth highlighting. We had near perfect on-hire availability for the year as a result of the quality of our assets and the continued close coordination of our teams at sea and on shore. To my earlier point, also here, progress meets business performance. On slide 25, we’re providing a visual of a key element of the upgrade package we executed this past year.

In line with the mandatory drydocking schedule of our chemical tankers, we upgraded the cargo tank coatings on all of them, thereby increasing cargo versatility and expanding revenue opportunities. We are already realizing early returns exceeding our expectations, with some recent voyages delivering TCE premiums of up to $6,000 per day, in addition to some guaranteed operational benefits and fuel savings. Slide 26. Here you can see these new advanced cargo tank coatings in action. The green lines on this map reflect the voyages carrying cargo, or you could say, making money, and the black lines show when the ship was empty, so essentially just burning fuel. And you look at this and you wonder, where are the black lines? The vessel did remain laden for nearly a full year. Expressed in dollars, the resulting TCE is $22,700 per day.

This was in line with MR earnings at that time, but achieved by a smaller chemical tanker. That is a prime example of why we believe that in the right hands, chemical tankers with advanced coatings represent economically superior assets. Turning to slide 27, where we quickly spotlight the timely expansion of our fleet. As you can see here, our acquisitions last year were well-timed. The blue line represents Clarksons’ published five-year MR price index. You can see the compelling relative value of our transactions in green, both at the time of transacting and also in hindsight.... We achieved this by leveraging a period of considerable uncertainty in the marketplace and by leveraging our strong track record as a reliable counterparty. In a nutshell, clear execution, closely in sync with market swings, guided by a disciplined long-term approach to building value in a cyclical industry. Turning to slide 28.

Ardmore continues to trade predominantly in the spot market, with 82% market exposure. At the same time, we managed to layer in some high-quality time charters at attractive rates to fortify our earnings, our earnings portfolio. You can see this here. It goes without saying that these are all with top-rated counterparties. Moving to slide 29, where we highlight low cash break-even levels and favorable leverage. In 2025, we refinanced our existing debt facilities at attractive terms into a $350 million fully revolving credit facility. We also fully redeemed the remaining $30 million of our preferred shares. Our leverage levels reflect our strategy to create value through the cycle, providing resilience and capacity to pursue opportunities in a patient and disciplined manner. And with that, back over to Bart.

Bart Kelleher, President, Ardmore Shipping: Turning to slide 31, where we take a look at our global trading operation. This is a key snapshot of our vast commercial universe, covered efficiently from three key locations: Houston, Ireland, and Singapore. As you can see here, we’re servicing a wide, high-quality customer base across the world. Turning to slide 32. As we’ve emphasized, having flexible assets and a highly skilled organization are key competitive advantages for Ardmore. Our team and fleet can handle a wide range of cargoes, from mainstream refined products to significantly more complex chemical cargoes, and various layers in between. This is not for everyone in the industry. It requires a strong culture matched with deep technical and commercial expertise, both ashore and on board. We believe that this is an important differentiator for Ardmore and our performance.

Turning to slide 33, where we set the backdrop of evolving regional trade routes, in this case, in the Atlantic market, before we get to some more specific Ardmore vessel trading examples. The maps illustrate three distinct phases of how traditional point-to-point routes between the U.S. and Europe have evolved into far more complex, multi-directional trade flows. Shifts in refining activity, cargo sourcing, and regional imbalances, plus constantly fluctuating arbitrage, have created new patterns across West Africa and South America, extending voyage combinations across the Atlantic Basin. Ardmore’s fully integrated platform and fleet of highly versatile tankers enables us to navigate and capitalize on these emerging trade routes, driving TCE performance. Turning to slide 34, bringing it to life for the Ardmore fleet. A great example of how we capture new trading opportunities, maximizing revenue days, and enhancing earnings performance.

