The U.S. sugar industry is bracing for regulatory shifts that industry representatives say could compress domestic demand for the sweetener, as federal agencies move to implement stricter dietary guidance and consider tighter definitions of processed food.
Speaking at the USDA Outlook Forum, Courtney Gaine, president and CEO of the Sugar Association - a scientific body advocating for the U.S. sugar sector - outlined several concurrent developments that could reduce consumption. Among them are revamped school meal standards due to take effect next year, updated dietary recommendations that call for zero added sugars, and the growing use of GLP-1 class weight-loss medications.
Gaine said the forthcoming school meal standards may bar added sugars from kindergarten meals and will sharply curtail permitted amounts in other grade levels. She estimated that that singular policy change would reduce sugar demand by more than 130,000 short tons.
At the same event, Gaine also noted that federal agencies are working to determine what should fall under the label of "processed food," a categorization that could lead to new labeling obligations or even tax measures on certain products. Those potential regulatory outcomes, the industry argues, would add pressure on manufacturers and suppliers within the broader packaged-food ecosystem.
Industry concern is further heightened by an increase in the prevalence of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Gaine pointed to usage rising from 12% in May 2024 to 18% in November 2025, while cautioning that it is still "premature to assess the impact" of that trend on sugar consumption. "Right now it is kind of a storm, a lot of disinformation, a lot of fear," she said, adding that sugar seems to be "the low-lying fruit" for regulators despite what she described as limited evidence that restrictions will improve health.
Gaine emphasized a policy principle: "If you are going to have some policy, you should have evidence that it is going to work." She also observed that while initiatives such as the "Make America Healthy Again" movement poll well, she sees scientific proof of the effectiveness of sugar restrictions as lacking.
At the same time, proponents of reducing added sugars point to a body of research linking higher dietary sugar intake with adverse health outcomes. The article cited an umbrella review published in the BMJ that found associations between greater sugar consumption and metabolic and cardiovascular risks, and said that review supports public health recommendations to reduce added sugars in foods.
For the sugar industry, these intersecting developments - school meal revisions, potential processed-food reclassification with attendant labeling or taxation, and an expanding pool of GLP-1 drug users - represent simultaneous demand-side risks to producers, food manufacturers and institutional foodservice providers. How those risks translate into concrete market effects remains subject to the timing and specifics of regulatory actions and the evolving evidence base on consumption and health outcomes.
Source: Remarks delivered at the USDA Outlook Forum and a BMJ umbrella review referenced in public comments.