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Reliance Inc. faced fresh skepticism from Wall Street this week as analysts at J.P. Morgan and BMO Capital Markets independently reduced their near- to medium-term expectations for the metals service center operator. Both firms highlighted stalling gross margins and a stretched valuation multiple as primary reasons to step back from the stock.
Analyst actions and price targets
J.P. Morgan set a December 2026 price target of $330, implying roughly flat upside from current levels. BMO Capital Markets trimmed its target to $320, which the firm calculated implies a 0.8% total loss after accounting for Reliance's 1.5% dividend yield.
Margin trajectory and drivers
BMO analyst Katja Jancic noted that Reliance's gross profit margin in the second half of 2025 slipped below the company's stated annual sustainable range of 29% to 31%. BMO attributes the decline to a confluence of factors: a highly competitive selling environment, a temporary shift in product mix and management's explicit emphasis on pursuing volume growth.
On a full-year 2025 basis, gross margin using LIFO came in at 28.7%, down from 29.7% in 2024, according to BMO's figures. Jancic now anticipates only a modest recovery, expecting margins to climb back into the lower end of the sustainable range in the first quarter of 2026 - a weaker rebound than she had previously forecast.
J.P. Morgan's Bennett Moore identified similar dynamics. Using FIFO accounting, he reported Reliance's adjusted gross margin eased by 50 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 28.5% in the fourth quarter, missing the company's guidance of flat-to-slightly-up.
Moore emphasized the outsized influence of aluminum on reported costs and margin volatility. Aluminum accounts for an estimated 50% share of LIFO expense while representing only about 15% of shipment volume. He tied persistent margin pressure to aluminum price swings driven in part by tariff-related volatility and noted that the aluminum-exposed semiconductor and commercial aerospace end markets remain in a destocking phase, which limits customers' willingness to accept price increases.
Earnings and operational metrics
Reliance reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.40, an 8% increase year-over-year but below the company's internal guidance range of $2.65 to $2.85. J.P. Morgan had published a pre-print estimate of $2.92. Moore pointed out that, after removing a net unfavorable year-end LIFO and income tax true-up of $0.25, earnings effectively landed at the low end of the company's guidance.
On the operational side, tons shipped rose 5.8% year-over-year, exceeding management's guidance range of 3.5% to 5.5%. Average selling prices increased 0.9% year-over-year, above the flat pricing scenario the company had outlined.
First-quarter 2026 guidance
For the first quarter of 2026, management guided adjusted EPS of $4.50 to $4.70, a range that includes a $25 million LIFO expense. J.P. Morgan's estimate for the quarter was $4.63. Company guidance called for sequential shipment growth of 5% to 7% and pricing up 3% to 5%, with FIFO gross margins modestly improving. Moore noted that buy-side expectations had been nearer to $5.00.
Valuation adjustments and estimates
BMO's Jancic observed that Reliance shares are trading at 11.5x and 10.1x her 2026 and 2027 EV/EBITDA estimates, respectively, versus historical one- and two-year forward multiples of 8x to 9x. She concluded that further multiple expansion is not warranted given the current margin trajectory. BMO's revised 2026 EBITDA estimate is $1.50 billion, down from a prior $1.58 billion, and the firm's 2026 EPS estimate is $17.31 versus a previous $18.45.
J.P. Morgan's Moore reached his $330 target by applying an 11x multiple to his 2027 EBITDA estimate of $1.59 billion. He described that 11x multiple as a premium relative to Reliance's approximate five-year average of 8.5x and one-year average of about 10x, though still below the roughly 15x multiples observed among industrial distributor peers.
Credit-strength and market position noted
Both analysts acknowledged several of Reliance's strengths. The company extended its market-share position to roughly 17% of North American metals service center shipments in 2025. Analysts also highlighted Reliance's counter-cyclical free cash flow profile and a healthy balance sheet. However, J.P. Morgan and BMO both argued that these positives appear to be reflected in the current share price.
Conclusion
The two independent downgrades signal that margin performance and aluminum-related cost volatility are central near-term risks to Reliance's earnings power and valuation. While the firm retains operational strengths, analysts at both banks now see limited upside from current levels without a clearer margin recovery.