In this case, the vessel achieved a TCE of over $32,000 a day for a period of 136 days. These trade routes are constantly in flux, which requires a very nimble and connected footing in the market. On to slide 35, switching oceans to the Pacific. This example highlights how refinery closures are driving significantly longer haul voyages. The recent shuttering of 2 refineries in California has enhanced product arbitrage from large-scale refineries in the East, resulting in substantial long-haul transpacific voyages. Here, this vessel had been seamlessly trading in the Asian markets, and then later in the US Gulf, connected by a very lucrative 60-day voyage from India, carrying gasoline into the US West Coast. Earnings: $32,000 per day over 117 days.

While we can’t highlight every voyage, this should give you a feel for how our global trading platform, versatile fleet, and company culture create value. Turning now to slide 36. How can we make things more efficient, better, faster, safer every time we do them? Innovation sits at the core of Ardmore’s culture, shaping everything we do, both on board and ashore. We’ll share a few examples to bring this commitment to life. Turning to slide 37. On our ships across the Ardmore fleet, from the top of the bridge to the bottom of the engine room and extending to our shoreside teams, we continue to deploy cutting-edge technologies that reduce fuel consumption and boost operational performance. We’ve been casting a wide net, reviewing hundreds of solutions, and we ultimately select and implement the most promising, many of which have already delivered outsized returns, including some exceeding 100%.

Let’s have a look at some specific examples. On slide 38, we take a deeper dive into our innovative approach to hull performance. Fuel is our largest expense, typically accounting for around two-thirds of voyage cost. And while you come out of the dry dock with a clean hull, if you don’t take proactive measures, fuel consumption can increase significantly. Over a 5-year docking cycle, earnings erosion can be substantial. By deploying advanced hull coatings, onboard sensors, and timely proactive in-water hull cleanings, we maintain peak vessel performance. As shown in the chart on the top right, these practices place Ardmore in the best-in-class quartile versus a global fleet, which experiences significant hull and earnings degradation across docking cycles. But we’re not resting here. We’re continuing to push the efficiency frontier. Ardmore is presently trialing autonomous hull-cleaning robots that offer promising returns in the 60%-70% range.

Using a hull-cleaning robot is literally like brushing your teeth. You start with a clean hull coming out of the dry dock, and then your resident robot continuously and smartly cleans the ship’s hull, just like your daily routine of brushing your teeth. Turning now to slide 39, which highlights Ardmore’s approach to utilizing the latest AI-driven technology to optimize voyages. Over the past several years, our focus has been on adopting best-in-class technology. Using an ecosystem of integrated solutions, this approach enables us to scale quickly, stay flexible, and capture efficiency gains as soon as they become available. Every voyage contains multiple decision points: speed, routing, weather, commercial market conditions, and fuel pricing. Having real-time data and the ability to react to changing conditions ensures we’re capturing all we can and not leaving anything on the table when it comes to fuel consumption.

This system continues to yield significant savings, with returns exceeding 100%. Turning to slide 40. While we regularly speak about our efforts utilizing AI onboard our vessels, we take an identical approach shoreside. As AI and Agentic AI continue to evolve, there are abundant off-the-shelf tools available, and we selectively trial and integrate the most promising into our platform to augment our organizational capabilities. So to wrap up this section, bringing it back to our core operating philosophy and our approach to innovation, we’re executing this pragmatic approach, organizationally positioning us at the forefront of what’s possible and thereby driving returns in all markets. With that, I hand it back to Gernot.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Let’s move to slide 41. Here we highlight our commitment to best-in-class corporate governance. Ardmore received, once again, the honor of being the top-ranked tanker company in the latest edition of Weber’s Corporate Governance Scorecard. Guided by our highly experienced board of directors, all well-regarded leaders in their respective fields, we recognize that robust corporate governance is central to achieving long-term success. Important to note also that Ardmore Shipping Corporation and all its business activities are fully aligned and integrated under the public company umbrella. Turning to slide 42. This matrix gives you a quick snapshot of the depth and breadth that our board brings to our company across a wide range of essential fields. The Ardmore board operates to the latest quality governance practices that are constantly reviewed and refreshed.

