Moncler shares moved lower on Thursday as market participants parsed recent sales trends that suggest momentum eased heading into March, a development that weighed on the stock despite the group's first-quarter results beating analyst projections the previous day. By 11:44 GMT in Milan trading the shares were down 2.7%.
Company data show retail sales increased 14% in the first quarter of 2026. That headline growth reflected a particularly robust January followed by an exceptionally strong February - the latter credited largely to the timing of a late Chinese New Year. Management reported, however, that March experienced a step-down from those earlier months, and that April is so far tracking roughly in line with the softer March pace.
Executives also highlighted a noticeable deterioration in tourism flows into EMEA when comparing March and April to January and February, with Asian consumers singled out as the most affected group.
Market analysts questioned the underlying monthly pattern behind the 14% quarterly retail increase. In a note, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Edouard Aubin directly asked: "Given Moncler retail was up +14% in 1Q26, would it be fair to assume that March was up +HSD%?"
The report from Morgan Stanley flagged the Chinese nationality cluster as the quarter's standout, noting double-digit growth and estimating that this cohort likely exceeded 20% growth in Q1 - a sharp acceleration from the low double-digit rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. Customers from Korea and Japan reportedly grew close to double digits, whereas American and European buyers provided more modest single-digit gains.
Retail expansion also contributed to the quarter's headline number. Management indicated space opening added roughly four percentage points to the 14% retail growth, which implies like-for-like growth of about 10% for the quarter. Morgan Stanley's breakdown further estimated that pricing contributed in the mid-single-digit range, volumes were a modest positive, and product mix added an incremental tailwind.
Looking forward, investors are focused on the group's planned flagship on New York's 5th Avenue. The store is slated to open in September 2026 and will cover approximately 2,000 square metres - around ten times the footprint of an average Moncler outlet. The opening will be followed by the eventual closure of the Madison Avenue site, prompting questions about how much of the new location's initial sales will be genuinely incremental versus transferred from the relocated store.
Morgan Stanley raised tactical questions around the launch execution, asking: "Will Moncler launch a large campaign and multiple activations alongside the flagship opening? The Moncler 5th Avenue flagship is technically a relocation/expansion, as Moncler will be closing its Madison Avenue store in 2027 we believe," the analysts wrote.
On consolidated sales, Moncler reported first-quarter group revenue of 881 million euros, ahead of the analyst consensus cited at 827 million euros. Regionally, Asia - which accounts for roughly half of group revenues - grew 22% year-on-year, while the Americas rose 7%. EMEA was the laggard, with sales down 1% and, according to the company, "penalised by relatively subdued tourism trends into the region and a weak online performance."
Implications for markets and sectors
- Luxury retail: The mixed regional performance highlights uneven demand across geographies and the sensitivity of high-end apparel sales to tourism and timing effects.
- Retail real estate and store strategy: The planned 5th Avenue flagship and subsequent Madison Avenue closure underscore a strategic shift in store footprint and the importance of activation plans around large format openings.
- Equities and investor sentiment: Short-term share performance appears responsive to monthly cadence in store sales and tourism indicators, even when quarterly results beat expectations.