Overview
S&P Global Ratings changed its view on Tajikistan's sovereign credit trajectory, moving the outlook to positive from stable and reaffirming the country's long-term and short-term foreign and local currency ratings at 'B'. The rating agency said the revision reflects the potential for Tajikistan's balance of payments performance to outstrip current projections over the next one to two years.
Drivers of the outlook revision
S&P pointed to several developments bolstering the country's external position in 2025. Income inflows, largely comprised of labor remittances, rose by 47% year-over-year in the first nine months of the year. Those inflows contributed to a sixth straight annual current account surplus, which S&P estimated at roughly 14% of GDP in 2025.
Favorable gold prices also played a role. The National Bank of Tajikistan used these revenue dynamics to accumulate international reserves to a record level of about $6.4 billion, an amount equivalent to roughly 36% of GDP. S&P noted this accumulation coincided with the economy shifting to a modest net creditor position for the first time.
Domestic growth and near-term expectations
Tajikistan registered strong real GDP growth of 8.4% in 2025, alongside an increase in estimated GDP per capita to $1,650, up from $890 in 2019. S&P expects growth to slow to around 5.5% over the next few years, a moderation the agency links to an anticipated decline in remittance inflows.
Public finances and debt outlook
The rating agency forecasts that overall net general government debt will remain below 25% of GDP through 2029, a level it characterizes as modest on a global scale. Interest costs are projected to average just above 1% of government revenue over the coming years, according to S&P's assessment.
Conditions for further rating action
S&P outlined the criteria that could lead to another positive rating action: continued strengthening of the external position, evidenced by further accumulation of international reserves and improved coverage of public sector external debt. Conversely, the agency said the outlook could be reverted to stable or the ratings lowered if external or fiscal performance proves significantly weaker than expected. In particular, S&P called out the risk of a sharp slowdown in labor remittances and potential spillovers from regional geopolitical tensions as triggers for negative revisions.
Implications
The rating action reflects a shift in Tajikistan's external economics driven by large remittance inflows and elevated reserves. While these developments have improved external metrics and supported a robust growth print in 2025, the country's heavy reliance on remittances leaves it exposed to external labor market conditions. S&P's framework links further positive rating moves to sustained reserve accumulation and stronger external coverage, while highlighting the sensitivity of the outlook to remittance flows and regional risks.