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MOS (February 17, 2026)

MOS Long

FREE Active Published: February 17, 2026

Entry Range

$29.00 - $30.00

Entry Mode: Touch

Stop Loss

$28.85

1.92% away

Target Price

$32.20

9.51% away

Expected Gain

+9.15%

Confidence: 76%

Time Horizon

Until Mar 1, 2026 4:00 PM

Active trade

Current Price
                            $29.41                        

                                                                -1.36%
                                since entry                            

Entry Price

$29.81

Feb 17, 2026 7:09 AM

Gains
                            -1.36%
                        

Pick Tracking

Hourly snapshots of price and risk metrics since the first tracking record.

Adjustments

Stop Loss Adjustment

Feb 17, 2026 9:09 AM

Tighten stop loss closer to current price to protect gains amid recent price decline and negative news.

Stop Loss: $27.90 → $28.75

Stop Loss Adjustment

Feb 17, 2026 10:10 AM

Tighten stop loss to limit downside as price approaches stop.

Stop Loss: $28.75 → $28.90

Stop Loss Adjustment

Feb 18, 2026 11:23 PM

Tighten stop loss to just below recent low to protect modest profit

Stop Loss: $28.80 → $28.85

Trade Thesis

MOS is holding above rising 20/50-day averages (SMA20 ~28.47, SMA50 ~26.27) after a strong 1–3 month upswing, offering a pullback entry back into trend support. A push toward the 200-day area (SMA200 ~31.06) and prior overhead supply provides a realistic 5%+ swing target.

Key Risks

Agricultural nutrient names can reverse quickly on commodity pricing and demand headlines.
A deeper market risk-off move could pressure cyclicals and break the 20-day/50-day support area.
Recent downgrade/weak preliminary results headlines can cap upside and increase volatility.

The Big Idea — Mosaic poised to bounce higher

MOS is pulling back to its rising 20- and 50-day moving averages after a recent run; cheap valuation (~14× forward earnings), a ~3% dividend, and stabilizing commodity fundamentals make it an attractive materials-sector,

The Big Idea

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) stands poised to bounce higher as fertilizer stocks regain favor. After a 13% run-up over the past quarter, MOS is calmly pulling back to its technical lifelines – the rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages – and looks set to resume its climb. With the S&P 500 friendlier to beaten-down cycleds and inflation lingering, investors are hunting for deep-value plays. Mosaic checks the box: it trades at a modest ~14x forward earnings with a juicy 3% dividend (and a bargain 0.74× book value) (www.kiplinger.com). In short, MOS is emerging as one of the materials sector’s most compelling long ideas.

What’s Changed / Why Now

Over the past few weeks, Mosaic has digested recent gains without breaking critical support. The stock remains well above its 20-day (~$28.50) and 50-day (~$26.30) moving averages – evidence of intact bullish control. Market jitters on ag fundamentals have eased, setting the stage for a classic sector rotation play. The hard truths of a tough farm economy (even Deere recently warned farmers that “another difficult year ahead” may be coming (www.axios.com)) are already baked in, meaning any short-term stress could stave off selling rather than spark panic. Buyers are now stepping in on that fear. Meanwhile, commodity prices for phosphate and potash have stabilized on tight global supplies – a structural tailwind to Mosaic’s pricing power. In short, MOS is basing near an attractive zone and looks ready to re-accelerate once broader selling abates.

Catalysts Ahead

Seasonal Demand Cycle – Spring planting is looming. Farmers typically lock in fertilizer orders well before March, and any indication of higher acreage or global demand will flow through to Mosaic’s top line.
Q4 Earnings (Late Feb/Early Mar) – MOS reports quarterly results soon. Even a modest beat on yields or tight supply commentary could send shares higher, given the low bar after last year’s doldrums.
Commodity News – Watch Nitrogen/Phosphate/Potash price reports. Another uptick in crop prices or supply constraints (e.g. Belarus/Russia sanctions) could lift fertilizer spreads.
Technical Breakout – If MOS can hold $29–30 and turn up, it will snap out of its pullback. A rally through $30.50–31 would confirm a recapture of the 200-day SMA and could trigger fresh momentum buying.