Our diverse and international board has a robust and healthy debate culture, including on matters of strategy, opportunity, and risk. Corporate responsibility is seen as a hands-on opportunity for positive impact on our business and its people, ultimately enhancing value creation. There’s ongoing board interaction with our teams during company and ship visits. For us, this is not a mere compliance exercise. It is rooted in our belief that a strong and high-performing board is key to value creation in the long run. Turning to slide 44. So speaking of the board, we thought it would be a great idea to give you first-hand experience. No pressure, James. I’m extremely pleased to ask one of our board members, James Fok, to join us on stage and to share some insights on broader macro themes.

James does not come from a maritime background, which is refreshing. He brings with him over 25 years of experience as a financial and strategic advisor. James has deep expertise in Asian and cross-border capital markets transactions. His global perspective and pulse on international markets make him exceptionally well-positioned to speak to the broader trends shaping today’s world. Please join me in welcoming James.

James Fok, Independent Non-Executive Director, Ardmore Shipping: Thanks, Gernot, for that very kind introduction, and good afternoon to all of you who’ve joined us here at Pen Club today and online. If we can turn to page 45, please. I’ve served on the board of Ardmore for a little bit over three years now, and it has been a pleasure to be involved with a company with such a culture of performance and one of strong strategic execution. But sometimes sound strategy and execution are not enough. The reality is that the company will be affected by circumstances beyond our control that will affect our operating environment and our financial performance. To the extent that we’re able, the Ardmore board, in partnership with management, try to keep an eye on macro themes that are likely to affect our risk and opportunity going forward.

Today I’m gonna talk about three of these themes, namely the geopolitical environment, technology shifts, and global liquidity. If we can turn to page 46, please. Geopolitical risks ranked first and second this year on the World Economic Forum’s Risk Perception Survey. The resurgence of geopolitics has created a significantly more complex operating environment for both investors and corporate managements, who most often don’t have relevant experience or frames of reference to deal with these issues. The supply chain shocks highlighted by COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and the trade war, have led to a fundamental reevaluation of supply chain security. The old mantra of just in time has been replaced by just in case, and formerly capital-light business models are having to confront the issue of dealing with strategic redundancy and higher levels of inventory.

As industries and processes are repatriated or friendshored in the name of national security, we’re, we’re also seeing a de-emphasis of ESG goals. And as Western countries re-industrialize, this is gonna impact financial returns for Wall Street. What’s more, as governments look to drive investment into strategic or favored sectors, we’re also quite likely to see a diminution in capital mobility going forward. If we can turn forward to page 47. Notwithstanding the trade war narrative, over the last few years, we’ve seen a continued trend up in the total size of, or total value of global trade. Those trade patterns are changing, and this is highlighted significantly by the change in China’s trade counterparties over the past two decades, that which is shown on the right-hand side of the slide here.

Over that period, the total value of China’s trade has increased by more than four times to $6.4 trillion last year. Over that time, trade with the United States has continued to grow, but the U.S.’s share of that trade has fallen from 15% to 9%. Meanwhile, what we’ve seen is that China’s trade with ASEAN countries has increased from 10% to 17% of its total, and the trade with the Global South has increased from around 30% to around 40%. As Bart mentioned earlier, we’ve seen a significant shift in refining locations across the petroleum products industry. As we look forward to these national security concerns that are being highlighted, we expect to see a continued shift in the locations of processing for key commodities.

Notwithstanding, we believe that players like Ardmore that are nimble and global will be able to manage and prosper in this more complex environment. Turning forward to page 48, and technology. The major theme of the past several years has, of course, been artificial intelligence. We believe that artificial intelligence is a transformative technology, and that it will drive significant productivity improvements across a wide range of industries. That being said, what we are also observing is that there is a significant divergence in the investment approaches to AI, which is perhaps most easily encapsulated in the consumer model that has raised a huge amount of capital here in the United States, and the industrial model, which has been more aggressively pursued in countries like China.

