BofA Global Research moved Deutsche Boerse from a "neutral" to a "buy" rating on Friday and lifted its price objective to €300 from €250. The upgrade follows a reworking of BofA's estimates that reflects stronger earnings expectations tied to elevated trading volumes and a notable increase in net interest income (NII).
The stock was trading at €259.50 at the time of the note and was reported up 2.4% at 07:15 ET (11:15 GMT).
BofA's updated model incorporates a 6-7% increase in cash earnings per share versus prior forecasts and positions the brokerage's projections roughly 2-6% above Visible Alpha consensus for 2026-2028. The research team called Deutsche Boerse "best positioned among European exchanges in the current environment for greater volumes and NII on higher rates and cash balances," pointing to double-digit year-on-year volume gains in the first quarter of 2026 across cash equities, fixed income derivatives and commodities.
On a line-item basis, BofA raised its 2026 revenue estimate to €7.87 billion from €7.62 billion and increased its 2026 EPS forecast to €12.09 from €11.33. The brokerage also lifted earnings projections for the subsequent years, with 2028 EPS now seen at €14.75, up from €13.82.
Net interest income is a central piece of the upward revision. BofA now expects 2026 NII of €594 million versus a prior forecast of €454 million, a figure that the analysts say would represent about 19% of profit before tax. That view is supported in the note by rising interest rates and cash balances, which the research team said rose 23% quarter-on-quarter.
Trading and clearing activity remain important revenue drivers in BofA's outlook. The brokerage projects trading and clearing revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in the first quarter, contributing to an overall first-quarter revenue estimate of €1,628 million. For profitability, BofA models EBITDA at €1.01 billion for the quarter, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with an implied EBITDA margin of 62%.
Commodities trading is highlighted as a growth area, particularly activity routed through the European Energy Exchange. BofA expects commodities revenues to climb 14% year-on-year in the first quarter and to increase 10% across 2026. In 2025, commodities made up 26% of trading and clearing revenues and around 10% of group revenues.
On valuation, BofA notes Deutsche Boerse trades at approximately 18x estimated 2027 cash price-to-earnings, which the brokerage described as "undemanding." The new €300 price target implies a re-rating to roughly 21x that same metric.
The analysts also pointed to potential upside from the proposed Allfunds acquisition, estimating about 9% EPS accretion if the deal receives approval; that potential is not included in BofA's current forecasts. From a capital allocation perspective, BofA expects the company to generate continued free cash flow that would support share buybacks of €300 million annually after 2026, following a €500 million repurchase planned for 2026.
Overall, the note reflects a combination of stronger trading volumes, higher-than-previously-expected net interest income, and sustained free cash flow generation as the basis for the upgrade and higher target price.