ATN International: Approval Risk Clouds Tower Sale, but Balance-Sheet Boost Makes a Mid-Term Long Attractive

Hook & thesis

ATN International announced on 02/11/2026 the sale of a 214-tower Southwestern U.S. portfolio to Everest Infrastructure Partners for up to $297 million, with initial closing expected in Q2 2026 and estimated gross proceeds of $250-270 million. That headline is the key driver here: if the deal clears approvals and closes as expected, ATN will materially reduce leverage, free up cash to invest in operations, and likely remove a near-term overhang that has capped the stock despite cheap underlying metrics.

Deal approval is not a binary afterthought - it is the principal risk - and the sale will reduce annual revenue by $5-7 million and EBITDA by $10-13 million. Still, given ATN's current market capitalization of roughly $435 million, enterprise value near $912 million, and free cash flow of about $42.6 million, the potential balance-sheet improvement and clearer cash return profile favors a mid-term bullish trade. My plan: buy ATNI at $28.53, put a stop at $25.50, and target $34.00 over the next 45 trading days.

Business snapshot - what ATN does and why the market should care

ATN International runs two telecom-focused segments: U.S. Telecom (carrier services, roaming, site maintenance, tower leasing) and International Telecom (fixed, carrier, mobility and managed services in small markets including Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Guyana and the U.S. Virgin Islands). The company's model mixes recurring carrier revenue with retail mobility and fixed services in niche geographies; that mix is sensitive to regional traffic patterns and wholesale contract stability but also generates predictable cash flows when operations run smoothly.

The market cares because the announced tower sale is large relative to ATN's market cap. Proceeds of $250-270 million represent roughly 60% of the current market capitalization and, applied to debt reduction, should materially cut financing costs and reduce enterprise value pressure. That in turn could support multiple expansion for a stock currently trading at low multiples.

Hard numbers that matter

• Market cap: approximately $435 million.
• Enterprise value: about $912 million.
• Free cash flow: ~$42.6 million (latest reported).
• EV/EBITDA: ~5.27x.
• Price-to-sales: ~0.61x; price-to-book: ~0.97x.
• EPS: -$0.92 (trailing), reflecting a negative reported EPS and a -31.1x reported PE.
• Dividend yield: roughly 3.7% as indicated in public filings.
• Balance metrics: debt-to-equity around 1.28x and current ratio ~1.21x.

Put simply, ATN is inexpensive on common valuation metrics: EV/EBITDA near 5.3x and price-to-sales well under 1.0x. The company generates healthy free cash flow in absolute dollars compared with market cap, which gives management optionality to pay down debt or fund operations after the tower sale.

Valuation framing

Valuation looks compelling on a few angles. With free cash flow of ~$42.6 million versus a market cap of ~$435 million, the FCF yield is roughly 9.8% before the announced tower sale is factored in. EV/EBITDA at ~5.3x implies investors are demanding a discount versus larger, more diversified telecom peers, likely due to smaller geography exposure, leverage, and a period of negative EPS.

The announced tower sale changes the numerator and denominator of these ratios: if ATN uses $250-270 million to pay down debt, enterprise value should decline materially while the company's recurring FCF profile is less levered. That combination can support multiple expansion from current levels even if EBITDA is trimmed by the $10-13 million the company outlined.

Catalysts

• Deal progression and closing - initial close expected in Q2 2026 (monitor approvals and the buyer's financing milestones).
• Debt paydown announcements and resulting leverage ratios - clear use of proceeds toward debt reduction could spark a re-rate.
• Quarterly results and management commentary on capital allocation and dividend policy - clarity here reduces uncertainty.
• Any strategic redeployment of proceeds into higher-margin operations or tuck-in M&A that increases recurring revenue.

Trade plan (actionable)

Primary view: mid term (45 trading days). I expect most of the re-rating potential to play out as the tower sale progresses through approvals and initial close in Q2 2026. That timeline fits a mid-term swing trade where the market can re-price ATN as leverage falls.

Plan specifics:

• Entry: $28.53 (current price).
• Stop loss: $25.50 - a hard stop below the 10-day SMA (~$26.71) and a level that limits downside if deal sentiment deteriorates.
• Target: $34.00 - a ~19% upside that discounts a modest multiple expansion tied to deleveraging and removes some premium for political/approval uncertainty.
• Time horizon: mid term (45 trading days). If the deal shows clear progress toward closing, capital can remain allocated and the stop can be trailed to protect gains. If progress stalls, reduce sizing or exit to limit exposure to approval risk.

For conservative traders: consider reducing position size and treating this as a 2-step trade - partial entry near $28.50 and add on confirmatory news (e.g., regulatory sign-off or binding closing conditions met).

Risks and counterarguments

Below are the principal risks that can invalidate the trade thesis, followed by a stronger counterargument to the bullish view.

• Deal approval or closing risk: The tower sale is contingent on approvals and buyer financing. Any hiccup, renegotiation of price, or protracted regulatory review could cause a material repricing and leave the company with the same leverage and reduced investor confidence.
• Revenue and EBITDA hit: Management expects the sale to reduce annual revenue by $5-7 million and EBITDA by $10-13 million. If the market focuses on lost EBITDA and adjusts multiples downward, valuation gains from debt paydown could be offset.
• Leverage and interest costs still meaningful: Even after a significant paydown, ATN's debt position and interest coverage matter. If interest rates or refinancing terms are unfavorable, the balance-sheet benefit could be muted.
• Dividend sustainability and cash allocation risk: The market rewards clear capital return policies. If management uses proceeds suboptimally or the dividend is cut to shore up operations, the stock could underperform despite deal completion.
• Technical/market risk: The stock is trading near its 52-week high ($29.80), the RSI is elevated (~72.7), and short-volume activity has been meaningful in recent sessions. These factors raise the risk of sharp pullbacks on negative headlines.
• Counterargument - The market may view the sale as a concession rather than de-risking: Selling a predictable, low-capex tower asset reduces recurring revenue and EBITDA and could signal management's preference to shrink rather than grow the business. If investors view the sale as a retreat from growth, the multiple may compress even after debt reduction.

What would change my mind

I will revise the bullish stance if any of the following occur: the buyer indicates difficulty securing financing or seeks to renegotiate price; management reveals that proceeds will not be prioritized for debt reduction; the company materially reduces or suspends the dividend; or subsequent quarterly commentary shows the core business weakening (meaningful churn in carrier contracts or material declines in international volumes).

Conversely, I will upgrade conviction if the company announces firm closing timelines backed by escrowed proceeds, publishes clear pro forma leverage targets after paydown, or outlines a credible plan to redeploy freed cash into higher-return initiatives that materially offset the lost EBITDA from the tower sale.

Conclusion

ATN is a tactical buy here for traders willing to accept deal execution and approval risk. Valuation is cheap, cash flow is meaningful relative to market cap, and the announced tower sale - if it closes as expected - should materially improve the balance sheet and reduce financial drag. That combination makes a mid-term long with tight risk control the most pragmatic way to play the setup: participate in the potential re-rate while limiting downside if approval issues emerge.

Trade summary: Long ATNI at $28.53, stop $25.50, target $34.00, horizon mid term (45 trading days). Reduce size or exit on stalled deal progress or adverse guidance.