In a report published last year, Bain calculated that using a $20 per month subscription model for ChatGPT, in order to justify the total amount of investment that is going into AI, you would need to have 8.33 billion active subscribers. That is versus a total present global population of just 8.16 billion people. The fact is that the risks of capital misallocation and capital loss are very real, notwithstanding the fact that we still believe AI will bring substantial benefits in many areas. In Ardmore’s approach to innovation, while the board has been very encouraging of continued investment innovation, we’re also very careful to ensure that each CapEx initiative is scrutinized carefully to ensure that the expected IRR justifies the investment that’s being put into it. Can we turn to page 49, please?

As Bart touched on, a lot of the focus of Ardmore’s investment is into driving greater fuel economy, and this is something that I believe the board will continue to support. That being said, as the technology landscape evolves and we see that centers of innovation are evolving from those established ones to new ones, we also need to be conscious that we need to cast a very wide eye in ensuring that we’re capturing the best and most relevant technologies for us. And in this, I think that, with regards to, in terms of our technology kind of focus is that if you take my business, for example, in market infrastructure, if you go back 20 years ago, the dominant technology providers in the industry were primarily US and European players.

What we saw over time was that there was an emergence of various Indian technology providers, which were able to produce similar quality at significantly lower cost. More recently, what we’ve observed in our industry is that some of the Chinese vendors are now producing not just lower cost technologies, but they’re also producing superior technologies. But the takeaway for us here at Ardmore is simply that in order to remain globally competitive, we need to look for technologies and keep abreast of technology developments on a global basis. Can we turn to page 50, please? In recent years, we’ve operated in a very benign liquidity environment. Since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, we’ve seen significant increases in the level of government indebtedness across virtually every major economy.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that in order to finance ongoing deficits and to refinance maturing debt, the U.S. federal government, between now and 2030, is gonna have to issue between $22 trillion and $27 trillion of bonds. On top of that, if you look at Western reindustrialization, if you look at the AI-related CapEx spending, if you look at the infrastructure spending that’s gonna be required to replace obsolete infrastructure, you are going to see significant demands for capital. Allianz has estimated that the energy transition alone over the next 10 years is gonna require between $26 trillion and $30 trillion of CapEx. What does all of this mean? What it means is that the financing environment is likely to get significantly tougher.

At Ardmore, the board and management are laser-focused on ensuring that we maintain adequate liquidity and also that we ensure that we have access to diverse sources of funding. To give you a little flavor of some of the things that we, we’ve been looking at, if you turn to the next slide, page 51. I’m just gonna touch very briefly on the offshore renminbi bond markets and developments there. This is a market that I’ve personally been very closely involved with in recent years. Over the past several years, as renminbi interest rates have fallen below U.S. dollar interest rates, you have seen an explosion in new issuance in the offshore renminbi bond market. You’re also seeing many more international issuers flocking to that market.

Last year, Chinese regulators made a relaxation to allow more onshore Chinese investors to invest in that offshore market. And with that, what we have seen is an increase in the term maturity in that bond market, and we’re also seeing significant opportunities for international issuers to capture funding costs advantages that arise from time to time, even after the cost of swapping back into U.S. dollars. Typically, it is a range between about 20 and 60 basis points. While this is obviously very early days still, this is something that we’re gonna continue to keep an eye on, and we’re also gonna keep an eye on developments in liquidity sources happening elsewhere. To summarize and conclude, the geopolitical environment is no doubt creating a more complex operating require, operating environment for us.

That said, if you look back historically, market fragmentation has tended to drive higher arbitrage spreads, which for players that are able to be nimble and operate across a number of different markets, the opportunities can be very, very significant. So from Ardmore’s perspective, if we continue to invest in our efficiency and we continue to maintain strong liquidity and strong access to finance, we believe that the company will be very, very well positioned, notwithstanding the greater complexity in the operating environment.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Thank you, James, for sharing your insights. Really appreciate it. And just to note, for everybody in the audience, James will be with us also during the Q&A section, and is, you know, welcoming any of your questions, of course. But just allow me to kinda take these comments now and mirror them back from the Ardmore lens, what key implications are for our business. At a high level, the forces that James described here resonate strongly with what we see play out day to day in our markets, and what we also described, of course, in the earlier part of the presentation during the market section.

