Wedbush technology analyst Dan Ives has compiled a list of 10 developments he believes could arrest the recent downturn in the technology sector and alleviate the so-called AI "ghost trade" overhang. With 25 years of experience on Wall Street, Ives framed his case by pointing to past episodes in which market narratives proved overstated.
Ives cited two historical examples to illustrate market overreactions. He recalled forecasts from the mid-2000s suggesting Microsoft’s move into cybersecurity would wipe out the industry, yet the RSA Conference in San Francisco grew from roughly 3,000 annual attendees to about 40,000. He also noted that a decade ago many expected Intel to dominate the chip landscape while Nvidia was viewed narrowly as a supplier of gaming chips - a view that shifted as Nvidia became central to the AI era.
Against that backdrop, Ives described the present narrative - that AI threatens every industry and that software is the primary at-risk sector - as echoing prior overreactions. He observed that capital expenditure is approaching $700 billion this year, yet concerns linger that AI startups could disrupt large, established technology companies.
To counter the prevailing bearish narrative, Ives listed 10 specific developments that could reignite the tech AI trade. These are:
- OpenAI completing a $100 billion funding round.
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reiterating strong AI chip demand on the next week’s conference call and the company exceeding expectations.
- Oracle achieving early success in its $45 billion to $50 billion capital raise.
- Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) demonstrating AI monetization in its earnings and guidance.
- The start of software mergers and acquisitions involving larger public companies.
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) releasing the first phase of its Siri AI, initiating the consumer AI chapter.
- CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) becoming the first cybersecurity company to meaningfully monetize AI in its next earnings report.
- AI monetization appearing in March results from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW).
- Meta (NASDAQ:META) and Google ramping up digital advertising AI monetization in the first half of 2026.
- Enterprises beginning to implement Claude and encountering scaling and security issues.
Ives presented these items as potential catalytic events that, if realized, could change investor sentiment and restart demand for AI-related technology exposures. Several of the items relate to early monetization signals - from software vendors and cybersecurity firms - while others focus on large funding events and chip demand confirmations that would directly affect semiconductor sentiment.
The list mixes company-specific milestones (for example, earnings or product launches) with broader market developments such as a wave of software M&A and large-scale funding rounds. It also flags operational challenges - specifically the potential scaling and security problems enterprises might encounter when deploying models like Claude - as part of the near-term landscape.
While Ives frames these developments as catalysts, the outcomes depend on whether the named events occur and whether they deliver the monetization or demand signals investors expect. The analyst’s view draws on historical examples of market mispricing and emphasizes concrete, observable milestones that could alter the narrative around AI and technology valuations.