The Numbers That Matter

Valuation: Mosaic trades around 14× forward earnings and just 0.74× book value (Kiplinger calls it a top materials buy for these reasons) (www.kiplinger.com). That’s dirt-cheap for a company generating over $700M in EBITDA a quarter.
Dividends: 3.2% yield, rising steadily – a nice income cushion while we wait for the stock to run.
Profitability: Q3 2025 operating income was ~$427M (12% margin) on $3.45B in sales – solid footing for the year’s final quarter. Mosaic has shown it can crank up earnings when prices turn.
Debt & Liquidity: Reasonable leverage (EV/EBITDA ~7.5×). A stronger cycle could see free cash flow surge beyond the ~$228M achieved last quarter.
Technicals: After a ~14% gain in 3 months, MOS is simply retesting trend support. The RSI is mid-range (~60 on our data), hinting more room to run before overbought.

Technical / Price Action Context

MOS’s chart is a textbook “trend pullback” setup. The stock carved out major gains into early 2026, then retraced only modestly. Crucially, it hasn’t cracked its 20-day or 50-day moving averages. This is exactly the kind of dip active traders love – a second chance to buy a breakout candidate. In fact, our entry zone of $29.00–$30.00 sits right on this converging support. From there, the path of least resistance is higher: the 200-day SMA around $31.06 lines up as the next logical target area – a zone coinciding with our $32.20 price objective. At that level, Mosaic would clear its last swing high and engage the next supply zone, potentially unlocking a 5–10% move in the short run. We’re aiming for a disciplined play on this bounce, with a protective stop at $27.90 (below recent lows and the 50-day MA) to keep risk tight.

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Cyclicality & Commodities: Fertilizer stocks swing with crop prices and global demand. A sudden drop in corn/soy prices or easing of supply constraints could deflate margins faster than expected. (Recall how swiftly farmers’ sentiment turned when Deere lowered its forecast (www.axios.com)).
Market Risk-Off: A broad market swoon, especially in cyclicals or commodities, could break MOS’s short-term support and invalidate the setup. Our stop at $27.90 helps limit that danger.
Company-Specific News: Any downgrade from analysts or a weaker-than-expected earnings release could inject volatility. Mosaic has historically responded to this risk by retracing, so disciplined stops are key.

Bottom Line

Mosaic’s risk/reward looks decidedly one-sided. The stock is already off its highs, but key technicals are holding and valuations are as cheap as they’ve been in years (www.kiplinger.com). With spring planting season around the corner and commodity tailwinds improving, the setup is clear: accumulate MOS against support at $29–30 and ride the next upswing toward $32+. At 9+% upside from here (with a healthy dividend cushion), this pullback is the perfect buying opportunity. Bottom-line: be patient around $29, and let the inevitable rebound play out.

Not financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before trading.

Key Catalysts

Seasonal Demand Cycle — spring planting and pre-March fertilizer orders could lift top line
Q4 Earnings (Late Feb/Early Mar) — a modest beat or tight supply commentary could send shares higher
Commodity News — Nitrogen/Phosphate/Potash price moves or supply constraints (e.g. Belarus/Russia sanctions) could widen spreads
Technical Breakout — holding $29–30 and rallying through $30.50–31 would confirm recapture of the 200-day SMA

Why This Trade Plan Makes Sense

Entry Logic

Entry zone of $29.00–$30.00 sits on converging support (rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages); accumulate MOS against support around $29–30.

Stop Logic

Protective stop at $27.90, placed below recent lows and the 50-day moving average to limit downside risk.

Target Logic

Primary price objective $32.20 (clears last swing high and aligns with 200-day SMA ~ $31.06); potential short-run upside of ~5–10% (noted ~9+% upside from current levels).

Time Horizon Logic

Short-to-near-medium term (weeks to a few months) into spring planting and the upcoming Q4 earnings period (late Feb/early Mar).

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Cyclicality & Commodities: downturns in crop prices or easing supply constraints could compress margins
Market Risk-Off: a broad market swoon, especially in cyclicals/commodities, could break short-term support
Company-Specific News: analyst downgrades or weaker-than-expected earnings could inject volatility

Not financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before trading.

Performance Tracking

Max Favorable Excursion (MFE) +2.15%

Max Adverse Excursion (MAE) -3.16%

Entered At Feb 17, 2026 7:09 AM @ $29.81