Geopolitics continue to reshape trade flows and create ongoing disruption, reinforcing the importance of flexibility in our commercial approach, as well as the strategic importance of tanker assets in general. Second, innovation must remain central to everything we do, and we leverage the company’s vast network of technology providers across the globe, which we continuously seek to expand, therefore, you know, to keep pushing the productivity frontier. And maintaining financial flexibility is essential. It ensures that we can navigate uncertainty, act opportunistically, and continue delivering long-term value for our shareholders. Onto the last slide before Q&A, slide 54 for those online. We have covered a lot of ground today, so allow me to leave you with the following key points. Market conditions are very positive. Ardmore has been able to capture this strength in a formidable way.

Our strong financial footing and agile organization enable us to respond effectively to change and take advantage of opportunities as they arise. Discipline and governance are foundational to Ardmore and continue to guide our decisions. Where to from here? Some of you might ask. Very simple: We will continue to be responsive to market shifts and opportunities, we will continue to drive operating performance, and we will continue to make responsible capital decisions, all guided by our long-term strategy. Thank you. We now welcome your questions.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: Okay, if I could just remind everybody for the Q&A session here, a couple of things. There are people on the webcast, so please do wait for the microphone before you pose your questions. And similarly, for those on the webcast, keep those questions coming in to [email protected], and I’ll be your sort of avatar in the room here. With that, hands in the room. Omar, of course. Okay.

Speaker 6: Okay. Thank you. Can you hear me? Yeah. Omar Nokta from Clarkson Securities. Thanks for the presentation. Very good detail. Maybe just sort of on your last point, Gernot, you were talking about the way forward or, you know, where do you go from here? You know, you, you mentioned early in the presentation, those three MRs you acquired last year, they’re up 15% in value, so obviously a good buy. How are you thinking about future capital allocation, considering we’ve seen these values now start to take off? Where do you put capital? Do you put capital to work, or do you stay on the sidelines?

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Yeah, I think we always like to look at capital allocation in a non-binary way, where we continue to do all of the above, all of the dimensions we described. Maybe not always within the same quarter, but for us, it’s always important that we look at capital allocation kind of across the game, really. Values have picked up a lot. We do observe that right now we could sell our 2013, 2014 build units at a price which is identical to what we bought 2017 ships for less than a year ago. So you basically get, for the same price, 4, 4+ years when you factor in that actually a year has progressed.

At the same time, these ships are also very, very fuel efficient, taking advantage of an incredible earnings environment, have been under our care for a long time, and can easily be with us for 10 years or longer. Quite happy with the fleet as it is. I think we’ve demonstrated that we can deliver outstanding performance with those assets. But at the same time, we believe that markets, as much as, of course, they are very exciting and these numbers speak for themselves, they tend to not always move in a straight line. I think if you had... Well, if you think back to a conversation that would have played out maybe exactly 1 year ago, you could have asked the question: How do you grow the fleet, given current prices?

You know, I think it just takes sometimes a bit of patience, and we continue to look for pockets of value across the full spectrum of sources of tonnage. And you, of course, have to weigh, you know, specification, fuel efficiency, age, delivery, position, all that. There has been a lot of new building activity. We haven’t been active in the new building market in a very long time, and of course, those are quite forward deliveries. So I think for us, we tend to be a bit, I almost want to say market agnostic, thereby making sure that we take capital decisions that will benefit us really, no matter what happens in the market, that continues to be very active and also very dynamic.

Speaker 6: Thank you. Can I just a follow-up to that? You mentioned the new buildings, which you’ve, I don’t think have really participated in. You know, it’s funny, we’ve come somewhat full circle where MRs are now probably the lowest... MRs and handys are the lowest in terms of percentage growth coming, which is different from, say, two to three years ago, which gave a lot of investors apprehension. Now it’s the lowest part of the order book. In general, how are you feeling about the new building market for MRs? Is that something of interest? You mentioned it’s a bit of a, you know, there’s a bit of a lag until you get delivery, but how are we thinking about new buildings from here?

