Key projection - China is expected to consume 753 million tons of oil in 2026, a 4.9% decline from 2025, after consumption rose 3.6% the prior year, according to a report from PetroChina’s research division.
Production and capacity - The report forecasts crude oil production of 217 million tons in 2026, a 0.5% increase relative to the previous year. It also anticipates that oil refining capacity will reach 963 million tons per year in 2026, representing an addition of 15 million tons to current capacity.
Refined product demand - Refined oil consumption is projected at 324 million tons in 2026, down 6.4% from 346 million tons in 2025. That rate of contraction accelerates relative to the 3.5% decline recorded in the prior year. One exception within refined fuels is jet fuel, for which consumption is forecast to rise by 0.2% in 2026.
Medium-term outlook - The analysis indicates that Chinese oil demand is approaching a plateau and is expected to decline further to roughly 700 million tons by 2030.
Natural gas trajectory - Natural gas consumption is projected to grow between 1.3% and 2.5% in 2026, reaching between 440 and 445 billion cubic meters, up from 434.3 billion cubic meters in 2025. The report sees gas demand increasing further to a range of 530 to 550 billion cubic meters by 2030.
Petrochemicals and materials - New ethylene capacity additions are estimated at 6.72 million tons per year in 2026, with 4.15 million tons of that coming from naphtha crackers. Demand for polyolefin elastomers is forecast to grow 21.4% in 2026, while carbon fiber demand is expected to rise 48.7% in the same year. Domestic production of both materials improved in 2025 as a share of total consumption: polyolefin elastomers increased by 11.9 percentage points and carbon fiber by 0.7 percentage points.
Implications - The report frames 2026 as a year in which oil demand in China softens materially even as domestic crude output and refining capacity inch higher. Natural gas and select petrochemical feedstocks and advanced materials are projected to expand, pointing to continued shifts in energy and industrial consumption patterns.
Data notes - All numerical forecasts and percentage changes above are drawn from the PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute report.