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: So we haven’t been in the new building market since 2013. We took delivery of our last new building in 2015, and we always found there to be incredible value in a very lively and very liquid second-hand market. Of course, we continue to monitor how those different asset classes and different ages compare on value, and kind of really look pretty closely along that curve where we see the most compelling value. So it’s a fairly general answer towards it really depends. But again, we are very closely connected to whatever goes on in any market, and as you see an opportunity, we have demonstrated that we react very quickly and discreetly, and can make things happen at a moment’s notice.

Speaker 6: Thank you.

Speaker 8: I have two questions for James. In your comment about AI and returns, did you mean return on investment or return of investment?

Speaker 6: You could share the microphone.

Speaker 8: I’m serious. Does it mean getting your money back or making a profit? 8.3 billion people.

James Fok, Independent Non-Executive Director, Ardmore Shipping: I mean, candidly, I mean, you know, from everything that I’ve seen, that there is gonna be a significant risk to a lot of investors getting back their money at all. That being said, I think that, you know, if you look at the overall system in aggregate, that the benefits will be substantial, but the fact is the economic benefits and what happens in markets quite often do diverge.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Can I just add also one point? Of course, different companies have different AI strategies, and that’s for every company to determine. We made a decision very early on in the game, whether you, you know, you could be an investor in AI, you could be a developer of AI, or you could be really good at adopting AI. And we’re always 100% in the latter bucket because there we can, you know, we, we have guaranteed returns, and very often also on a subscription model with very little CapEx investment. I mean, for fuel efficiency, sometimes you need to do some upgrades to machinery that involves some CapEx, but our AI strategy is almost purely on a subscription basis. So if the technology that we thought would deliver great returns isn’t working out, we just pull the plug on it.

So, in that sense, for us, it’s definitely the question is not so much around return on capital, but really just is it meeting our very kind of ambitious return expectations when we deploy cash flows?

Speaker 8: As a user, you’re in a different position from the creator.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Absolutely.

Speaker 8: Yeah. And my second question, James, is: In your table about China, you know, the debt and all that stuff, and does that include local and provincial debt or just national debt?

James Fok, Independent Non-Executive Director, Ardmore Shipping: The figures on that slide, the national debt, I mean, the reality is that, and it’s not just China, I mean, a lot of countries have is actually hidden sources of debt. Yeah.

Speaker 6: Let’s go here. Yeah. If everybody could just identify yourselves, if you wouldn’t mind.

Speaker 4: Sure. Jim Sorenza from DMB Carnegie. A question for James and a question for Bart. The competition for capital as this year goes on, so let’s just focus on the US and leave the rest of the world out for a moment. Our Treasury is probably gonna issue in excess of $7 trillion worth of treasuries this year. We have about $3 trillion of corporate debt maturing this year. The Big Four spenders, mega spenders, as I call them, are gonna have a CapEx budget of $650 billion this year. Just do the math on the amount of debt that needs to be raised. How does it make you think about your capital structure as this year unfolds?

Bart Kelleher, President, Ardmore Shipping: Thanks, Jim. Good question. I think in general, and I would say not just this year, but for us, it’s always having a capital structure where you can be opportunistic when you see the opportunity for value, and as Gernot described on a capital allocation standpoint, and maintaining a really wide network of diverse sources of capital. You know, we did take advantage of, through the years, the shift with the traditional shipping banks, you know, stepping back up and then providing revolving capacity, and that was our avenue to shift from some more highly leveraged leasing structures in Asia.

But with that being said, just maintaining that network across that sphere and obviously across the different bond markets as well, I think is one that then when you see opportunity and you can place together, you know, potential investment with different slices of optimal capital structure, it makes sense to do so. But then in between, when you can simplify, you know, that also has its merit. So we think back to last quarter and redeeming the preferred, and so preferred was a great piece of capital when we needed more on our balance sheet in 2021.

And then when we did refinance, and had lower, lower interest rates on the revolver, you know, we knocked off $100 a day or so on our cash break even by redeeming the preferred.

James Fok, Independent Non-Executive Director, Ardmore Shipping: The only thing I’ll add to that is, I mean, this is a world in which fortune favors the disciplined. And, I mean, that’s one of the things that Ardmore has been very careful to do through the cycle.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: All right, I’ll lob in a couple from the webcast here. There’s a few, but they’re on a theme, so I’ll just sort of lump them here. How do you keep finding new vessel efficiency investments? Do you continue to expect to see those, and then how do you decide between that and buying a ship?

Bart Kelleher, President, Ardmore Shipping: Give a start to that one. I think, you know, yes, you know, we’ve deployed a number of efficiency investments, but when you think about what’s been achieved in other industrial sectors and then a lot of the marinization of that technology, so, you know, if we look to see what shoreside, you know, industrial manufacturing, power generation, I think there still is tremendous runway on the shipping front. We’re really only now seeing that combination of hardware and software working together. For us, we were one of the first to actually install Starlink across our whole fleet.

Having that bandwidth to then be able to have the data exchange to come shoreside, run analysis, and then give you know different orders back is one that the frontier will continue to push. That doesn’t preclude us from doing anything else. I mean, these tend to be fairly discrete, quick payback investments or pay-as-you-go service models. And so certainly I think you know kind of all of the above, but from the innovation standpoint, certainly you know core to our culture, and you’ll see us continue to make strides.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: Good. Okay, so a couple that you would have anticipated and have come in in different ways, but I’ll sort of leave it to you this way: What are we supposed to think about Venezuela and similarly, Iran right now?

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: That’s a very big question. I think typically we try to maybe stay clear of really trying to give political or geopolitical opinions or direction. There seem to be a lot of political analysts that would be much better placed to provide answers here. But what it certainly has done, it has created yet additional layers of volatility, shifts in commodity pricing, with that, commodity arbitrage, with that, of course, volatility in freight rates. Whenever trade routes are withdrawn or redrawn, or you take certain supply or demand areas out of the picture and they need to be replaced by others, obviously, that benefits tankers directly. Crude sources or crude destinations for Venezuela, of course, have already been restructured. That had an impact on the respective crude freight markets.

Freight markets are already volatile as they are in the Middle East, and I think it just adds another layer to already several layers of demand in this market.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: Good. Okay, so I’m tempted. This next one I’ve just gotten in. I’m tempted to actually ask the people in the audience here. I don’t know that that’s terribly feasible, so I’ll put it to you. What’s the market missing? What did you feel is underappreciated about what it is that you’re presenting and talking about here, such that, you know, maybe it’s not, not fully understood?

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Again, it comes back to those layers of demand.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: Mm.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: It’s a bit like, you know, you’re peeling back the layers of an onion, and you just can’t get done. I mean, we have, of course, a lot of sort of now fairly aged themes, whether it’s displacement of Russian barrels, whether it’s Red Sea transits, whether it’s big east-west dislocation. Also, just the evolution of the refining landscape that Bart, I think, presented really well, where we went from a kind of almost two-way trade in the North Atlantic, which would have been 10, 20 years ago, to those early triangulation trades, to now really lively far-fetched triangulation and combination trade. A lot of stuff is happening in Brazil at the moment.

With regard to crude inflows, crude outflows, ethanol inflows, ethanol outflows, and the same also on refined products, that I think is probably not really in the scope of public debate quite as much. And it continues. But I think, you know, overall important just to note that we... I mean, we’re guiding about $29,000 a day at 50% booked, and just at the Super Bowl, of course. My wife and kids are big Seahawks fans, and so there’s been a lot of celebration in the Ruppelt house. So I’m dying to make a Super Bowl reference. We’re at halftime, and sometimes at halftime you don’t really know how the rest of the game is gonna go, and could really go still two ways.

But I think we’re really heading into the second half of the first quarter with just so many different layers of demand and complexity that it’s hard to see huge negative surprises.

Bart Kelleher, President, Ardmore Shipping: Maybe I’ll just layer in, as the lifetime Buffalo Bills fan, which is a little tough. But we were chatting earlier, and Holly Cummings, our Global Head of Chartering, is here as well, and just how tight the market is, where, you know, you can have a conversation at the start of the week and maybe the US Gulf is somewhere in the mid-$20s, and then all of a sudden, through the week, $30s, $40s, $50s, and, you know, they’re not satisfied unless they’re actually fixing even further north of that. And when you see that in different pockets of the world geography, it just gives you that sense that you definitely have this inherent tightness, and if you’re there to capture that volatility, it can be very powerful.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: Very good. Yep, go ahead here.

Speaker 7: Yeah, Richard Schuster, Boston Partners. What do you think happens when the Russia-Ukraine war ends, if ever? Or, what do you think the implications are? How will Europe respond to Russia, flows of product? And obviously, it’s been a huge benefit to this company over the last couple of years. Do you think that the market changes materially thereafter?

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: I can take a first stab, and Bart, let me know what you’d want to add. I think clearly the market will change, and as long as the market changes, that’s a positive. Hard to really say what the new end state would be, given that, you know, the embargo is really a, an EU embargo. It’s a European embargo, but there’s also, of course, a lot of individual governments within Europe with different views and different voices, and there’s just a lot of stuff in motion politically right now across the world. I would doubt that we’re necessarily going straight back to how it used to be. At the same time, of course, you know, the economics of the cheapest barrel will always prevail.

But you shouldn’t underestimate that also. A lot of new trade routes have been established, new trading relationships have been forged, maybe triggered by this, but once people are doing business with each other, they kind of tend to keep doing that. So I’d say definitely a change. If we were to just go back to, revert back to the status quo, that would be ton-mile negative. But I think just reverting back to how things used to be is highly unlikely, considering a lot of those new trade participants in the Atlantic from West African exports, Brazilian movements, a lot of East-West flows, on top of the California refining system. So I’d say change, yes, but not necessarily change to the worse.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: Right. From the webcast, then, time charters, and Holly got a shout-out, so we can keep it on theme here. Time charter market, there’s more of that in the deck than usual. How does that fit in? How does that... What does that say about your expectations? Sort of talk us through time charters and how they fit in.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Yeah, really a portfolio approach. I mean, in terms of revenue days for the year ahead, it’s still 82% market exposure, so we’re still a predominant spot player, and for good reason. So I wouldn’t want this to be misinterpreted as a full sort of risk-off move. But we always like to look at what we do within the company across the whole portfolio: buying ships, locking in some high-quality time charters out. There is, you know, there’s nothing wrong with having a few top oil majors at really solid rates with a two-hand over multi-year period.

Of course, that could also give us the ability, if we’re locking in visibility on earnings on yet a part of the portfolio, we can also then take a bit more risk on the other end of it. And as we’ve demonstrated, really not too long ago, we’ve just last year had an interesting, actually still on time charter, where we extended a ship for a year. I can’t quite recall the rate. It was something around 18, and then flipped it out at a, I think it was a 21 or 22. Really with no risk whatsoever on full back-to-back terms, locking in $2 million. So something we keep doing and looking at our earnings portfolio as indeed that a portfolio.

Yes, so shout-out to Holly Cummings, our Global Chartering Director from our Houston office, who’s sitting at the table over there. So, well done to, well done to the team.

Brian Degnan, Moderator, IGB Group: Okay. One more chance for the group with us here. All right. Gernot, over to you. Closing remarks, we’ll call it a day.

Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer, Ardmore Shipping: Just a thank you. Thank you again for your support. Thank you for following the Ardmore story, many, many of you over a very long period of time. It’s been a new venue. I hope it was to your liking, and I hope the food was pleasant. We’re all here to have more Q&A on a one-on-one basis and look forward to interacting with all of you. Thank you again, and wish you a great rest of the day and great rest of the year.